Daily write-up - Nov 29th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Leicester and Carlisle in the UK – and Fairyhouse in Ireland.

In truth, there is very little to get excited about in the UK: the Carlisle card in particular, is extremely drab.

It should be very different in Ireland, where Fairyhouse stage a top class card, featuring 3 grade 1 events.

However, I say ‘should’, because in truth, the card doesn’t grab me as I would expect…

The lack of true competitive is Irish racing is an ever growing issue, with Willie Mullins and/or Gigginstown, dominating almost every race.

That’s the case again today, with the combination responsible for favourites in 6 of the 7 races on the card - with the other, appearing to be a lottery (until the inspired late gamble materialises !).

It makes the races less entertaining to watch – and betting on them profitably, very difficult.

Consequently there are no tips on the day.

However, I do have some thoughts – and they might contain the odd winner or two – if you are prepared to hunt around !

Fairyhouse

The opening 4 year old hurdle race looks at the mercy of the Willie Mullins trained Miss Tata.
She won well on her debut at Down Royale – and will likely follow up today (particular in receipt of the mares allowance).

That said, There are two or three who you could consider taking her on with:

Tiliver was well fancied to give her a race when she won at Down Royale – but ran a shocker. If that was a one off, he could of interest (at 16/1).

It could also be significant that Gordon Elliot chooses to throw the Gigginstown owned Rocket Punch into this for his debut.
The conventional path would be a maiden hurdle first – so the suggestion is that he is well thought of..

The third one of interest, is La Vagabound.

He fell on his debut (when looking held by Tiliver) but won well on his only subsequent start.

Todays heavy ground could be an issue for him – but he clearly has a lot of ability.

In summary, Miss Tata will take the beating – but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if one the 3 mentioned above were able to give her a race.

The first grade 1 of the afternoon, the Royal Bond hurdle at 1:10, is likely to be captured by Willie Mullins.

The betting suggests it will be via Long Dog – but that is almost certainly because Ruby Walsh has chosen him.

In terms of form, there is little between he and stable mate, Bachasson, so with the latter 7/2 and the former even money, it’s not hard to see where the value lies…

The Hattons Grace hurdle at 1:40, should be won by Arctic Fire.

You can ague a case against him in terms of the way the race could be run – and his ‘quirkiness’.

However, he is more than a stone superior to all of his rivals on official ratings - so even if a few things go wrong (and they may well), he is still likely to have enough in hand, to win.

There is a ridiculous looking handicap, bang in the middle of the card, at 2:10.

There has been a plunge on Smoking Big Cigars – which may be significant (he has the right profile for a plunge horse).
In truth, it wouldn’t surprise me to see another late plunge – and then you would have to pay your money and make your choice !

With a straight bat, I would offer Cest Notre Gris.

He should run his race –and will be better for his debut a fortnight ago.

He can be backed at 16/1 – so EW, you will make a small profit it he’s in the frame.

That said, with 24 runners – and so many unknowns, it’s a questionable race to be getting involved in…

If there is a super star on show this afternoon, it is likely to be No More Heroes, in the final grade 1 on the afternoon, the Drinmore chase (2:40).

His reputation is sky high – and as he comes from the stable of Gordon Elliot, it’s likely to be warranted…

In truth, his performances on the tack haven’t quite matched the hype – and I would be quite happy to take him on this afternoon – if I could find the right horse…

Outlander might be the right horse. He has a verdict over No More Heroes from when they met over hurdles at Leopardstown, in January.

He also won his debut outing over fences (when beating Free Expression),.

The main issue with him is that, Like No More Heroes, he is owned by Gigginstown – and their number one jockey, Bryan Cooper has opted to ride No More Heroes.

Still that leaves Ruby on Outlander, and he can’t be considered a bad back-up !

In terms of natural ability, I could be tempted by Monksland.
However, he only made his chasing debut a week ago – and will be 9 in the new year.

His profile just doesn’t really ‘fit’ for a grade 1 novice chase.

Instead, I might opt for Shantou Flyer…

He keeps on progressing – and is still only 5 years old.

I find it hard to believe that a horse ridden by an amateur can win a race such as this – but he travels and jumps and looks certain go well.

He’s a 16/1 shot – and whilst he might not be quite good enough to win, I could see him getting placed in the race, as others fall by the wayside…

The handicap chase at 3:10, looks like a race I need to steer clear of !

For a start, my beloved Cootamundra returns to action under rules after a period PTPing.

I’ll get sucked in by him (as a back to lay in-running) – no doubt about that !

There is also Bless the Wings, who we were on in the cross country chase at Cheltenham a fortnight ago, when he didn’t quite manage to get home.

I could also be tempted by the enigmatic, Sword Fish, who will have ideal conditions today – and could just bounce back to form.
Whilst the best handicapped horse in the race should be Killer Crow – though whether he will stay todays marathon trip, is a bit of a guess.

My guess is that he will – and he looks the one to beat.
However, he is also favourite – and there are plenty I could look to take him on with !

