Daily write-up - Dec 11th

There are 3 NH Meetings this afternoon: at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Bangor.

Day 1 of the 2 day International meeting at Cheltenham – and the seemingly obligatory rain hit the course, the day before...

I spent yesterday afternoon studying the form, believing that the ground today would be good – good to soft in places.

By yesterday evening, there had been 4mm of rain and it had changed to soft – good to soft in places.

All very frustrating…

Even more so, as I felt I had found a couple of horses with decent chances at big prices.

However, they want quick ground, so their chances are now reduced.

I’ve kept faith with one of them (at reduced stakes) – but ditched the other.

Here are my thoughts on most of races at Cheltenham – plus the one at Doncaster, in which I’ve tipped…

Cheltenham

12:35

We’re not quite in the position I would have liked, for this race…

When I saw yesterday afternoon, that Lord Landen was running over 2m4f on good ground, I got quite excited.

I’ve little doubt that the horse is well handicapped – due in part to the fact that he has been repeatedly run over too far, on ground too soft.

2m4f on quick ground is what he wants – and I thought he was going to get it today.

He’s certainly getting the distance - I’m just not so sure about the ground…

The going stick reading is 6.9 – and that sounds quite quick. However, the description is soft – and that doesn’t !

I’ve decided to take a small risk on him, because I’ll be gutted if he does win.
I certainly expect him to travel and look like he might win – so some of you may chose to lay him back in running, in case he doesn’t get home…

If his stamina does ebb away up the hill, then I’m hoping that Ultragold will be the one that runs him down.

He’s another horse that I’ve followed for years – and who I’m pretty sure is better than his current mark.

I find it amazing that he’s only won 1 race in this country – and that was on his seasonal debut last year, when he romped home in a fair handicap chase at Exeter.

Apparently he had undergone a breathing op. prior to that run – and I believe the same thing has happened this season.

Certainly, if he arrives here in top form, then I think he is sufficiently well handicapped to win.

I was half tempted to tip him early yesterday evening, when a few of you would have been able to get 9/1.

However I look to limit tipping the night before to races on terrestrial TV, so even thought the race was fully priced up, I opted not to.

As I feared, he was backed overnight and 6/1 was the best available this morning.

It’s a shame – but it ‘s the way things go.

Hopefully either he or Lord Landen will come home in front, to minimise the pain of missing the price !!

0.25pt win Ultragold 6/1

0.125pt EW Lord Landen 20/1

2:20

If anyone said that you could get 12/1 about a horse trained by Willie Mullins, who was the best horse on official ratings, in a conditions race at Cheltenham, you would think they were mad.

And more often than not, you’d be right – but not today…

That is the situation with On His Own – a horse who has finished second and fifth in the last 2 Cheltenham God Cups.

Ofcourse there is a reason why he’s 12/1 – todays race is run over the banks course and On His Own has only had one go at racing over banks – and that didn’t work out well…

At Punchestown lat month, he was sent off 13/8 favourite for his cross-country debut – but never featured and came home a well beaten seventh.

Based purely on that run, 12/1 would be a ridiculously short price…

So that’s the dilemma we face: whether to believe that form - or the rating he has acquired over conventional fences…

To my mind, it all comes down to price.

If he had been put in at 3 or 4/1, I wouldn’t have been remotely interested – but at 12/1, I think he’s worth a risk.

Certainly, I don’t honestly believe that Willie Mullins would be bringing him over to England, if he didn’t think there was a good chance the horse would handle the course.

In truth, no one will know for sure until the race is underway – but if he does, 12/1 on a horse capable of all but winning a Gold Cup, just 18 months ago, will look a silly price.

0.25pt win On His Own 12/1

2:55

This race presented me with a dilemma…

I really wanted to tip Oscarteea – but I’m conscious that it could be a very strong contest and he could run a blinder and still finished unplaced.

I’ve little doubt that he is a potentially well handicapped horse who has been teed up for this race.

Formerly trained by Anthony Honeyball, he transferred to Peter Bowen over the summer and ran a nice race on debut for him at Haydock.

He was staying on at the finish that day and has been stepped up in trip today.

He is a very solid selection – but unfortunately, he is meeting some potentially brilliant ones today…

Top of the list, is One Track Mind.

Already placed in a grade 1 hurdle, he could laugh at his initial mark of 139.

Next is Fingerontheswitch. He ran fourth in a very hot handicap at the Open meeting – and gets a step up in trip today.

