Sunday 31 January 2016

Review of the day

Mwaleshi ran a decent race at Sedgefield this afternoon – but appeared not to quite get home.

He definitely stays 2m4f, so it was a bit strange to seem him weakening on the extended run from the last - but that appeared to be what happened.

Up until that point, I had been quite happy with him.
He tracked the pace making Nobel Legend and when he took up the running prior to the final fence, be actually touched even money in running.

I have to admit, that my eye was drawn to Firth of the Clyde, throughout the race – but I felt Mwaleshi had the beating of the others.

Ultimately, I guess it didn’t matter – as once he had been passed by Firth of the Clyde, whether he finished second or fourth, was pretty much immaterial.

The fact he ultimately was well beaten will probably mean another significant drop in his handicap mark – and in the right race, he would remain tempting…

There were a few near misses with the ‘mentions’, as well…

Good Vibration couldn’t justify continued strong market support in the handicap hurdle earlier on the card, ending up a well beaten second. However, that was a fair bit better than Lucematic managed in the handicap chase. She was in last place throughout - and didn’t really appear to stay the extended trip.

In the Pertemps qualifier at Punchestown, Not for Burning managed to finish fifth – but the almost inevitable non runner, meant that the bookmakers only paid 3 places, so that wasn’t quite as irritating as it could have been.
Flemenstar ran a gallant race in the Tied Cottage – but couldn’t contain the surge of Felix Yonger, between the final two flights.
Whilst Baie Des Iles couldn’t reel in the front running Bonny Kate, in the Grand National trial later on the card.

It was one of those days…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 31st

Fontwell was washed away on Friday, leaving just the 2 meetings today: at Sedgefield and Punchestown.

Both are reasonable – if unspectacular – with the highlight of the day, the Grade 2 Tied Cottage chase at Punchestown.

I’ve managed to find a tip on the day – and it will be the final tip for January.

It’s been a generally disappointing month: part down to the weather – and part down to me struggling for a bit of form.

Officially speaking, the month will finish about level – which is hardly a disaster.
That said, if you have been just following the tips, I suspect you may have made a slight loss (unless you were able to secure best prices).
Those using the Info, have probably fared a little better, because there were plenty of winning mentions in the first half of the month.
As always, you pay your money, you make your choice…

On to today then – and the rationale for the tip – plus a few other thoughts…


Sedgefield

3:50

Mwaleshi has been on my radar since his first run of this season - and I’m hopeful that I’ve chosen the ‘right’ day to support him…
The run that first caught my eye, was at Aintree, in a veterans chase.
He ultimately finished well beaten that day, but the race was over 3 miles and he showed up well until the home straight.
My feeling was that dropped back half a mile, he would be interesting…
That actually happened in his very next race: but it was quite a hot contest at Wetherby (won by Village Vic) and with the ground a touch quick and his mark unchanged, I opted to leave him alone.
His next run was also over 2m4f – but that was over the National fences – and he only got as far at the 9th
On his most recent run, he was dropped back to 2 miles – but that is probably too short for him, unless he is able to outclass the opposition.
He wasn’t that day, but still ran pretty well behind a couple of decent sorts in Gardefort and Sir Valentino.
As a result of that run, he has been dropped a further 6lb in the handicap – which means he will running today off a mark 10lb lower than he started the season from.
That makes him a very well handicapped horse.
Precisely a year ago today, he ran third at Wetherby off a mark of 142.
That was in a class 2 event and he was beaten just over 2 lengths.
Today, he is running in a class 3 event, over the same trip – off a mark of 125.
I think there is every chance he can take advantage of the handicappers leniency…
In terms of concerns: then I have a couple…
Firstly, there could be a lot of pace in the race – and Mwaleshi likes to race prominently.
That said, I had the same concern over Johnny Og last Saturday – and he managed to find a way round it !
Mwaleshi doesn’t need to front run, so hopefully Danny Cook will find a way to deal with things.
My other slight concern is the ground.
I would prefer heavy (or at least soft) – but the official going description is good to soft.
That said, the going stick reading is 5 – which I generally consider soft – and I honestly can’t believe it can be that quick in Sedgefield at this time of the year.
In truth, both a minor concerns rather than major issues.
All of this said, my biggest concern is definitely market strength.
Winners from the Sue Smith stable – particularly when they have Danny Cook on board – are well backed. Almost without exception.
I could see an argument for Mwaleshi being a 5/2 shot today. If he goes off at bigger than 7/2, I will be worried…

0.5pt win Mwaleshi 4/1


Talking of Smith/Cook runners that are well backed…
Good Vibrations in the handicap hurdle at 2:15, seems to be firmly in that bracket !
He opened up last night at 3/1 – but is a 6/4 shot now !
I thought he faced a couple of potentially interesting rivals in the shape of Carlo Rocks and the well handicapped Up and Go.
However, if the money is down (and it appears to be), I suspect we might see Good Vibrations take his form to another level.