Leicester

I wish I could get a proper handle on the Leicester going…

I don’t live that far away from the course – and a going description the chase course of good, good to firm in places, just doesn’t ring true (we’ve had loads of rain recently – it’s even raining now !).

However, that’s the official description - and Restless Harry (who wants soft ground) has been taken out of the Veterans chase (2:00) because of the going.

If it were soft (which is what I was expecting), then I would have been very keen on Araldur.
However, if it is good, then that will suit Creevytennant and French Opera much more.

Of the two, I would favour Creevytennant, who could get the run of things up front – and should be better suited by the trip.
However, he is favourite, and there is minimum value in a best price of 3/1.

In the following race on the card, I would expect our old friend Hartside to run well – though again, I would prefer softer underfoot conditions for him.

On soft ground, I would be very surprised if he finished out the frame – however, if it is a bit quicker, he could end up fifth or sixth.
Again, there is little juice in a price of 8/1 – even if you back him EW.

Here’s hoping for a great day if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.

Review of the day

This is my 4^th season tipping – and I’ve had some tough days along the way – but I think today must go down as the biggest sickener of the lot…

I tipped in 5 races – and managed to get 4 seconds.

That makes a total of 13 seconds so far this season.
I’ve not issued 50 tips yet – which means my seconds are running at a rate of over 25% !

At the odds at which I tend to tip, that’s quite some performance (and ignores the half dozen winners !).

It’s difficult to know where to start, on the tale of woe – so I’ll begin with the race in which I didn’t tip a runner up…

That was Abracadabra Sivola, who was heavily supported into favouritism in a hugely competitive race – but jumped poorly and ultimately finished well beaten.

Next it was Diamond King.

He was also subject to huge pre-race support, finally going off an 11/4 shot.
However, I was slightly concerned that an unexposed one might do him – and so it turned out.
I even managed to nominate which one (and the third, for good measure !).

It wasn’t the tricast I was after, however…

Next it was Virak, and whilst he ran a mighty race, he just couldn’t get past Wikanda.

The latter put in a perfect round of jumping – and galloped on bravely.

It was still a tough one to take.

In fairness, to Theatre Guide, that wasn’t a tough one.
He was totally outclassed by Smad Place and did well to run on to finish a very distant second.

Houblon Des Obeaux seemed to find it all happening a bit quick – which made me wonder if the ground was actually as soft as was claimed (as did the performances of Theatre Guide and Smad Place – as neither of them would have wanted it desperate).

So, after a frustrating afternoon, it was left to Whispering Harry to salvage things.

And how he tried to do just that.

He jumped, galloped and battled - but just found Grey Gold a bit too good.

His was undoubtedly the hardest one to take – not least because I did think I’d found one with him…

In terms of the mentions: then Aso managed to finished second at Newbury – behind Arzal.

Did anyone have the forecast ?

Whilst at Newcastle, The Rambling Kid ran a might race – trading at just over 2 in running.

If anyone played on him they should have made it pay.

Finally, at Doncaster, Billie Merriot added another letter to his profile when unseating; Whilst Prairie Town did indeed find the ground to quick (though I wouldn’t lose faith in him).

All in all, a day I would rather forget…

TVB. 

Daily write-up - Nov 28th

There are 5 NH meetings today: Newbury, Newcastle, Doncaster and Bangor in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

It’s the final day of the Hennessy meeting at Newbury – and the Hennessy Gold Cup is the feature of the afternoon.

Unfortunately, I’ve not managed to take the meeting apart in the same way I did the Cheltenham Open meeting.

I think that has been in partially down to the ground (which has changed daily – from Good/Soft on day 1, to Sort/Heavy today) – and partially down to the fact that a surprising number of ‘unknown’ horses have run at the meeting (making seasonal debuts, new trainers etc).

Both those factors have made it difficult to have confidence when assessing the fields.

Still, that’s the way it has been – and I’ve acted in a cautious manner, in response.

In truth, today isn’t a lot different.

I have more confidence over the state of the ground – and I think there are a couple of races where I can get my head round most of the field – but there are still plenty of unquantifiables.

Consequently, tips have been kept at a modest level.

I’ve ended up with 4 small ones at Newbury – in 3 races: plus a couple from elsewhere.

He is the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts.

Newbury

1:15

This is a ferociously competitive race – one which I maybe should have left alone – but Abracadabra Sivola has ticks in so many boxes, I just had to get involved…

In truth, because of the competitive nature of the race, I did hope that we might get a double figure price on him – and then I really would have been interested.

I expected the likes of La Vaticane, Aloomomo, Se Cetait Vrai and Shanganin to dominate the market – but perhaps the fact his price is standing up to them, is not a bad thing…

In terms of the case for him, then I think he is a potentially well handicapped horse, who will love todays conditions and who really impressed me with his jumping, last time out at Exeter.
That was in a very decent novice chase and whilst ultimately he proved no match for Native River, that one did the form no harm when coming out and winning a grade 1 novice chase at the track on Thursday.

