Review of the day

My original expectation was that I’d be taking today off – and with hindsight, I wish I had done exactly that…

Instead, I issued 3 tips – and non of them performed with any credit whatsoever.

In fairness, I think I was on the right lines with Its a Sting and Paddy the Deejay, both  of whom I tipped in the novice handicap chase.

A good part of the reason why I was prepared to have a go at the race, was because I felt the first and second favourite, Chicoria and Hinton Admiral, were opposable.

I was also prepared to eliminate a couple of the outsiders – meaning that I was effectively looking at a 7 horse race.

I got that bit right – but my choice of 2 from the 7, was some way out…

Paddy the Deejay was very well backed (going off 7/2 joint favourite), but was beaten turning in.

Its a Sting was beaten even earlier than that...

The ground could have been an excuse for Paddy – but I just don’t think It’s a Sting was ever in with a chance (he was a pre-race drifter).

All a bit disappointing.

However, worse was to follow.

Now I do realise that tipping early in low grade races is a risky business – particularly on long priced horses.

Simply, if we ruin the price of a horse, then there is a chance connections will wait for another day.

I took a risk on Instinctual today, because I felt his connections look committed to the race.

We did manage to nearly half the price early (14/1 into 8/1) – but I still thought he had a chance (as there hadn’t been a  total price collapse).

10 mins before the off, he was trading at 10 on BF.

At the off, he was trading at 20.

To be honest, that told me everything I needed to know – we were sunk.

In the race itself, he set off OK – but was under pressure after jumping just 2 fences – and he decanted Aiden Coleman at the fourth.

Maybe the horse is a complete rogue – I don’t know.

However, I do know that the enthusiasm he showed last time out at Ludlow, was completely absent today.

Cleary he’s not one we could follow again – and, to be honest, putting up any horse early in a low grade race, is something I need to think carefully about.

There isn’t enough prize money for these races to be completely straight – so if we mess up the betting, we can’t be too surprised when the horse doesn’t run up to expectations.

From where we stand, it’s virtually an impossible situation….

In the 2 others races that I previewed: Cloudy Bob ran much better than at Market Rasen – but was no match for Valid Point (well done Dave, on a winning nap !).

Whilst in the finale, despite being well backed, Headley Lamarr was comprehensively put in his place by another Twiston Davies trained inmate, in the shape of Goodbye Dancer.

Not a lot of positives to take out the day, then…

TVB.