His profile is similar to Oscarteea – and I could see him running just as well.

Then there is Monbeg Gold. Hugely progressive – it is anyones guess whether the handicapper has got to him yet…

Added to these 3, there are at least another 3, who could be considered ‘interesting’.

In short, this is potentially a very hot race.

I did consider leaving it alone – but as with Lord Landen, I would be gutted if Oscarteea then went and won.

If the principals live up to expectations, I‘ll be surprised if he can do any better than place.
However, backing him EW we can still make a small profit in that scenario – and if for some reason, they don’t perform, then we have the possibility of a good return.

0.125pt EW Oscarteea 16/1

The meeting opens with a fascinating novice chase, in which it is possible to give a chance to all 6 runners…

Interestingly, each horse met one of its rivals last time out, in a series of 3 races:

Blaklion was just ahead of Vicente when falling at the third last at Cheltenham. Vicente went on to win the race and they meet on the same terms today.

Onenightinvienna got the better of Fletchers Flyer at Exeter – but the latter was a strong favourite that day and is now 5lb better off.

Whilst Private Malone and Minella Rocca filled the places behind Silsol at Haydock – and whilst the weights are the same today, the former is expected to have made the greater progress.

In short, despite some form to work with, it’s not easy to decide who will come out on top – even in the private duals…

My instinctive feeling is that the Exeter form is the strongest on offer – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fletchers Flyer win his battle with Onenightinvienna today.
That said, I was so taken by Minella Rocco last season, I really do hope he turns out to be the real deal this season.

I find it a race impossible to have a strong view on – but a compelling watch, non-the-less…

In the handicap hurdle at 1:10, I feel you are either with A Hare Breath – or against him…

He really impressed me when taking a strong novice handicap at the Open meeting and even from a 12lb higher mark, I think he will take a lot of beating today.

Pre-race that day, his trainer Ben Pauling, suggested that the horse could be a borderline graded performer – if that is the case, then off a mark of 132 today, he would still be very well weighted.

Aside from him there is nothing that particularly stands out…
Kayf Blanco would probably be my second choice – even though I suspect his last time out defeat of Vendor, flatters him a little (and he has a 7lb higher mark to contend with).

If you are just after a winner, then I would suggest a Hares Breath; however, 2/1 in a 16 runner handicap makes him a difficult one to tip…

The handicap chase at 1:45 is a desperately difficult one to call…

If the ground had remained good, I was going to take a chance on the outsider of the field, River Maigue.

Formerly with Nicky Henderson, he transferred to the stable of Sophie Leech over the summer – and his 2 victories in novice chases suggest he has retained most of his old ability.

However, he does have a marked preference for quick ground – and I think he would need that it order to get the better of some very talented rivals…

Choosing between them isn’t easy – and I suspect the state of the ground will have quite a bearing on the result.

In terms of ‘value’ then Shuil Royale may offer a little at 9/1 – but it’s the kind of race, where no result would particularly surprise me…

Doncaster

3:30

We were on Hidden Justice last time out, when he ran at Haydock…

I was pretty keen on his chances that day, figuring that he could be a well handicapped horse.

He travelled through the race that day, in a manner that suggested I was right.
However, on very heavy ground – over a trip just short of 3 miles – and with relentless pace in the race, he didn’t manage to get home…

He’s been given 3 weeks to recover from that run – and is dropped half a mile in trip today. He will also be running on better ground – which I think will help his chances further.

In short, I think he has a very good chance of at least performing to the level that I expected, when I tipped him last time.

Whether that will be good enough to win, is a different matter…

The favourite Abidjan, is a difficult one to get a handled on - though at 3/1 in a competitive field, I do feel he needs to be taken on.

Second favourite, Red Devil Boys, is another I’m happy to take on, off a mark 6lb higher than when he was successful last time out.

Hidden Justices’ trainer, John Quinn, provides a big danger in the shape of Kashmir Peak. However, I don’t think there is a lot between the 2 horses and Hidden gets 8lb from Kashmir (excluding the claim of jockey Dean Pratt).

The Warren Greatrex trained Alzammaar is actually the one I fear most,

He caught my eye last time out in a hot handicap at Cheltenham – and will be better suited by today quick conditions.

I would have liked a better price on him – but still figured he was worth making an official saver.

0.375pt win Hidden Justice 12/1

0.125pt win Alzammaar 13/2

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.