The biggest issue today, may be the large field size (and consequential traffic issues).

That said, he has Dickie on top, to help steer a course – and I suspect that 3 or 4 of them, are just there for an outing, anyway…

Of the outsiders, then Big Casino is of some interest: as too is Simply Wings.
Whilst if money came for Morning Reggie, I would be fearful of him.

0.25pt win Abracadabra Sivola 8/1

3:00

It’s interesting to note that 6 of the last 10 Hennessy winners have been 7 years old – and a further 2 have been 6…

I think that makes a lot of sense.

This is a touch race – and generally for tough races, you want a young, healthy horse.

Only 6 of todays field fall into that age bracket:

Saphir De Rheu and The Young Master are both 6: whilst Splash of Ginge, Ned Stark, If in Doubt and Urano are 7.

My guess is that is why Pricewise has selected Saphir De Rheu – and Splash of Ginge…

Anyway, I digress !

Suffice to say that I examined this area fully before I decided on my tips for the race.

Of the horses in the ‘right’ age bracket, the 3 that interested me most were Saphir, The Young Mater and If in Doubt.

However, I have concerns about the jumping of the first and last named; whilst Saphir is also too short in the betting – and If in Doubt is making his seasonal debut (not ideal, in such a race).
That left me with The Young Master.
However, I have a slight issue with him…

In December, last year, he beat a fast finishing Houblon Des Obeaux by a diminishing 2 and a half lengths, in receipt of 17lb…

Today he gets just 6lb from that rival.

In short, Houblon should turn the form around.
More than that, Houblon loves Newbury (he was second in last years Hennessy) – and loves heavy ground.

I simply can’t see how he’s not going to run a huge race (even though he is 8 !) – and he’s a decent price as well…

Earlier in the week, my fancy for the race was Theatre Guide.

Like Houblon, he has been placed in a previous Hennessy off a higher mark – and yet is still only 8 years old.

However, when I picked him out, the Newbury ground was good to soft: it is now borderline heavy.
That is not ideal for Theatre Guide.

I could still see him running well – but I just wonder if he will get home…

On the plus side, his stable couldn’t be in much better form – and he has ‘go to Paddy’ on top.
Stranger things happen…

0.25pt win Houblon Des Obeaux 14/1

0.125pt EW Theatre Guide 33/1

3:35

Henry Oliver and James Davies did us a big favour with Keel Haul, at the Cheltenham open meeting – and I’m hoping they can repeat the dose with Whispering Harry here…

In truth, there are a lot of similarities between the pair:

Like Keel Haul, Whispering Harry is a second season chaser, who showed fair form last season.

He managed to clock up 3 wins – all on very soft ground – and that liking for deep conditions should stand him in good stead, this afternoon.

He looks reasonably handicapped to me – with the plenty of scope for improvement.

He should also be cherry ripe, following a nice pipe opener over hurdles at Leicester, a fortnight ago.

His case couldn’t be described as compelling – more gently persuasive…

I can see a few dangers in the race – and did think long and hard about a saver on Venetias, Gardefort.

He did us a favour when winning on his seasonal debut last season - and I can imagine that he’s been primed to repast the dose this afternoon.

Stellar Notion is the other one to be potentially fearful of – though that is factored into the price: whilst I would expect Pearls Legend to run another game race, but probably not be quite good enough.

0.25pt win Whispering Harry 16/1

In the novice handicap chase at 12:45, my 2 against the field were Aso and Arzal.

However they opened up first and second favourite – and I just don’t feel that strongly about either one…

Of the two, I think Aso is the one to beat.

A decent hurdler, he shaped well on his chasing debut – and will love todays conditions.
However, in a very tricky race, there is minimal value in a price of 5/1.

Newcastle

2:40

My instinctive feeling, was that Virak might be able to outclass this field…

He was sent off 9/2 third favourite, behind Coneygree and Saphir de Rhue, for the grade 1 Kauto Star novice chase at last seasons Boxing day meeting at Kempton.

He was no match for Coneygree that day – and could only finish a distant third – but it still gives an indication of his potential class.

He disappointed n his next outing (when 1/2 fav for a grade 2 race) – but took apart a field of handicappers on his final run of the season.
That was off a mark of 144  - but I suspect he will be able to cope with the 9lb higher mark that he runs off today.
Certainly, I felt he shaped with distinct promise on his seasonal debut at Ascot a few weeks back.

He ultimately finished well beaten that day – but I suspect the run was needed and he wouldn’t have been particularly suited by the good ground.
Todays conditions ware likely to be much more up his street - and the booking of apprentice Harry Cobden, to take off 7lb, strikes me as significant…

If he’s not up to the task, then I think Masters Hill is the one most likely to take advantage.

That said, it the ground is truly bottomless, I wouldn’t discount Venetias, Saroque – who is likely to relish such conditions.

0.5pt win Virak 7/1

There is a fascinating opener to the Newcastle card…

I was very taken by Shimal Dawn when he won at Carlisle on the first day of the TVB season.

