Daily write-up - Dec 3rd

With the abandonment of Clonmel, there are now just the 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Wincanton, Leicester and Market Rasen.

Plenty of action – but it’s a case of quantity over quality, with only a few decent races on offer.

That said, I’ve managed to find a couple of tips for the day: one solid – one speculative – and I managed to issue them both without causing complete market carnage !

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and some thoughts on a few of the days other races…

Wincanton

2:00

Shy John caught my eye on his seasonal debut at Ludlow, 3 weeks ago…

He travelled quite nicely in that race, until lack of fitness presumably seemed to catch him out, on the run for home.

That’s often the case with runners from small stables – and I would expect him to strip a lot fitter this afternoon.

Despite being 9, Shy John is relatively inexperienced in open company.

He was quite prolific in the PTP field – and has won a couple of hunter chases – but he’s only run 8 times in open company.

Those runs have resulted in just the 1 success – but that was achieved as recently as March and off the mark he runs from today, so he is a well enough handicapped horse.

He should also handle today’s testing conditions fine.

One of his 2 hunter chase wins was achieved over todays course and distance – and in heavy ground.

In terms of other positives, then I see the return of 7lb claimer, Lewis Gordon, in that light.

In short, Shy John is a very solid option in a race where I can see issues with most of his rivals.

In terms of dangers, then Aachen is the one I fear most.

He is also well enough handicapped to win – and should have no issue with today’s conditions.

His profile – and his chance – looks very similar to Shy John.
However, he was 4/1 this morning – whilst Shy John was double that price.

0.5pt win Shy John 9/1

In the following race on the card, I would expect Presenting Arms to follow up his recent Kempton win.
That was in a competitive race – and he won despite never really settling.
He has been raised 10lb for that victory – but gets to run off his old mark today (as the win was achieved in a conditional riders race).

In fairness, he does face a couple of potentially interesting rivals, in the shape of Gabriel the Great and Leviathan.
The former is making its debut for David Pipe – whilst the latter should be well suited to today conditions.

That said, I suspect that if Presenting Arms gets beaten, it is likely to be because he hasn’t recovered from last weeks race – not because his opponents are superior.

Market Rasen

1:10

I have to be honest, Oficial Ben could have been a mentioned that I nearly tipped, as opposed to a tip who I planned to mention !

It’s often fines lines – and I nearly always opt for the ‘safe’ side of them – but I’ve decided to take a small risk today.

And there is no doubt that Oficial Ben is a risk, as I think he will either win, or pull up !

The first thing that attracted me to him, was the presence of Barry Geraghty at Market Rasen.

He’s gone there for just the one ride: Matorico, who contests the previous race on the card.
That is clearly a positive for him – but then it is baffling as to why he’s not riding JPs only other runner on the card, Oficial Ben…

Clearly, most will see the absence of Geraghty from the saddle as a big negative – and it might be – I’m just not convinced…

In his place, is a 7lb claimer, Patrick Cowley – and again that’s interesting.
Jonjos record when using claimers is very good – so I’m not sure him taking the ride should be viewed as a negative.

In terms of the horse itself, then it is also very interesting…

On the back of some eye catching runs in maiden hurdles, it was sent off a well fancied 5/1 shot on it’s handicap debut at Newbury last February.
However it pulled too hard and ending up being pulled up.

It was similar story on its final outing of the year, when it wouldn’t settle – and actually bled post race.

Oficial Ben returns today, with a hood and a tongue tie – and I just have a feeling we could see a completely different horse.

The bottom line is that this is a very weak race – which I think is there for the taking.

If Oficial Ben is anything like the horse that I think connections beelive he could be, he could easily turn it into a procession – even without Barry in the saddle !

At 6/1, I figured he was worth a small risk.

0.25pt win Ofical Ben 6/1

Leicester

I did briefly toy with putting up another very speculative tip at Leicester.

Smoking Jacket runs in the opener there – and I suspect he’s another who will appear a different horse now he’s over fences.

He caught my eye a couple of times over hurdles – and as you know, I’m a big fan of his connections (Tom George and Paddy Brennan).

What stopped me, is that unlike the Market Rasen race, this one looks quite deep.

Moscow Me sets the standard – but I would also be fearful of Blanfords Gunner, The Green Ogre and Devil To Pay.

The latter in particular would almost certainly win this, if able to recapture his old form.

In the circumstances, I figured it was best to leave Smoking Jacket as a mention…

The next race on the card is a seller – and as you know, I don’t bother with those…

However, a tip from earlier this season is running in it, in the form of Lac Sacre.

I know he was disappointing when I tipped him at Southwell – and even more disappointing on his subsequent run at Exeter – but I didn’t envisage him dropping into basement company !

From a handicapping perspective, he has every chance in todays race – and he should have no issue with the ground.
His trainer, John Flint, also has a very good record at Leicester.
If you could be sure he was in any sort of form I think he would be a good bet. Ofcourse, if he was in any sort of form, he probably wouldn’t be running a seller – but all the same, I find him interesting…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.