Monthly Report - November

Unlike previous seasons, I don’t intend to produce a report at the end of each month…

The reason for this is quite simple: as you all know, I’m moving the service away from being a prescriptive tipping service, so reporting on the success/profitability of the tips, seems a bit hollow.

Each of you either finds the service enjoyable/profitable – or you don’t.

It really is as simple as that.

Having said that, I didn’t say that I wouldn’t be issuing monthly reports this season  – and I know that a few of you find them quite interesting.

Also, I think it is probably worth just going through one or two things, as it is the first month of a new season (and the first month with the service, for some of you).

Consequently, I have summarise the tipping performance for November below – and also made a few general points/comments.

However, the next tipping performance summary you will get from me, will be once the season is complete…

TVB performance summary - November

Officially, there were 44 tips during the month, across 35 races.

If you had managed to back them all at the best advised price, to the recommended stake, you would have made a profit of 11pts on 13.375pts staked (so an ROI of 82%).

If you had backed them all win only, to a level stake, at the best advised price, you would have made a profit of 43pts on 44pts staked (so an ROI of just under 100%).
Well done Mark – and anyone else who follows that particular path.

For those not able to back the tips early (so, all the Info subscribers, for starters):

If you had backed them all to recommended stakes at BSP, you would have made a profit of 3.5pts on your 11pt staked (so an ROI of 32%).

Whilst if you have backed them all to a level stake at BSP, you would have made a profit 18pts on your 44pts staked (so an ROI of 41%).

Whilst a profit of 30%+ at BSP, is not to be sniffed at (I’m sure there are many services who would be happy with a profit of 30% at advised prices !), it is very noticeable just how big a ‘price crash’ the tips are suffering.

Across the month, of the 44 tips issued, only 4 ended up with a bigger BSP than the advised price - and just 2 with a longer SP than advised price.

What this means, is that in order to tip profitably at BSP, I need to be achieving an ROI of at least 50% at advised prices.

In fairness, I have now done that, on 4 of my last 5 tipping months – but it’s not an easy thing to achieve…

I think in part, it explains why there haven’t been that many tips (I have to be very selective): though that situation has also been compounded this month, by uncertainty over the ground – plus the usual issues with available prices and market strength.

All this said, I do think we were a touch unlucky not to have had a bumper first month of the season…

As you know, I target having 25% of my tips finishing first or second.

At the prices I tip, if I can achieve that, then over time, the tipping should be profitable.

During November, 19 of the 44 tips finished first or second - which is a huge 43%.
However, only 6 of the 19 won (which is much closer to the 12.5% winners I am after).

Whilst I would always expect slightly more of the tips to finish second rather than first – of the 19, I would reasonably expect a ratio of 10:9 or 11:8 (not 13:6).

Consequently, we were probably unlucky not to get 2 or 3 more winners on the month.

If those had been the trio of 16/1 shots (Foxbridge, Repeater and Whispering Harry) who all finished a very close second, then the P&L would be 12pts better off – and we all would be celebrating.
Fine lines.

Ofcourse, it wasn’t just ‘bad luck’ that cost the official P&L during the month – I made a few bum decisions, as well…

Not tipping Old Guard and Sky Khan (to name but 2), cost as least as much as the ‘bad luck’ did…

In fairness, I will always miss tipping a few winners. I take on too much to razor sharp with the tipping – and I know that many of you were on those particular horses regardless, which does soften the blow…

Aside from the numbers, I’ve been very happy with the mechanics of the service.

The daily tipping/reporting structure seems to be working well (certainly it works for me – and I’ve not had any complaints !) – and there is little doubt that the pre-season did its intended job of ensuring I hit the ground running on day 1.

I also feel comfortable with taking a couple of days off at the beginning of most weeks.
As you all are know, the racing on Monday, Tuesday & Wednesday, is generally poor – so it makes sense that I just cherry pick one of those days to operate on and take some time out on the other 2.

That should give me the best chance of being sharp enough to tackle the back end of the week – and the weekend – when things are invariably a lot busier…

The final thing I want to comment on is the forum.
It is obviously an experiment this season – and I only invested in a very basic platform to support it.

However, it is clear that it’s been a huge success – and added a whole new dimension to the service.

All things being equal, I will look to implement a much more functionally rich forum next season – and then we can find out what can really be achieved !

Talking of the forum, I plan to create a thread containing the official figures for the month - and if any of you want to post the figures you managed to achieve (plus a bit of an explanation as to why they differ from the official ones – assuming they do), then I’m sure that would act as a catalyst for another useful discussion on maximising the returns from the service.

TVB.