I’m surprised he only got 2lb for that win – and I reckon that makes him the one to beat today.
That said, I would be fearful of a couple who finished behind him: Cultram Abbey and The Rambling Kid.

The latter would appear to have no chance of turning round a 20 length beating on just 4lb better terms – but I did like the way he moved in that race (after along absence).

He’s 20+ on BF –and a pre race back to lay in running, is possibly the way to go.
Outside those 3, Wizards Bridge has to be of interest after a good win last time at Exeter; and I could also see Iora Glas running well on his chasing debut.

In short, too tricky to play in – but an intriguing race, non the less…

Doncaster

Rain is due to hit Doncaster this afternoon – but I don’t think it is going to come in time for Prairie Town in the handicap hurdle at 2:30.

I’m sure a few of you will recall that I got close to tipping him last time out, when he won at Sandown.

I was unsure whether the ground would be soft enough for him that day, over the minimum trip – and whilst he is stepped up in trip today, I’m pretty sure that the ground won’t be as soft as he would like.

In truth, I might still have taken a risk on him, because I think he wants a test of stamina rather than soft ground (and the extra distance should provide that).

However, he faces a couple of very interesting rivals (Hannahs Princess and Red Devil Boys), who want quick ground – and with conditions in their favour, I think they are likely to prove his superior.

If the rain does come in time however, and you are able to act, then I think he would represent a very good bet at 8/1…

The previous race on the card (1:55) looks very strong.

Jack Steel was a massively impressive winner last time out at Ayr and must have a good chance of following up today – even off a 12lb higher mark.

However, he faces a tough rival, in the shape of Billy Merriot.

He is a fragile sort, who has not seen much racing, but was well fancied last time out at Kempton, when unluckily brought down.

He represents the bang in form Harry Fry/Michael Legg combination  - and if lucks goes his way today, I think he might be able to show what a talented horse he is…

Fairyhouse

2:15

From day 1 of the season, I was always going to be tipping Diamond King in this race…

He was a horse I knew I would be interested in, from the moment I heard he had transferred from the stable of Donald McCain to that of Gordon Elliot.

I still remember watching the horse make his racecourse debut in a bumper at Wetherby, nearly 3 year ago.
He was so impressive – I was convinced that I’d seen something special.

My expectation was that I would be backing him for the 2014 Supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival – but it never happened.

He was off the course for 12 months and when he did return, at the beginning of this year, he didn’t show much in a couple of runs.

A transfer to Elliot followed – and whilst I wouldn’t have been surprised to see him go in first time out at Down Royale, I also wasn’t too surprised to see him beaten.

Keith Donoghue was on board at Down Royale: Davy Russell takes over today.
The Down Royale race was worth 20K – it’s 30K today…

In fairness, Diamond King ran well enough at Down Royale – and arguably was unlucky not to go pretty close.

However, I think he will be fitter today: Elliott will know him better – and he couldn’t have a better man in the saddle.

In truth, I would have liked weaker opposition and a better price – but the market isn’t stupid nowadays.

Generally speaking, if a horse is fit and fancied, the market reflects that – we just have to accept that situation.

I guess my slight concern is that there is one lurking there, capable of beating him – After Rain and Blue Hell look the most likely sorts to me.

If that’s the case, then so be it.

So long as he’s trying, I think we have every chance – and I have no reason to think he won’t be going flat out day !

0.375pt win Diamond King 5/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Review of the day

It’s always really difficult to know where to draw the line, tipping wise, on a day like today…

Lots of suitable races – and lots of suitable horses – as I said first thing this morning, I could easily have tipped in 6 races.

But I didn’t – I tipped in 4 – and that was probably a mistake.

In fairness, it’s not easy fitting everything in. There are only so many hours – and checking things out properly takes time…

I felt last night, that Silver Eagle was potentially a huge danger to Wild Bill, at Doncaster.

I therefore decided to wait and see what the market made of him before committing to the tip.

The market seemed to like the chances of Silver Eagle very much - and that put me off Wild Bill.

Ofcourse, what I really needed to know was what the market thought of Silver Eagle at the off

And it wasn’t anywhere near as keen then – but I can’t tip early and know that.
It’s what you have to deal with, playing the way I do…

Anyway, that was the big negative on the day (from an official P&L perspective) – but  there was a positive as well !

In truth, I could easily have not tipped Blades Lad.
Not because I didn’t fancy him – but because I nearly left the Musselburgh meeting alone.

However, he appeared in my alerts – and I allowed myself 5 mins to check out his race – and I very much liked what I saw.
Fine lines…

In truth, we nearly ended up on the wrong side of those fine lines with him, as well.

Relentless rain in Edinburgh, changed the ground from good to soft – and whilst he got away with it, it was only just.

His stamina gauge was flashing ‘empty’ quite alarmingly, as he laboured past the post.

But he managed to hang on – and that was the important thing.