The novice handicap chase at 2:45 looks a pretty open affair…
Victory for any of the 5 runners would come as no great surprise, so in the circumstances I am drawn to the outsider, Lucematic.
She is relatively unexposed for a 10 year old – and has run only once so far this season.
That was when finishing a very creditable third at Newcastle, off the same mark as today.
It’s over 2 months since that race, which is a slight concern – but provided she is ready to do herself justice, I suspect she could outrun her current odds of 7/1 (and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her drift, near the off).


Punchestown


The Tied Cottage chase is off at 3:00.
Felix Yonger is understandably favourite – but you won’t be too surprised to learn that I would be inclined to take him on with Flemenstar.
He took advantage of Un De Sceuxs falls to win the grade 1 two mile chase at Leopardstown over Christmas – and whilst he was maybe a lucky winner that day, it was still very much a step back in the right direction, for this formally high class chaser.
It’s clear that he’ll never reach the heights that were once hoped – but on official ratings, he is still the equal of Felix Yonger – and we know he’s in good form.
Certainly at 4/6 Felix; 9/2 Flemenstar, I know where the value lies…

There is a very tricky looking Pertemps qualifier off at 2:30.
I thought Mall Dini the most likely winner – but I can’t be interested in him at 5/1.
High Stratus is a better value option at 12/1.
He ran a nice race in a conditions event last time – and his 4lb rise for that run is effectively offset by the claim of Donagh Myler.
I think he has a better chance of winning, than his odds imply.
Not for Burning is a less likely winner – but more likely to get placed.
If 16 go to post and you can secure some of the 16/1 with PP, he is worth considering as an EW play.

It’s a little disappointing to see Baie Des Iles installed as 3/1 favourite for the Grand National trial at 4:05 – but I do think she deserves to be market leader.
I was keen on her last time when she won under a peach of a ride from Derek O Connor – and a 6lb weight rise for that win looks fair enough.
She’s not got O Connor in the saddle today – but in Ruby, she has a fair replacement !
Again, it’s a very eye catching booking (particularly as it sees Ruby riding close to his minimum) – and whilst I couldn’t really recommend supporting her at the current price, I do think she is the most likely winner.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Review of the day

There were good runs from 2 of todays 3 tips – but unfortunately, not good enough to get either one home in front…

The best performance was put up by Just Cameron in the 2 mile handicap chase at Doncaster.
He jumped and galloped – and even battled when headed – but alas, was no match for Dandridge, who looked like he had a stone in hand of his handicap mark.

The winner represented the Arthur Moore/Donagh Myler combination and I looked closely at him last night, because of his connections. However, I didn’t feel he had that kind of performance in him…

The other tip to run at Doncaster was Pass the Hat – the second representative on the day, for Moore/Myler.
He also ran a really good race to finish fourth – but clearly wasn’t as well handicapped as his compatriot, as he could never get to Ziga Boy.

We were on Ziga Boy last time out, when he was a very easy winner over course and distance.
However he went up 15lb for that romp and faced much sterner opposition today.
It’s always difficult to know, with those kinds, how they will fare off their new marks – but clearly, despite the apparent severity of the rise, the handicapper hadn’t given him anywhere near enough…

The final tip of the day to run, was Salubrious, at Cheltenham – but he was disappointing…
With Champagne West making a serious mistake – and Irish Cavalier not running his race, Salubrious had every opportunity to win.
He even got the ideal tow into the race from Tenor Nivernais and Annacotty – but rather than stalking and pouncing, he made a couple of mistakes and tamely faded out of contention.
We won’t be on him again in the immediate future…

Earlier on the Cheltenham card, Viva Steve had also faded out of things from the top of the hill.
Fortunately, I did foresee that happening and resisted my initial urge to tip him.
Waldorf Salad ran a mighty race from the front and was possibly a little unlucky not to collect.
If Aiden Coleman had been on board, I would probably have tipped him – so maybe we dodged a bullet there…

Djackadam fell mid race in the Cotswold chase, leaving Smad Place and Many Clouds to fight out the finish.
It was a bit of a shame that Djackadam didn’t complete as I don’t think we learnt much from the race.
I would have expected the first 2 to fight out the finish, in his absence – and remain unconvinced that Smad Place is now a realistic Gold Cup contender.

