Daily write-up - Dec 2nd

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Ludlow and Catterick.

There’s not a lot going on at Catterick, but the Ludlow meeting is quite interesting (as is often the case there).

They put on 3 reasonable handicap chases and I spent quite a lot of time working through them yesterday afternoon.

I actually thought I’d found something I would be able to tip – and was quietly optimistic that it would go under the radar.

The horse in question was Goodtoknow, who makes his seasonal debut in the Boyne Cup.

When the betting on the race opened up at 4:30, he was a 12/1 shot.

I would have been quite happy with that – in fact I would have been quite happy with anything down to 8/1 (I reckoned he is about a 6/1 shot).

2 hours later, and you couldn’t beat 4/1…!

Now I’m sure some will say that a horse doesn’t know its price etc. – but connections do !

Nobody will have been able to get any money on that horse at any kind of a price.

I suspect it will drift out to much closer to my 6/1, come the off (maybe even bigger).

Whether it will win today, is a different matter – as is whether its chances will have been compromised by the early backing of it.

Suffice to say, it became a race that I felt I had to sit out – which is a shame, as I think the favourite is vulnerable.

Anyway, I mention this, just so you know that I am desperately looking for tips – they are just incredibly difficult to find and issue during the midweek.

Before I go on to my thoughts on the days races, just a final reminder that Daves Naps competition starts today.
I think that he has managed to get 17 ‘runners’, which is a great achievement.

Well done Dave – and good luck to everyone who has entered.

If you now which that you had, I suspect it’s not too late.

Just post on the forum and I’m sure Dave will sweep you up (metaphorically speaking !).

Here’s my thoughts on some of the days races…

Ludlow

He first interesting handicap chase on the Ludlow card, is the novice chase at 1:10.

I’m not surprised that Gaelic Warrior has been installed fav – but I wouldn’t touch him at 2/1.

That’s not to say he can’t win – but there are 4 or 5 in the race who are potentially big dangers.

I would be happy enough to take on the original second fav, Benability, as well.

He should have won last time – but showed temperament and I would be concerned that might happen again today on his first run over fences.

My 3 against the field are: The Bugler, Truckers Highway and Railway Benefit.

Truckers Highway was leading at the second lasting the race in which Gaelic Warrior came fourth, last time - and I think he has a very similar chance to the fav, based on that form. He is a potential EW option.

Railway Benefit makes his debt for a new stable today – but was a decent PTPer.

He’s nearly impossible get a handle on - but could be reasonably handicapped.

However, The Bugler is the one who interested me most.

Formerly trained in Ireland, he’s had just 3 runs over hurdles for Evan Williams.

He was major eye catcher last time out – and today switches to fences.

I have some slight concerns about that - and about his ability to stay the 2m4f trip.

However, he looks a likely sort for Williams at a track where he tends to do well – and the money has convinced me to make him my Nap of the day (even if he’s not an official tip!).

There’s a decent mares handicap hurdle at 1:40 and it looks between the top 3 in the betting…

Strictly on the form book, I think Allez Encore should take the beating – and as such, she looks a fair bet at 9/2.

However, I would be very fearful of the other 2…

Tara Mist was very well backed for a better race than this on his seasonal debut – but disappointed.

Henry Daly invariably does well at Ludlow – and if Tara Mist shows that running wrong, she is likely to go very close today.
However, she still might not be able to cope with favourite Dusky Legend.

She is clearly well thought of – and starts life on a very attractive handicap mark.

If she has the ability to match her reputation, and is fully tuned up on her seasonal debut, I would expect her to win.

The afore mentioned Boyne Cup (off at 2:10) is the high light of the card.

As I’ve already said, I would be quite happy taking on favourite Kings Massini – over a trip that will stretch his stamina, particularly on ground softer than he likes.

I would also be quite happy taking on quite a few others – which made it a race potentially to be interested in…

Goodtoknow was the one I wanted to be with  - but he’s not bomb proof – and the early price collapse may have affected his chance.
The other two of potential interest, are Howard’s Legacy and Tinker Time.

My issue with Howard’s Legacy is that Aidan Coleman is at Catterick (admittedly riding for John Ferguson – but I still see it as a negative): and I’m not sure how much the horse has in hand of his mark.

I think Tinker Time could have a fair bit in hand of his mark –and he would have been a tip, if he hadn’t run so poorly last time out.

In fairness, his race was effectively ended by an early mistake at the water jump –and if that had been the only issue, I would have taken a risk on him today.

However, he was not travelling or jumping in that race from a very early stage – and simply, a different horse is going to have to turn up today, if he is to win.

Now that might just happen – stranger things do – but I couldn’t bring myself to tip him, in the hope that there had been an issue last time, which has now been resolved.
That said, if that was the case, I think he could win !

The final race of interest on the Ludlow card, is the chase at 2:40.
Again, I would be happy to oppose a few – but still couldn’t quite get it to the point where I was prepared to tip.

Certainty, one I would find difficult to oppose, is Jayo Time – and as he’s favourite, I was unlikely to be tipping him either !

He won a very similar race over course and distance a week ago, and must have a good chance of following up, with just a 7lb penalty.

However, I could construct a case for Vivaccio and Sir Valentino – whilst both My Brother Sylvest and Lightening Rod are potentially well handicapped, if they did spring back to life.

In short, too many in with chances and no compelling route into the race…

Catterick

The only race of significant interest at the Yorkshire track, is the beginners chase at 1:50.

My initial feeling was that Stiletto would take the world of beating after a very satisfactory debut over hurdles, for Paul Nicholls at Haydock.

And I still think he will run well – but he faces at least a couple of significant dangers in the shape of Amore Alato and Only Orsenfoolsies.
The former was very disappointing on his chasing debut – but he’s had a month to get over that and now has Dickie in the saddle.

The latter hasn’t run over jumps for 18 months, but he was a decent hurdler and has maintained his form on the flat.

He’s rated 90 in that discipline, which should give him every chance today – provided his jumping cuts mustard.

I’ll be a little surprised if the winner comes from outside those 3 – though I’ll obviously be keeping a close eye on Minellaforleisure, who I tipped on his chasing debut at Huntingdon, but who ran disappointingly…

Here’s hoping you have a great day, if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.