And it was as well he did, because the tips that had run earlier in the day, had been disappointing…

First up it was Night in Milan and Echos Spring at Doncaster.

In fairness, both horses travelled like a dream, at the head of affairs – and turning for home, both traded at less than 3 in-running.
It really did seem a question of which one.

But then, in a matter of strides, both emptied – and their races were over…

I suspect the stamina of Echo Springs gave out – whilst maybe Night in Milan was just getting fit for a return to fences (the late price drift on him, suggested today wasn’t going to be the day).

I thought L’Unique was a little disappointing at Newbury.

In fairness, she jumped much better than I thought she might – but she was never really travelling.

Maybe she was struggling with the bad ground – but the way the race panned out, I would have hoped she could have got closer.

I would also have hoped that Monetaire would have got closer – much closer – but he was another to disappoint.

As I said this morning, he had ticks in almost every box - but in the race, he never remotely threatened.

I’m sure his mark will be revised downwards as a result – but it would be difficult to support him next time (even if the Pipe stable were in better form).

In the other races on the Newbury card: I thought Bincombe ran OK – but maybe a bit too freely and didn’t quite get home.

Again, I would expect his mark to drop as a result and he could soon be of interest.

Gevrey Chambertain ran a very similar race to last time (staying on well past beaten horses). He is almost certainly a ‘plot’ job – the question will be whether I can identify the day he is being plotted up for !

At Doncaster, Off the Ground ran a very commendable race – and his handicap mark wasn’t being work on.
He was just a bit unlucky to bump into a young improver.

He would definitely be one to be interested in next time – though I suspect his price might be tight.

Finally, in the bumper, Walk Waterford came with a very promising looking challenge about 2 furlongs out – but didn’t go through with it.

He should come on for the run – whilst I’m sure Derek O’Connor will enjoy his night in the bars and clubs of Leeds city centre 

Just a reminder for those on the tipping service, that as it’s a Friday, the tipping window will be open at 6:00, in case there is anything I can tip this evening for tomorrows big races.

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 27th

There are 3 NH meetings today: at Newbury, Doncaster and Musselburgh.

Waiting for tips is a bit like waiting for a bus…

Non for days – then a load come at once !

Alas, there is nothing I can do about it.

The horses/races are either there to be tipped in – or they aren’t.

It’s all out of my control.

Suffice to say, there are plenty of races I can tip in today – and so I’ve tipped in a few of them.

With time tight, I’ll keep the pre-amble short – and get straight into the detail.

Newbury

2:05

I’m sure a few of you will recall that I was quite keen on L’Unique when she made her chasing debut at Wincanton earlier this month.

However, she had a horrible time that day…

Something spooked her going to the fifth fence and she tried to duck out.

She then had a horse fall immediately in front of her on the second circuit.

In truth, she did well to get round and I thought that might be the last time we saw her over fences – but that’s not the case…

Clearly, her trainer, Alan King, still feels the mare can make a mark over the big obstacles - and if he’s right, I think she could be capable of springing a bit of a surprise today…

Certainly, the conditions of this race favour her, based on her hurdles form.

She is receiving weight – up to a stone – from horses who she would be running against on much less favourable terms over the smaller obstacles.
Ofcourse chase form and hurdles form aren’t completely interchangeable – but it’s still nice to know that she has the latent ability to just about win this, if she does jump round OK.
And I think there is a much better chance of her jumping round Newbury than there was of her jumping round Wincanton.
Newbury is a big open track – and she should get the time and space she needs, to get over her obstacles.

Ocourse, she could get round safely but be too ponderous – and that is a risk.

However, I think it is a risk worth taking at the prices..

In terms of her opponents, then I would expect Maximiser to make a bold show up front – he could be quite capable of jumping his rivals into submission.

That said, I suspect he will lack a change of gear if anything is close enough to strike, jumping the last.
Hopefully Wayne Hutchinson will be able to get L’Unique into that position – because if he does, I think she has the required class to win.

0.25pt win L’Unique 16/1

2:40

I believe that Monetaire has perfect conditions today and I could be really keen on him.

However, there are a couple of things that slightly temper my enthusiasm: the patchy form of the David Pipe yard – and the presence of Upepito…

Ignoring those, then I think the case for Monetaire is quite compelling…

He finished second in last seasons festival plate, off a mark just two pound lower than he runs off today.
That in itself would give him a strong chance in todays race – but he was very unlucky not to have won that race.
Firstly, he got a way to a poor start – and secondly he wouldn’t have been ideally suited by the relatively quick ground.

As a piece of form, I think it’s the best in the race – the fact that it doesn’t flatter Monetaire, makes him of strong interest.

I also like the fact that he is coming into this race, in peak condition, following a run in the Paddy Power Gold cup; and the fact that he won at this meeting 12 months ago (so he clearly has no issue with the course).

Todays trip and ground will be perfect for him – in short, he is a very strong contender…

As I said, I can only see 2 issues with his case:

The first is stable form; and the second is Upepito.

He could be a really well handicapped horse – and it will be frustrating if that is the case.