As for Djackadam, then I think his fall just makes it that bit likelier, that Ruby will be on Vatour in the Gold Cup…

Yanworth was a massively impressive winner of the Neptune hurdle trial – suggesting that he is very much the one to beat in the equivalent race at the festival: whilst Thistlecrack was equally impressive in the Cleeve Hurdle, and he will clearly take all the beating in the World Hurdle.

Camping Ground was a big disappointment in the latter race – as he failed to settle and didn’t get home.
Based on todays run, he would have no chance in the World hurdle - but if the ground were to come up heavy, he could be an interesting rival for Faugheen in the Champion (and there aren’t many of those around at the moment !).

Prairie Town ran a big race in the finale, but was nosed out of third place on the line (I hope not too many of you were on him EW).

Back at Doncaster, Desertmore Hill never really featured in the opener – which was disappointing.

Vaniteux won the novice chase well – and looks the sort who could place in an Arkle (though probably not win one).

Whilst Morning Run just didn’t look particularly good and was well beaten behind Smart Talk and a staying on, Lily Waugh…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 30th

There are 4 NH meeting this afternoon: at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

I knew it was too good to last.
After 2 days with no weather issues, it was a real shock to wake up this morning and find that the big meeting of the day at Cheltenham, was in jeopardy due to extensive overnight rain.
It eventually passed a 10:00 inspection – but I can only imagine what the ground will be like.
Only ducks and mudlarks need apply !

In addition to Cheltenham, there is also a very good card at Doncaster.
The ground will be much better there…

I did have a quick look at the days other two meetings: but there is little of interest at either.
The exception to that, is the reappearance of Morning Assembly at Fairyhouse, after nearly 2 years off the track.
I had high hopes that he would make it to the very top, prior to his injury (he had some titanic battles with Don Cossack during his novice campaign)
He is unlikely to be at his peak today – but hopefully he will come through the race unscathed and then start making up for lost time…

Anyway, I have ended up with 3 tips on the day.
Here is the rationale – plus my thoughts on most of the other big races…


Cheltenham

2:25

I think it is worth taking a risk on Salubrious in this race.
Firstly, he is in danger of becoming a well handicapped horse over fences.
He was rated 153 over hurdles (with justification), so a mark of 144 over fences looks potentially generous.
It can be argued that his performances over fences only merit that kind of rating – but he has run just 4 times over the bigger obstacles, so he still has plenty of scope for improvement.
He actually ran as recently as last weekend, when he finished fourth in a decent race at Ascot.
He was given a bit too much to do that day and could never reel back the leaders.
It’s interesting that Paul Nicholls applies blinkers for the first time today – as it suggests he thinks the horse raced lazily.
The fact he is turned out again so quickly, also suggests he doesn’t think he put it all in, last weekend.
If that is the case, and he can run close to his peak hurdle rating today, then I think he will take a bit of beating.
His rivals at the top of the market are all quite closely tied in on form.
Champagne West is the obvious one to beat – but I would be a little concerned about his tendency to clout the odd fence.
The 2 Jonjo horses are likely to find conditions too testing: and whilst the bottom 2 horses are quite interesting, Lucinda Russell (Final Assault) has not been in great form recently (and her Cheltenham runners don’t tend to do too well) and Un Beau Roman will do well to find todays race falling apart in the same way as the one he won last time.

0.375pt win Salubrious 9/1


I did fancy taking on the novice chase at 1:15 – but I fear the conditions might make it a bit of a lottery…
If the ground wasn’t as bad, I would be tempted by Viva Steve.
However, I’m not sure he wants heavy ground – and I have a niggle that he would also prefer to race right handed.
On balance then, enough concerns to be leaving him alone…
With the ground desperate, then the 2 Venetia horses have to be of interest.
I find it fascinating that Aidan Coleman chooses to ride Astigos - when I would have thought Waldorf Salad was the more obvious one.
I can see Astigos running well – though the fact he is 6lb wrong in the weights (and a serial loser !) tempers enthusiasm a little..
Imagine the Chat is probably the one to beat (though is plenty short enough in the betting): whilst Johnny Og could run well again (but might struggle to get home).

