Daily write-up - Dec 9th

The abandonment of Hexham, means that there is just the one NH meeting this afternoon: at Leicester…

I have to be honest, I was fully expecting a day off today.

One card: which opens with a conditional jockeys novice hurdle; and has a Seller third up. Things looked quite bleak…

More than that, despite spending a fair bit of time on the big race of the day, I couldn’t find anything I was happy with.

However, I them stumbled across an angle into one of the races: and decided this morning I would take a risk on another – and before you know it, we’ve got 3 tips on the day !

It’s funny how things work out…

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts:

Leicester

1:35

My entry point to this race, is the top weight, Its a Sting.

I have a feeling that he’s a bit better than a 120 rated horse – and after spending a bit of time with the form book, I was able to pull together the evidence to back up my view.

In 2 of this 4 hurdle runs last season, I think it can be argued that he ran to rating of at least 127.

Second time over hurdles, he ran the 140 rated Arpege D’Alene to 9 lengths, suggesting he was worth a rating of around 130: whilst on his final run of last season, he was within 4 lengths of the now 134 rated Double Shuffle.
Again, that suggests It’s a Sting should be rated, closer to 130, than 120…

Ofcourse that was over hurdles and todays race is over fences.

Furthermore, on his only try over fences, It’s a Sting was pulled up at Stratford,

However he ran with a fair bit of promise that day – and was sent off 3/1 fav (suggesting better was expected).

He steps up in trip today (which I think should suit him); has better ground to contend with – and the fizz should be gone.
If I’m right and he can run to a rating around 127, I think he will take the beating…

My main issue with him, is that whilst I expect him to run well, I think he could be vulnerable to a finisher.
It’s a Sting is a galloper – and if anything is still with him jumping the last, I’ll fear the worst.

Step forward, Paddy the Deejay…

Twice a winner in PTPs, he’s looked a gradual improver since he has started running under rules…

He certainly improved with every outing last season: and after a low key run over hurdles on his seasonal debut, there were clear signs of promise on his chasing debut at Chepstow.

That was in a very hot event, and whilst Paddy the Deejay never threatened to win (the trip was too short), he finished the race better than anything.

The form of that contest looks good: Blanford Gunner and Exmoor Mist have already come out and won; whilst the runner up, Ozzy Thomas, ran a very good race to again finished second, last week.

Thoughtfully, Paddy the Deejay has been dropped 2lb for that run: but more importantly, he should be cherry ripe today –and is racing over a more suitable trip (2m4f).

In fairness, this does look quite an open race.

I respect the chances of Chicoria and Hindon Road, but I was happy to take them on at the prices.

Of the longer prices horses, then I could give both Under the Phone and Orangeaday, a chance – but hopefully they won’t be up to the standard of It’s a Sting or Paddy the Deejay.

0.25pt win Paddy the Deejay 15/2

0.125pt win It’s a Sting 15/2

3:05

This is one for those of you who like the ‘subtle signs’…

Charlie Longsdon has a very good record at Leicester – and Instinctual is his only runner on the card: Aiden Coleman currently lies clear second in the jockeys Championship – and this Instinctual is his only ride of the day.

I think that’s interesting in its own right. But what really catches me, is that this is a very poor race – not the type you would associate with either Longsdon or Coleman…

With regard to the horse, then he’s not an easy one to get a handle on.
Formerly trained by Brendan Powell, he ran 3 times over hurdles as a juvenile, finished second on all 3 occasions and managing to get a rating of 116.

After nearly 2 years on the sidelines, he reappeared in a low-grade flat handicap, for Longsodon.

Instinctual was very well backed that day – despite his long absence, going off an 11/4 shot in a 12 runner race.

He didn’t real feature that day – but clearly someone expected him to…

His only subsequent run was in a handicap hurdle at Ludlow, over 2m5f. He wasn’t anywhere near as popular in the market that day – running over a trip that appeared too far for him.

And sure enough, he again didn’t feature but he ran with real promise…

Held up close to the back, he travelled and jumped with great enthusiasm, until his stamina ran out on the run for home.

He’s been eased 3lb for that run – but more importantly, drops back to the minimum trip.

A first time tongue tie has also been applied…

Clearly, there is a deal of speculation in this one – and I am always concerned that when I tip early in low grade races, there’s a chance we will stop the horse from winning (because connections won’t be able to get a price).

That said, the subtle signs were strong: the performances last time out was eye catching – and the price was too good not to take a risk on.

Fingers crossed !

0.25pt win Instinctual 14/1

The big race of the day, is the handicap chase at 2:35.

Having tipped Cloudy Bob last time out (and been quite keen on him), he was obviously my start point for the race.

However, I’ve still no theory for why he disappointed that day – so on ground quicker than he would prefer, I had to pass on him…

The one I toyed with tipping in the race, is Foundation Man.

He is very well handicapped  - and ran with real promise on his seasonal debut at Wetherby.

I can excuse his subsequent disappointing run at Exeter on account of the ground and the trip – but I can’t excuse his most recent run at Huntingdon, where everything appeared to be in his favour…

I suspect that the horse has physical issues: and if the application of a tongue tie and Dickie in the saddle does the trick, he could easily win.

Of the others, then you have to be fearful of Diditellya – who could be anything:

It might also be significant that Leigton Aspell rides Road to Freedom (when I would guess that Cloudy Bob was also an option for him); whilst the money for Midnight Cataria could also be prophetic.

In the final race on the card, I would be quite keen on Hedley Lamarr.

Another one for the Jonjo/Dickie combination, he showed promise on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham, in a hotter race than todays.

He’s not an easy one to get a proper handle on though – and he’s hardly thrown in off a mark of 128.

That said, if his price of 11/4 holds or shortens, I suspect he will come home in front…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB