Daily write-up - Dec 4th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Exeter, Sandown and Sedgefield.

I had a quick look at the Sedgefield card yesterday afternoon – but it was uninspiring.

There were also severe doubts over whether the meeting would actually take place (which it is doing), so I just focused my efforts on Exeter and Sandown…

And very good cards they are to.

Certainly if we had cards like these every day, there would be little to complain about…

As it happens, I opted to tip just one horse on the day – but I do think it is a very solid selection.

I’m sure I could have forced a couple more – but prices were tight – so I opted against it.

I guess that means there are a few horses you might be interested in, if late drifts occur…

Here’s the rationale for the tip – plus my thoughts on some of the days other races…

Exeter

1:40

As solid selections go, I think Wooodford County will take a bit of beating…

He has ticks in literally every box – and granted a bit of luck in running, I can’t see how he won’t go close this afternoon…

In fairness, ‘luck’ deserted him on his last run, at Sedgefield.

He belted the very first fence that and never seemed to fully recover from that.

On the plus side however, that meant he got a relatively easy first run of the season and the handicapper thoughtfully dropped him a pound for it.

Consequently, he’s now back on the mark from which he was last successful.

That was almost exactly 12 months ago, when he won a reasonable handicap chase at the Newbury Hennessy meeting – under todays pilot, Ciaran Gethings.

Gethings wasn’t on board on his next outing, when he was sent off 8/1 joint fav for last seasons Welsh National (where he finished unplaced): but he was back in the saddle when he ran a stormer to finish third, both  in the Eider, at Newcastle – and the Midlands Grand National, at Uttoxeter.

All 3 of those races, were a higher class than todays – and the fact that Woodford County was able to run with such credit, suggests he will have a very good chance in todays lesser company.

He’ll certainly have no issue with the 3m6f trip – or the soft ground – so the case for him in pretty strong…

That said, I do have a niggling concern that he might find one too good – however, it is very difficult to know which one that might be…

St Dominic and Auvegant are potential improvers: but neither is proven at the trip – and St Dominic also has a lot of weight to carry.

Gorgehous Liege could be a danger if he gets into a rhythm up front – but that’s not guaranteed and it’s the only way I could see him winning.

Sybarite would be a huge danger, if his jumping improved – but there is no reason to think it will: whilst I was very taken by the run of Nail’M last time at Chepstow – but that was on the back of a long absence, so I would be fearful he might bounce…

That said, I might be tempted to save stakes on him.

However, the one I nearly made an official saver, is As De Fer.
We were on him last time, when he bumped into one at Ffos Las.

However, he showed that day, he is back in decent form.

Ground and trip will hold no fears for him – it really just comes down to his well-being…

At 8/1, he would have a 0.125pt saver - at 6/1, I’ve let him pass.

Cleary, this race is no formality for Woodford County – but whereas there are question marks against all his rivals – there aren’t any against him.

Hopefully the question marks will catch out the others, leaving him to come home in front – but I’ve staked him with a bit on the place side, just in case, things don’t pan out exactly that way…

0.25pt win, 0.125pt place Woodford County 8/1

The previous race on the card (1:10) looks most likely to go to one of the market leaders – though I wouldn’t be absolutely sure of that…

Rouge et Blanc and Mon Successeur fought out a very close finish at Newbury, exactly a week ago and choosing between the pair based on that form, is nearly impossible.

It will almost certainly come down to which one has recovered best from the race.

That said, both of them could have their work cut out to beat Otago Trail.

A very decent novice hurdler, he lost little on his chasing debut here behind On Tour last month.
He will appreciate the step up to 2m3f today.

If there is to be a shock in the race, Midnight Lira is the one most likely to cause it.
She caught my eye last time over a trip that stretched her stamina.

Back down in distance, and with that run under her belt, I could see her going well.

I guess the issue is that she doesn’t look to have much in hand of her mark – and has less scope for improvement than the market leaders.

That said, you’ll rarely get every box ticked on a 25/1 shot…

The third race of interest on the Exeter card, is the novice chase at 3:20.
This looks at absolute cracker – and favourite, Calipto, sets a fair standard.
A decent hurdler, his 2 runs over fences have shown that he could be at least as good in that discipline.

However, I just wonder if he will be able to give 5lb to a race fit Tea for Two.

He would have been at least the equal of Calipto over hurdles – and has the size and scope to jump a fence.
In truth, I’m not sure why it’s taken two runs this season to get him over fences – but maybe connections wanted him spot on fitness wise, before tackling the bigger obstacles.

He should be that today - and I think that 2m3f round Exeter is the perfect place to start him…

Even with all the uncertainty, I was tempted by the 7/2 on offer – I would almost certainly have acted if he’d gone to 4/1.

However, he went the other way – so it is a watching brief.

That said, it won’t surprise me if I watch him upset the favourite - and a couple of other potentially decent sorts.

I think Tea for Two could be very useful over fences..

Sandown

The handicap chase at 1:30, could be a real sight to behold…

There could be ridiculous amount of pace in the race – so watching the field get over the railway fences could well be something worth seeing !

De Faoithesdream, Artifice Sivola and Vision Des Champs are all likely to go off like scalded cats.

If I were a betting man, my money would be on Artifice Sivola wining the race to the first – but I would be a bit worried that he might be going so fast, he could struggled to stand up on the other side !

As a consequence, Vision Des Champs and De Faoithesdream are likely to have to take a lead - and that isn’t there preferred running style.
I actually think the former might get away with just sitting in behind – and he will much prefer today’s decent ground – my big issue with him, is the 12st3lb he has to carry…

With race tactics looking absolutely key, I just can’t bring myself to get involved with the race (if things pan out differently, it will become a completely different race).

That said, there are quite a lot in the race I would be prepared to take on (due to ground or trip) – and if it does get run as I expect, Noche De Reyes could see the race panning out perfectly for him.

Maybe one to play in running – if he’s sat in fourth or fifth, after a couple of fences…

In the novice handicap chase at 2:05, I would have taken a risk on Like Sully, if the 20/1 available yesterday evening, had still been available this morning.

However, it wasn’t…

He was backed overnight and 12/1 was the best you could get at 8:30.
I guess that could still be a good bet, depending on the source of the cash – but without that knowledge, he now looks priced about right…

In truth, it’s a nearly impossible race to get a handle on, with most of the runners making their fencing debut.

I just felt he might be worth a small risk, based on reasonable hurdles form and the fact he has had a pipe opener this season.

Of the others, then Venetia’s Cloudy Beach was one to catch my eye – but he’s a 5/1 shot, and I don’t see a lot of margin in that price…

The final race of interest on the Sandown card is the amateur riders race at 3:10.

I’ve been taken by the recent performances of Conas Taoi and whilst I could see him coping with a 10lb rise in the weights for his recent wins, I will be intrigued to see if he can also handle a step up in grade.
Certainly the opposition he is facing today s much stronger than he has faced previously – so we will learn a lot more about him.

Of his opponents then Silvergrove looks fascinating on his debut for Ben Pauling.
A bit of a serial underachiever, if Pauling has sorted him out, he could be very well handicapped.

Umberto Dolivate is probably the solid one – but I think the race is more likely to go to one of the bottom two…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.