I suspect that Djackadam will show himself to be different class in the Cotswold chase at 1:50 – though I wouldn’t be prepared to bet on it !
Certainly, if this turns into a war of attrition, then you have to think that Ruby might be inclined to look after him, rather than bottom him.
In that scenario, Many Clouds is the most likely to benefit.
He clearly has endless stamina – and will handle the ground.
My only concern with him would be that a win, would effectively scupper his chances of a Grand National repeat.
On balance, I feel there are a few too many ‘alternative agendas’ for me to get involved with the race…

The state of the ground also makes the novice hurdle at 3:00 a difficult race to call.
Neither Yanworth nor Shantou Village are likely to relish desperate conditions, which makes you inclined to look elsewhere.
Chef Doevre could be the one. It’s difficult to evaluate his form, but he ploughed through the mud at Lingfield, so conditions shouldn’t be an issue for him.
The other one that catches my eye, is Clondaw Cian.
He was disappointing last time – but 33/1 is too big a price based on his previous form…

The Cleeve hurdle looks a match between Thistlecrack and Camping Ground, so the latter has to be the choice at 11/4.
It’s true that he is unproven over todays trip – but he certainly wasn’t stopping last time over half a mile less and the ground was very testing that day.
I suspect they will go a sensible gallop (courtesy of Knockara Beau), so it may well end up not being a real stamina test.
If it does come down to who has the best turn of foot, then I think it’s a flip of a coin between the big 2…

The final race on the card looked impossible to call prior to the deluge – so now it appears a complete lottery !
I guess that one of the JP McManus horses could prove very well handicapped – but neither is priced in a way to encourage you to get involved.
I’d be more inclined to take a risk on one of the rank outsiders.
Chieftains Choice could get the run of the race up front (and handles heavy going): whilst Prairie Town will likely stay on late if the pace is frenetic.
Neither one could be backed with any confidence – but odds of 33/1 probably underestimate their chances of causing a shock…


Doncaster

1:30

This is a tough race to call, but I think it is worth taking a chance on Just Cameron…
He was a very progressive novice last season, winning his first 3 chases before finishing second to Un De Sceux, in a grade 1 at the Punchestown festival.
That run almost certainly flatters him – but I suspect it doesn’t flatter him quite as much as the betting thinks…
He reappeared at Sandown at the beginning of this month and whilst he ultimately finished well beaten, I thought he showed distinct promise, is what were very testing conditions.  
He tracked the leader, Arthur’s Oak, to the third last – but then seemed to blow up.
I would be very hopeful that the run will have brought him on and we’ll see a stronger performance today.
In truth, that will need to be the case, as this is a hot race.
On Tour and Red Spinner are novices on the up: whilst Gardefort and Sir Valentine are proven handicappers, in good form.
Most dangerous of all though, is probably Turn Over Sivola.
He is a well handicapped horse, who will get ideal conditions today.
That said, he is not the most prolific of winners and has a fair few miles on the clock.
I would expect Joe Colliver to race prominently on Just Cameron (ideally, he will have an uncontested lead).
He travels strongly in his races and jumps well (touch wood !), so if he can get into a good rhythm up front, I think he will prove difficult for his rivals to pass.