I might save my stake on him – but not for official purposes.

Others in the race that I could see running well, include Royal Regatta and Little Jon – plus I’m not sure Kings Lad should be quite the price he is.
That said, I wouldn’t put any of those above Upepeito – and I’m hoping he’ll only be capable of chasing home Monetaire.

0.375pt win Monetaire 7/1

I really wanted to tip in the handicap chase at 12:55 – but I couldn’t figure out what !

I was originally drawn to Drumshambo, as he is spectacularly well handicapped.

However, he was very well handicapped for most of last season.

He might spark back to life today, as he will be running fresh – and over a shorter trip than he competed over last season.
But in truth, I’m not sure he will…

The other one who could take the race part, is the favourite, Mon Successeur.
He ran a big race at Wetherby on his debut for Paul Nicholls – and looked like he should progress for that.
However, he was a little disappointing next time out over hurdle at Cheltenham.

If he can build on the Wetherby form, he is probably the one to beat – but there are question makers over him…

The safest bet in the race, is Bincombe.
He ran a good race on his seasonal debut in a hotter contest than this – and has been dropped 3lb for it !

He has also got a decent conditional on his back, claiming 8lb.
I think it will be hard to keep him out of the frame – and at 6/1, he looks an EW bet to nothing.
However, for win purposes, he just might be vulnerable.

In truth, I couldn’t confidently put a line through Colins Brother, Vision Des Champ or Rouge et Blanc.
So reluctantly, I had to pass on the race…

I also had to pass on the handicap hurdle at 1:30.

In truth, that was a little easier to do – once the spectacular price on Gevrey Chambertain went (he was 33/1 last night).

I have to admit that he’s a speculative one – and whilst I could argue a case for him (blinkers back on, soft ground, flat track), I suspect connections would like a few more pounds of his rating before they really go for it.
If he is very well blacked (close to single figures), you should probably take the hint  -but otherwise, there are plenty of progressive sorts who are likely to have too much foot for him.

Forthefunofit is the other one I could have been interested in – but there is also quite a lot of guesswork involved with him – and the price isn’t as great.

Doncaster

12:15

This race reminds me very much of the handicap hurdle at Ludlow on Monday, in which I tipped Looks Like Power.

I felt I’d found one that day, which had slipped under the radar (and I had) – but I was fearful of a more obvious one (Kublai).

For Looks like Power, read Echo Springs – and for Kublai, read Night in Milan…

Post race on Monday, I said I wish I had spilt my stakes between the two of them – so that is precisely what I’ve done this afternoon.

The case for Echo Springs is based around a couple of eye-catching runs in much better company, at Aintree.

On the back of those, he gets to run in a handicap today off a very workable looking mark of 115.

I would hope he could do damage off that mark – and the booking of Brian Hughes just adds to his case.

However, if he is going to win today, he’s going to have to overcome a horse who is spectacularly well handicapped and running in ideal conditions.
That horse is Night in Milan – who is a Doncaster specialist and, as recently as January, ran a mighty race over course and distance, when finishing third in the Skybet chase off a mark of 146.
He runs off a mark of 120 today – so is clearly thrown in.

The only issue is, today’s race is over hurdles - and all of his form is over fences…

As I said previously, form in the two disciplines isn’t interchangeable – however…

Night in Mila will get his perfect conditions today (3miles on good ground at Doncaster); he also gets blinkers reapplied and the amateur who has ridden him the last twice, is dispensed with and James Reveley brought back.
To be honest, this horse has lights flashing all over him !

I couldn’t ditch Echo Springs because I would never forgiven myself if he does win – but equally, I can’t call myself a form student and not tip Night in Milan…

Of the others, I would be a little fearful of Nautical Nitwit - and may save stakes on him – but I’ m very optimistic that won’t be necessary.

0.25pt win Night in Milan 6/1

0.25pt win Echo Springs 14/1

In the handicap chase at 1:20, I was half interested in Off the Ground – but my feelings on him are similar to those on Gevrey Chamebertain.
He is now reasonably handicapped - and will have perfect conditions – but I just think connections might want to get him very well handicapped before they strike.
Again, I would suggest you watch the market – and if he is well backed pre race, maybe get involved.
Again there are at least a couple in the race, who he should be able to follow home, if that is the plan for today…

The nearest I got to a fifth tip on the day, was Wild Bill in the handicap chase at 3:05.
He caught my eye travelling well, prior to falling at Ffos Las last time out – and gets to run off the same mark today.
I think he is capable of winning off that mark – and he might even be capable of winning today.

However, the presence of a couple of very dangerous looking rivals, tempers my enthusiasm..

Present Flight is the obvious one – and I think he will be a tough one to beat. However, I am actually more fearful of Silver Eagle…

He returns from a long absence but is very well handicapped based on hurdles form.

He comes from a stable in form – and my thinking was, if he was backed, he was one to be frightened off.

7/1 at 8:30 – he is 3/1 now.

