Daily write-up - Dec 29th

The abandonment of Limerick means there are 4 NH meetings today: Newbury, Doncaster and Kelso in the UK – plus Leopardstown in Ireland.

This is the last day for me, before I take a few days break (back on the 5^th Jan – in case you’ve not being paying attention !).

It is therefore the final day of December as far as the TVB service is concerned.

And, unless I hit on 3 winners (which is a little unlikely!) it has to be considered a disappointing month.

In all probability, we will officially finish the month about level – with doesn’t sound too bad.

However, we were chugging along nicely with our near 100% ROI half way through the month – before the wheels came off…

I’ve not really got much of an explanation for what has gone wrong over the past fortnight.

Clearly it’s a very busy period – and the weather has played havoc with things – but I’m not sure the answer is that simple.

I’ve been on the go studying and writing for almost 3 solid months now – and I just wonder if it’s taken away a bit of my sharpness.

I don’t honestly know – but I’ll certainly be mulling it over, during the next few days…

Anyway, I don’t want to sound all doom and gloom – I’m sure it’s a ‘blip’ rather than a ‘trend’ – and you can rest assured that I’ll be working hard to resume normal service, once we are into the new year.

With regards to today, then we have ended up with 4 small tips across 3 races.

The stake sizes don’t really reflect my confidence in the selections – more the fact that the prices were as tight as I’d want to be taking.

All 4 horses were backed last night – and continued to be backed this morning.

Clearly, me tipping them doesn’t help either, with the mandatory point or two being shaved off the prices.

We do have to be very careful with prices.

Whether people acknowledge it or not, ‘value’ is of paramount importance.

Nobody can maintain a strike rate that allows them, to continually take below the odds – you must always bear that in mind.

The trouble is, no one can bet profitably without backing a few winners – so it’s a tricky balancing act…

Hopefully we’ll get a winner – or even two – this afternoon.

We could certainly do with one.

Here’s the rationale behind the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Newbury

12:50

Some of you may recall that I was initially quite keen on Imagine the Chat, when he made his seasonal debut at Chepstow last month.

My first impression was that he stuck out like a sore thumb, in an average looking race – though on closer inspection, I revised that opinion, as the race looked a bit stronger than I first thought !

Well, I was right on the quality of the race, as time has shown it to be very strong contest – with numerous subsequent winners having emerged from it.

In a way, that helps explain Imagine the Chats disappointing run that day – though I suspect he didn’t run his race, regardless…

Certainly, if he was being priced up purely on that piece of form, he would be a 33/1 shot – but racing is never that simple…

Based on his hurdle form from last year, Imagine the Chat remains very interesting – even more so now that he is stepped up to a trip of 2m6f, having run over the minimum distance at Chepstow.

It will also help his case, that the stable of Rebecca Curtis is seemingly now back in good form. She struggled hugely during November and early December – but the signs just before Christmas, were that things had turned a corner.

She has only had 2 runners in the post Christmas period, so has popped back under the radar – but hopefully Imagine the Chat will sort that out this afternoon !

In terms of dangers, then I don’t think the race is as strong as the numbers suggest…

Road to Freedom is the one I fear most – though his jumping has so far proved to be his Achilles heal.

Aigle De La See and Willoughby Hedge are the other 2 I would be particularly fearful of – if the market spoke in their favour.

Hopefully it won’t though – and Imagine the Chat can start to build on the promise he showed last season…

0.25pt win Imagine the Chat 8/1

Silvergrove is the one to beat in the following Mandarin chase (1:25).

He was desperately unlucky not to score on his stable debut at Sandown, at the beginning of the month – and even off a 7lb higher mark today, will take all the beating.

However, the market is wise to his chances – and I certainly wouldn’t want to be taking anything less than 2/1 about him.

I have a feeling that Henllan Harri may get to a price bigger than his form warrants.

I would say, Silvergrove aside, his chance is as good as anything else in the field – a current price of 11/1 (and drifting) holds a little bit of appeal (maybe EW – provided all 8 run)…

Only 3 go to post for the grade 1 Challow hurdle – which is very disappointing.

Barters Hill is likely to lead from the off – and probably won’t be passed.

It will be great for his connections – but not so good for racing in general.

Grade 1 races are the sports showcase, this particular race is not going to show the sport in the best of lights…

There’s a very trappy novices handicap chase at 2:35, in which 4 of the 5 runners can be fancied.

The race will likely come down to tactics and jumping.

Balgarry will probably look to make all – but I think Stiletto might cut him down late.

I would expect One Track Mind to take the handicap hurdle at 3:10.

He was a beaten favourite at Cheltenham on his seasonal debut – but ran well enough in a decent race.

I think he will benefit from that run – and also from todays shorter trip.

The opposition isn’t poor – and there’s little value in a price of 5/4 – but I think he will win.

Doncaster

1:45

Top Billing was installed last night, as quite a short priced favourite for this race – but he looks one to take on…

He was a very easy winner last time out – but stole the race, on heavy ground and has been raised 12lb for his troubles.