0.25pt win Just Cameron 10/1


3:15

This is not an easy race to call, but I’m drawn towards Pass the Hat.
He’s trained in Ireland by Arthur Moore – and the very fact Moore sends him over for the race, is interesting…
He sent the horse over for the United House Gold cup at Ascot at the beginning of last season, and despite making numerous mistakes on the way round, he still managed to finish fourth.
That was a very fair effort – and Pass the Hat is able to run from a mark 6lb lower today. From a handicapping perspective, that gives him every chance.
More than that, he has crack apprentice Donagh Myler in the saddle this afternoon  - and he is excellent value for his 5lb claim.
I’m guessing that the reason the horse has been sent over to England, is his preference for decent ground (which he will rarely encounter in Ireland).
The 3 mile trip should be perfect for him – so provided his jumping holds up, I think he should run a very big race.
In truth, there are plenty of potential dangers – but non of them have water tight credentials.
Ziga Boy won really well last time out over course and distance, but that was a relatively weak race and he has to race from a mark 15lb higher today. He will find it much tougher…
Ground and trip are a bit of a worry for Le Mercury – plus his inexperience. That said, he has the greatest potential of all the runners…
The one I would be most fearful of, however, in No Planing.
Like Pass the Hat, he is handicapped to go very close today - and should be well suited by conditions.
I’m a fan of Paddy Brennan – but I would still have preferred to see Danny Cook in the saddle. That said, Cook can’t be in two places at once – and his commitment to ride at Cheltenham is understandable.
No Planning might be worth a saver – but I’m happy enough to make Pass the Hat the main bet in the race.

0.25pt win Pass the Hat 12/1


In the opening race on the card, I do like the look of Desertmore Hill…
A bit like with Coozan George in yesterdays opener, the race has so many unknowns, it would be virtually impossible to tip.
However, Desertmore Hill caught my eye in a couple of his novice events and gets to run off a perfectly reasonable mark on his handicapping debut.
He is the only runner than Peter Bowen sends to Doncaster – and Paddy Brennan in the saddle won’t be a hindrance.
6/1 feels quite a tight price in an 18 runner handicap – but it’s probably about right…

There is a cracking novice chase at 1:00 – in which all of the runners can be given some kind of chance…
Arzal could get the run of the race in front – and his sound jumping will make him a tough one to pass.
That said, he could equally end up giving a nice tow to the other 4…
Vaniteux is the one to beat on official ratings; whilst you would have to respect the chances of the Willie Mullins trained Shaneshill – even though he might find the 2 mile trip on quick ground, an insufficient stamina test.
The same could be said of Bouvreuil, who won over further and on softer, last time out.
Fox Norton is very interesting. His sound jumping has stood him in good stead during his novice campaign – and he certainly wasn’t disgrace trying to give weight to Garde Le Victoire, last time at Cheltenham.
I’ll be cheering him on this afternoon – in part because he is owned by one of our number.
Best of luck, Brian !

Whilst I would like to take her on, Morning Run looks the most likely winner of the mares hurdle at 2:05.
She was disappointing last time – but was too keen on her seasonal debut over a trip that was possibly a bit far.
With the gas out of her, she is likely to be a different proposition today and up against horses who generally will find today’s test sharp enough, she is the one to beat.
Certainly Rock on the Moor and Lily Waugh would prefer more of a test – and whilst conditions will be perfect for Intense Tango, I’m not convinced she is classy enough to beat the favourite.


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Friday 29 January 2016

Daily write-up - Jan 29th

There are 2 NH meetings today: at Doncaster and Huntingdon.

And for the second day on the trot, the weather hasn’t messed things up.
There weren’t even any inspections – what are things coming to ?!

More than that, both of todays meetings will be run on relatively good ground.
It’s the first time in weeks that horses have had the opportunity to race in conditions that aren’t desperate, so it’s not too suspiring that Doncaster in particular, has attracted bumper fields.

Despite the number of runners, I was pretty sure I would be able to find a tip or two – and I kind of did.
However, come the points where I was able to tip, the prices either weren’t quite there – or in the case of my main fancy for the day, I chose to delay issuing, and the price subsequently crashed.

It really is a very difficult balance: getting the tips out, whilst ensuring people have a reasonable chance of getting on.

Anyway, what’s done is done.

You’ll still got my thoughts to work with – and I’m sure there will be plenty of market movements before the off.
Opportunities will doubtless present themselves, for those of you who want to seek them out !