I’m not prepared to take on that kind of confidence…

Finally, I can’t recall the last time I saw Derek O’Connor riding over here, outside one the big festivals.
He’s the top amateur in Ireland and his booking for a horse (even at Cheltenham) tends to be significant.
He is over today for 1 ride, for Jonjo in the bumper.

Now he may be attending a stag weekend in Leeds and wanting his flight paid for –I’ve no idea.

However if he has come over simply to ride the horse, he has to be one to be very interested in,

Walk Waterford is the beast in question – and it can now be backed at 5/1…

Musselburgh

2:55

Just the one race of interest at Musselburgh – and indeed, the one horse…

I put up Blades Lad in the forum a couple of weeks back, when he ran on the flat at Southwell.

That was because he had caught my eye ion no uncertain terms, when finishing second in a novice handicap chase at Sedgefield.

He was beaten that day, by Ashcroft Boy – but that horse has gone on and won again since and is now rated 18lb higher than when he just pipped Blades Lad.

In fairness, Blades Lad got a 6lb rise for his efforts that day – but I have a feeling that might not be anywhere near enough…

Certainly his run at Southwell showed the horse is at the top of his game – and his opponents today look decidedly moderate.

Ofcourse, he has to jump round; and I would prefer the rain to have stayed away (not that he won’t go on soft ground – just that I would be more confident on good) – but you can’t have everything.

Castlelawn and Muwalla look the ones to be fearful of – but neither look world beaters.

In short, I think Blades Lad is a very good bet.

0.5pt win Blades Lad 4/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Daily write-up - Nov 26th

There are 3 NH meetings today: Newbury and Taunton in the UK – and Thurles in Ireland.

The main meeting of the day is at Newbury, which hosts the first day of the 3 day Hennessy festival.

And what a fascinating card it is – packed full of intrigue from the first race to the last.

You really would have to go long way to find a more enthralling card – but unfortunately enthralling racing doesn’t necessary mean good betting opportunities…

There is so much uncertainty and so many unquantifiables, betting on the card really will be for those who like to ‘gamble’ !

I guess most of us fall into that category – but I like to gamble when I feel the odds are in my favour – and I would be guessing over that today.

One big uncertainty is the state of the ground.

It is officially soft to heavy on the hurdles course: and good to soft with soft patches on the chase course.

Well that just about covers everything, I think !

The truth of the matter is we won’t know how it is riding until the horses set hoof on it – and by then ofcourse, it will be too late.

I think it makes a lot more sense to watch and learn, this afternoon.

Anyway, I’ve looked though all the cards – and I’ll try to point out the horses to keep an eye on – plus any possible angels that might open up as the day progresses…

Newbury

The meeting opens up with a fascinating novice hurdle (you might find me using that word a lot, today !).

The question is whether the potentially top class novice hurdler, Modus, can give 8lb to the hurdling debutante, See the World.

I’ve no idea to be honest – and I’ll be intrigued to find out !
For those of you who’ve not seem it before, I really would encourage you to spend a few minutes watching See the Worlds only ever run, at Wincanton.

I’ve genuinely never seen anything like it – and whilst it marks him down as a horse with immense ability – it also suggest that he might have a bit of temperament, as well !

In a race in which Charmix couldn’t be confidently ruled out – and I could see Allee Bleue significantly outrunning his dismissive 50/1 odds, it has to be a watching brief…

The next race on the card (1:00) has a better shape to it, from a betting perspective.

I think the favourite Woof will win – but I’m not prepared to tip him at 9/4 (and I wouldn’t necessarily want to be on him, if he drifted).

In truth, based on the form book, he is not really a 9/4 chance.
However, he makes his debut for Paul Nicholls this afternoon (previously with Tom George) and if Nicholls manages to eak out a few pound s of improvement from him, that will probably be enough to get him home in front.

In fairness, the horse has always looked a bit better than his current mark, so I think Nicholls should be able to improve him.

However, it can’t be considered a formality (and 9/4 leaves precious little margin for error).

Ignoring him, then I would probably be most interested in Top Dancer, if the ground is riding quick-ish (and assuming he is ready to do himself justice): whilst on soft/heavy ground, I would be most interested in Russe Blanc.

However, I think that Wuff should really be able to beat them both…

Rather than try to pick the winner of the race, what I plan to do, is back Lord Landen pre race, with a view to laying him off in running.
He is 38 on BF as I type this – and I could easily see him trading at single figures during the race (assuming his sometimes dodgey jumping holds up).

I very much doubt he will have the stamina to get home – but that might not look the case to the masses, as he rounds the home turn.

In the 1:35 race, I was most surprised to see Unowhatimeanharry opening up at 11/8 last night (with Ladbrokes and B365).

Looking through the race in the afternoon, I was sure he would be odds on – I just wasn’t sure how heavily.

He’s 4/7 now – which is maybe a bit too tight.
However, it is closer the mark than 11/8 ever was !

The horse hacked up in a better race than this at Cheltenham 11 days ago – and as a consequence, is effectively a stone well in today.
He really should be the handicap good thing (assuming he is over that race – and he gets a bit of luck in running).

