Daily write-up - Dec 28th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Leicester and Catterick in the UK – and Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

In theory, it should be quite a big day, in Ireland at least, with two grade 1 events taking place at Leopardstown.

However, in reality, it is relatively low key – at least when compared to the past couple of days….

Certainly there isn’t much to get excited about at either Catterick or Limerick – and whilst the cards at Leicester and Leopardstown are interesting, finding tips isn’t easy.

That said, I managed to unearth one.

I would have like a bigger price (wouldn’t I always !) – but I have to realistic.

If it comes home in front, I’ll be happy enough !

Here’s the rationale for the tip – and a few other thoughts…

Leicester

12:50

I’m hoping that Kerryhead Storm will be able to control this race from the front.

He’s the only front runner in the field, so should get the run of the race.

He’s also reasonably handicapped – and a previous course and distance winner.

On the back of a very good seasonal debut at Ludlow, I actually fancied him last time at the same course.

However, he ran in a race where there were a host of front runners and he was beaten very early.
I think a line can be put through that performance.

I’m sure he will perform much better in this small field – and in truth, I don’t see much that he has to beat…

The obvious one is the favourite, Moscow Me.

He has already run 2 good races this season, but is edging up the handicap as a consequence.

He might still be ahead of his mark – but I think he will find Kerryhead Storm a tough adversary.

I could have been interested in Gold Ingot – but over a longer trip.
He ran quite well, to a point, last time out, before fading. Presumably that is why he has been dropped in trip today.

However, I’m not completely convinced that is the answer.

The other two in the race, Le Fin Bois and Supreme Asset are theoretically well handicapped - but are also woefully out of form.

Either would be a danger if bouncing back today – but hopefully that won’t happen.

Ultimately, this just came down to price.

I wouldn’t want much less than 7/2 for Kerryhead Storm, but I think that is a fair enough price, so I’m prepared to take the risk.

0.5pt win Kerryhead Storm 7/2

The handicap chase at 2:00 is a real conundrum…

I could be quite keen on Valadom, if Noble Legend wasn’t in the race.

However, both horses need to front run – so something is going to give.

My guess is that it will be Noble Legend – but I am fearful that Valadom will have to go off too fast, in order to make that happen (thereby compromising his own chances).

In truth, the race is not just about a potential pace war.

A decent case can be made for a number of the other runners.

Great Link is the obvious one: he has run well on his 2 outings for the Skeltons and I can see no reason why he won’t go close again this afternoon.

Cloudy Bob is another who I would expect to go well. He is now dangerously handicapped – and will have his perfect conditions.

A case could also be made for the Italian Yob – whilst Mystifiable is the potential joker in the pack, on only his second outing over fences.

In short, the race is just too tricky to call.

However, if Valadom does somehow get an uncontested lead, I think he will prove very hard to pass.

In the final race on the card, I am quite interested in Arkaim – at a price…

He’s a decent (if slightly quirky) chaser, who gets to run over hurdles, from a mark 13lb lower than his chase mark.

That should make him interesting – and does, to a point…

Certainly I can’t see any reason why he should be a stone worse over the small obstacles.
However, I have a couple of concerns.
Firstly, I’m not sure he’ll relish the desperate ground: and secondly he could be in against some big improvers…

Black Fire and Tara Flow are the obvious ones – though there is a lot of guesswork involved with both.

The other potential concern, is that this is merely a confidence booster for Arkaim, following a recent fall over fences.

If the money came late for him (and the unexposed ones weren’t strong in the betting), I might be interested.

Otherwise, I’ll probably just watch…

Leopardstown

There’s a disappointing line up for the Lexus…

Don Poli heads the market – and rightly so – but I don’t think he’s unbeatable.

A lot will depend on the pace of the race.

If there is a searching end-to-end gallop, he is likely to win: but if it gets tactical, he could get caught out.

I would expect On His Own to make the running – but that is not guaranteed - and if nobody goes on, then it could end up a bit of a farce…

With Willie Mullins training 3 of the 6 runners, I would expect it to be a reasonably run race - but he pace niggle would remain.

Ignoring that aspect, then I did briefly consider tipping Carlingford Lough EW.

He won the Hennessy over course and distance last February and on that form has a very good chance of at least placing.
However, I would have expected him to be stronger in the market than his current 12/1, if connections really fancied him.

The other Grade 1 on the card, is the Christmas hurdle – and this looks even weaker.

It appears to come down to whether Alpha Des Obeaux (or possibly Martell Towers, if he is fully tuned), can draw the sting out of Arctic Fire, over a trip that is a good way in excess of his best…

Your guess is as good as mine, on that one.

Bryan Cooper is certainly a fair judge of pace – but I can’t see Ruby allowing him too much rope, either…

My guess is that Ruby will find a way of getting Arctic Fire home in front.

But that’s what the betting thinks too – so there’s not really an angle…

The second race on the card, is a competitive handicap hurdle.

I was initially drawn to Malt Gem, who sits near the foot of the handicap – and who was a good winner last time out.
That was over fences and he’s back over hurdles today – but off a slightly lower mark.

He is therefore well enough handicapped – and will be suited by todays conditions.
I think he’ll run well – but have a feeling that he might lack the class of some of his rivals.

JP controls the market again, via Leave at Dawn and Roll it Out – and one of those is the most likely winner.

Willie Mullins also has a couple of likely looking types in Childrens List and Valyssa Monterg: whilst Russian Bill is another potentially dangerous one.

Malt Green might be an EW bet at 20/1 – but I’ll be a little surprised of at least one of the aforementioned doesn’t prove a bit too good for him.

Finally, there is a cracking beginners chase off at 1:20.

Tell us More and Zabana are potentially high class novices - but Balbir Du Mathin and Blazer are very dangerous looking opponents.

It’s not a race where you can have a strong view (unless you are connected to one of the horses), but it is a race which could prove very informative.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.