Doncaster

He was probably always too risky to tip – but I’m still quite keen on Coozan George, in the opener…
The fact he has never jumped a fence in public, is part of the risk: the other part is that he is taking on 15 rivals – many of whom are similarly unexposed.
However, I some how doubt that many of them will be as well handicapped as him – and I do very much like his trainer in these kind of races (Malcolm Jefferson).
Certainly I think that the more exposed horses in the race don’t set too demanding a standard – the main danger is therefore likely to be The Mumper.
I guess there is a price where Coozan George could have become a tip – though I would always feel a little uncomfortable, because it is mainly guess work.
In truth, 7/1 is probably quite fair – anything bigger would be a bonus…

It is the 2:00 race in which I planned to issue a tip – and the horse in question, was Globalisation…
He won well on his seasonal/fencing debut at the beginning of November, before disappointing later in the month, at Newbury.
However, that was in a better race than todays – and he was sent off a relatively well fancied 8/1 shot.
He ran no sort of race that day – but it took place at a time, when the Rebecca Curtis stable was badly out of form.
I would expect him to bounce back to form today – and in truth, there doesn’t look an awful lot to beat in todays race.
I like that Barry Geraghty is taking the ride – and that Rebecca Curtis seems to have saved him for the better ground.
He was 9/1 this morning (even touched 10/1), which was absolutely fine.
I would have been happy with 8/1 and would have considered 7/1.
However he is now just 5/1 – and even with a non runner in the race, that seems tight.
Ofcourse it won’t stop him from winning, if he is back to form – but I have to try and maintain a ‘value’ edge and I think the value is minimal at that price.

There are 3 horses running in the 2:30, which I’ve already tipped this season – and choosing between them isn’t easy…
Non of the 3 won when I tipped them – though both Night in Milan and Echo Springs briefly looked like they might.
The former has gone on to run a good race at Musselburgh; whilst the latter has disappointed at Kelso.
Over todays trip and on decent ground, I would prefer Night in Milan, of the pair…
Sebastian Beach is the other horse I have previously tipped - but he was just very disappointing.
You would have to ignore that run, if you were going to support him today – and the fact that Jonjo has barely had a runner in weeks, would make supporting him a double act of faith.
I suspect the market will advise on his chances…
Ignoring those 3, it still looks a tough race to call: with favourite, Chantara Rose, the obvious one to beat; but Wolf Shield, the last ever runner for George Moore, the potential fly in the ointment…

If Vintage Vinnie gets an uncontested lead – and manages to get into a good rhythm, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him cause a minor shock in the novice chase at 3:05.
He has disappointed the last twice, but both runs were at Cheltenham and he didn’t seem able to handle the undulations.
I think he will be much more at home on the relatively flat Doncaster track – and I can see him being tough to pass.
That said, he faces 3 talented rivals, so there isn’t a lot of margin in a price of 4/1…


Huntingdon


The Clock Leary is the one that interests me most in the handicap chase at 2:10 – but this is a tricky race to call…
He disappointed on his first two runs this season – but ran much better last time, when blinkers were fitted.
However, he also ran quite freely - and if he does that again, he might struggle to get home, over this slightly longer trip.
In fairness, he is less likely to be as lit up, second time in head gear – and the presence of Aidan Coleman in the saddle could also help.
As could Artiface Sivola - as he could put some pace to the race, which The Clock Leary might be able to settle behind.
If that happens, I think he will take the beating – but there are plenty of ‘ifs’ involved, considering a price of 5/1.
Aside from him, then nothing really stands out – but equally, nothing can be safely dismissed.
On balance, just a bit too tricky to call with confidence…

The other race of interest on the Huntingdon card, is the Pertemps Qualifier, off at 2:40.
However, this is a race where I am struggling to form a strong opinion…
The market is suggesting that Singlefarmpayment, Amiral Collonges or Kerisper are the most likely winners – and it is probably right.
I could make a case for So Fine (back on better ground) and Taj Badalandabad (better for his comeback run – and with cheek pieces replacing the visor) – but I have a feeling they aren’t going to be quite up to it.
My gut feeling is that Kerisper is the most likely winner – but I try to keep tipping based on gut feeling, to an absolute minimum !!


Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.

Review of the day

Well, that was quite exciting, wasn’t it ?!?!

First we had the price crash this morning: and then the drama of the race itself.
Not bad entertainment from one small tip on a dull Thursday afternoon !

To be honest, I’ve no idea how Beforeall won today…
I wasn’t optimistic when I saw him reigned back off a strong early pace – and as he was crowded through the early stages of the race, my optimism fell further.

With a circuit to go, I felt it far more likely that he would be pulled up, than win – but that clearly wasn’t how Leighton Aspell saw things…

He kept on pushing – and when his rivals starting falling away one by one, there was a gradual  realisation that Beforeall had a chance.

Admittedly, even jumping the second last, it looked a slim chance – but on the run to the final fence, it became clear that he just might do it.