I certainly wouldn’t offer anything to beat him.

As with the previous race, the best I could come up with would be a back to lay in running on Masterplan.

He should get an uncontested lead (and hence the run of the race).
He can be backed at 20 on BF now – and I think there is a fair chance he will trade at half of that (or better) in running…

I’ll be surprised if he can fend off Unowhatimenaharry, though…

The novice chase at 2:10 contains 3 potential top notchers, in the shape of Une Temp Pour Tout, Value at Risk and Beast of Burden.

They receive weight from the other 4 runners – which just polarises the field even more.

In truth, it’s not easy to pick between the 3.

Une Temp Pour Tout is a grade 1 winner over hurdles (in France): whist the other 2 are more about potential.

I’m a huge fan of Beast of Burden (he is one of my long range RSA fancies) – and if forced, I would side with him.

I actually managed to get a bit of 4/1 about him on BF earlier, and I think that is a very fair bet.

That said, it wouldn’t massively surprise me if either Une Temp Pour Tout or Value at Risk proved his superior today (particularly as the Rebecca Curtis stable is going through a quiet period).
Whatever, I do honestly think that we might see a chaser from the very top drawer in this – so watch it carefully…

I also think we need to watch the novice handicap chase at 2:45 very carefully – but that’s because it’s nearly impossible to call !

I could make a case for at least 8 of the runners – and still wouldn’t be confident I had found the winner.

I actually think the betting has got the right horse at the top, in the form of Warriors Tale.

Another to debut for the Nicholls yard, the case of him is very similar to the case for Wuff  (though this is a deeper race).

If Nicholls can improve him a few pounds, he will be the one to beat.

That said, I could also be quite keen on Nitrogen and Sidbury Hill – and could see angles for Globalisation, African Gold, Spooky Dooky and Chosen Well.

In short, it has to be a watching race – and one that should be watched very closely as I have little doubt that numerous future winners will emerge form it…

Of all the races on the card, this is the one where I got closest to issuing a tip.

For a variety of reason, I think the market leaders are opposable – but unfortunately, I couldn’t find one to oppose them with !

San Benedeto is a quirky character, who couldn’t be guaranteed to repeat the form of his recent win (though he might); whilst Chitbello is a novice who might be harshly handicapped (though he might not be)

Sternrubin is also quirky – and is making his seasonal debut (though he could be dangerous if he’s matured over the summer).

John Constable might be harshly handicapped – and might hot handle the ground.

So you would think one of the outsiders should have a good chance…

The obvious one is probably Wilberdrago – and he might be another decent back to lay in running option.
It will all depend on how much he has come on from his seasonal debut – and how well he copes with todays ground.

Song Light is another of potential interest – but again, the ground is a concern – as is his fitness/well being.

In truth, it’s the kind of race, where I think almost any result is possible – and in those situations, I always gravitate towards the outsiders (even if their cases seemed a little flawed !).

Taunton

There is a very nice novice handicap chase, taking place at 2:20 – but unfortunately it’s no easier to read than the Newbury races…!

There are 9 runners in the race – and a case could be made for the first 7 in the betting.

I’m drawn to By the Boardwalk – though 2 falls in his last 4 runs, does temper  enthusiasm a little (the fences at Taunton can also catch horses out)

If he jumps round safely I could certainly see him being involved in the finish – but the value in a quote of 8/1 is minimal (given his completion record).

Gentleman Jon is the other one of major interest – though if Kilmurvy still has a chance turning in, he could well mow them all down, up the straight.

I’m afraid to say – but another watching race…

Thurles

The race that I would have most liked to tip in this afternoon, is the handicap hurdle at 2:35.

The market for this race is headed by a couple of familiar faces: Sizing Scorpion and Long House Island.
The former got a positive mention prior to his win at Fairyhouse earlier in the moth: whilst the latter just got the better of Repeater, a week ago today ( Grrr !).

It wouldn’t surprise me to see either of them win again today - but neither would have been the tip…

That honour would have fallen to Mr Smith.

He was a big eye catcher at Limerick a couple of weeks ago, when after travelling with menace, he patently failed to stay the 2m4f trip.

He drops back half a mile is distance today and if he came from a small stable, I would take a risk on him. However, he doesn’t, he is trained by Charles Byrnes – and simply, I’m not prepared to tip one of his horses in a race like this.

It’s quite simple with Mr Byrnes – if one of his horses is going to win – it will be backed – and backed heavily.

However, he will be doing the backing – not TVB subscribers.

If we back the horse – and the market reacts (and it will) – it won’t win. It’s as simple as that…

Your options are therefore limited.

You could take a chance on it as an individual – and assume you won’t move the market – or you can wait and see if Mr Byrnes fancies a pay day today.

In truth, the latter option is the safer - even if the former is potentially more lucrative.

All I will say, is that if the money does come, I would understand why !


Here’s hoping you have a great day, if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.