If he’s progressive enough, it won’t stop him – but the percentage call is to oppose him…

Zeroshadesofgrey has usurped him as favourite this morning – and I would be more fearful of him.

He was a very decent novice last season – and after a couple of disappointing runs over fences, reverts to hurdles this afternoon off a fair enough looking mark.

The issue for him could be the ground – as I suspect he wants it softer than he is going to get this afternoon.

Balmusette on the other hand, should find the ground ideal.

She is also likely to relish the step back up in trip, having run over shorter on her 2 previous outings this season.

She was the very impressive winner of a mares listed hurdle over this course and distance in February – and based on that form, she doesn’t look badly handicapped off a mark of 131.

She finished behind Red Devil Boys last time out – but with a 10lb turnaround in the weights and an extra half mile to travel, I expect Balmusette to take her revenge this afternoon.

Half cases can be made for a few of the others – but equally they all have questions to answer.

Balmusette looks to have been primed for this race – and there are no doubts about her effectiveness in the conditions.

I think she will be tough to beat.

0.25pt win Balmusette 8/1

3:25

Despite the numbers, I’ll be a bit surprised if this race isn’t won by either Ziga Boy or Wild Bill.

The former is now ridiculously well handicapped – and will be facing perfect conditions: whilst the latter is very progressive and could still be a fair way ahead of his mark.

Choosing between the 2 wasn’t easy – but I have a slight preference for Ziga boy and the early prices helped make up my mind.

As some of you will probably recall, I was quite keen on Ziga Boy the last time he ran, at Fontwell.

However, early rain and another price crash, put me off him.

He still looked likely to win, turning in that day – but his stamina gave out up the home straight and he ultimately finished a well beaten third.

He has been dropped 3lb for that run, which is generous – but more importantly will face better ground today.

I think everything is in place for him to run a huge race.

Wild Bill is a different kettle of fish.
He was a very impressive winner over course and distance last time out.

However that was in a lower grade than he runs in today – and he has an 8lb weight rise to contend with as well.

He could easily be up to it – and I wouldn’t put any one off supporting him.

I just felt his price was tight enough, considering the uncertainty…

The only one at a big price that I was interested in, was Godsmejudge.

He is potentially even better handicapped than Ziga Boy – but he’s not been in any kind of form.
I took a chance on him last time out at Sandown – but he was well beaten that day and showed very little.

It could easily be the same today – but he is dropped in grade and also running off a 6lb lower mark.

That still wouldn’t be enough – but the fitting of a first time tongue tie and Noel Fehily in the saddle, got me interested !

He’s very risky – and could easily run badly – but he could also win.

In the circumstances, I felt it prudent to save on him.

0.25pt win Ziga Boy 5/1

0.125pt win Godsmejudge 14/1 

In the novice handicap hurdle at 1:10, it strikes me as significant that Tom Scudamore is partnering Baltimore Rock, when he could have gone to Newbury and partnered Ballingary (amongst others).
Certainly, if David Pipe has him fully tuned, he is good enough to take this race on his seasonal debut.

The Grey Taylor is the obvious danger – but is short enough in the betting.

The other one who catches my eye at a price, is Monyjean.

He ran OK on his debut at Huntingdon – and whilst he would need to improve on that, he may well do so.

At 16/1+ he could be worth a tiny speculative interest.

There is a fascinating mares chase at 2:20, which looks to rest between the front 3 in the market.

Like most, I was very impressed by Kalane at Huntington last time – but I think people might have gone a bit overboard.

Visually, she was hugely impressive but she beat nothing.

She meets a couple of borderline grade 1 performers today – and I’ll be a bit surprised if she can run away from them.

I thought Ma Filleule ran well enough at Ascot last time – and at level weights, Kalane will have to be very good to beat her.

Pepite Rose could easily turn out to be the biggest danger – but over a trip which might stretch her stamina a little, I would be hopeful that Ma Filleule would be the superior.

Leopardstown

The most interesting race on the Leopardstown card, is arguably the opening amateur riders chase.

The ex Hunter Chaser, Court Frontier, stands out in this after a successful rules debut over hurdles.

Unfortunately, he’s been well picked up by the market – and a price of 7/4 leaves no margin.

With 12 runners, EW is an option and I can see both Mister First and Kilcrea running big races.

As has been the case with virtually all of the grade 1 events run at Leopardstown over the Christmas holiday, the fields for todays 2 events are tiny.

Only 4 runners go to post for both the Novice chase at 1:55 and the Ryanair hurdle at 2:30.

Assuming he jumps round OK, No More Heroes should take the former event – but with it being a novice chase, that’s not guaranteed.

The Ryanair hurdle doesn’t look quite such a formality.

It’s interesting that favourite Nichols Canyon finished well behind Windsor Park, when they met in the Neptune hurdle at last seasons Cheltenham festival.

Todays shorter trip and race fitness may well swing things in favour of Nichols Canyon – but I wouldn’t want to be taking 2/5 on him.

Particularly as Identity Thief could easily upset them both.

He’s looked extremely progressive over hurdles this season – and on the book has very little to find with Nichols Canyon.

He would probably be the bet in the race – though it may well be one that I sit out…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.