Jumping the last, he looked sure to win - but then Regal Flow battle back and it was only in the shadow of the post, that Beforeall managed to claim him.

It was very nice to have one go our way for a change…

In truth, it could easily have been two on the day, as I did consider putting up As De Fer as well.
I decided against it because there were just a few too many that I fancied in the race – but he put them all to the sword, coming home unchallenged by 26 lengths.

My 5 horse short list contained the first 4 home. It’s a shame you can’t do a quadcast – but the tricast paid £134, for anyone who took the risk !

In the following race at Warwick, both Knight of the Realm and Vice et Vertu ran well – but ultimately didn’t get home, in what were truly desperate conditions.
The latter in particular, is worth keeping an eye on…

Finally, at Thurles, Smashing looked different class to his rivals in the conditions chase.
He was running on empty over the final 2 fences – but over the minimum trip and on better ground, it will take a decent one to beat him.

He might not be quite up to the standard of Un De Sceux, but I would like to bet that there aren’t many better 2 mile chasers around at the moment,
Definitely one to bear in mind for the spring festivals…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 28th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: Fakenham and Warwick in the UK – plus a second day at Thurles, in Ireland…

I guess the big talking point today, is the price crash of the tip, Beforeall…

Those of you with decent memories, will recall that I tipped the same horse at Sandown last season – and exactly the same thing happened.
He was 28/1 when I issued the tip that day – and ended up going off at 8/1 (and running very well).

I do think that we triggered the run on the horse today – but I don’t think we were responsible for the almighty crash that took place.
My feeling is that without the involvement of others his price would have settled at around 10 or 11/1.

The fact it has fallen so low (5/1 as I write this), leads me to believe that I am not the only one who fancies it today – which has to be considered a good thing.

Ofcourse, it doesn’t mean it will win – but it does mean that it is likely to be trying its level best to do so.

Here’s the rationale for my fancying it – and a few other thoughts on the day…


Fakenham

2:30

I always feel that it’s a big advantage to front run at Fakenham…
It’s a very sharp track and if a horse can grab the rail, it can control things from the front.
There are 2 potential front runners in this race: Fruity O Rooney and Beforeall…
Fruity O Rooney has been in great form recently – and I was quite tempted by him.
An ultra game win at Ascot in November, was followed by a creditable run at Lingfield last month.
From a handicapping perspective, he is still very well weighted on a mark of 124 – but he’s 13 now and probably vulnerable to younger legs…
Beforeall is only 8 and therefore coming to his peak.
He too is well handicapped, as he is running today off a mark of 124 – 1lb lower than the mark he was last successful from.
That was nearly 2 years ago – but at the time, he looked a chaser going places…
Things didn’t really work out that way last season – but he still managed to run one very good race.
That was at Sandown, almost exactly a year ago.
He ran in a class 2 race that day and finished a highly creditable third to Le Reve.
If he can recapture that form today, I think he will win.
The risk with him, is that he disappointed on his 2 subsequent outings last season – and has not run this season.
We therefore have to take his fitness on trust. That said, he has run well fresh in the past – and the fitting of a first time tongue tie, suggests to me that connections plan to give it a good shot.
The trip and ground should be absolutely fine for him today – so if he is ready to go, then I would expect him to run a very big race.
Of the 3 favourites, then Amidon is the one I fear the most: whilst from a pure handicapping perspective, Bucking the Trend could be a danger (he beat Beforeall a couple of seasons ago and is a little better off at the weights today).
All this said, it was always Beforeall that I wanted to side with – so long as his strength in the market is maintained to the off…

0.25pt win Beforeall 14/1


Warwick


There are a couple of decent races on the Warwick card.
I half considered getting involved with both of them – but just didn’t feel strongly enough about any of the runners (and couldn’t see sufficient value to warrant a speculative play).

In the handicap chase at 2:20, my ‘short’ list consisted of 5:
Willoughby Hedge, Castarnie, Bear Rails, As De Fer and Itoldyou.
Of the 5, then it was Castarnie and As De Fer that I considered tipping -however I didn’t feel there was massive value in their early prices.
That said, Castarnie has been backed from 8/1 into 5/1; whilst As De Fer has been backed form 10/1 into 8/1, so maybe I was wrong !
The market will be driven by Willoughby Hedge, who is probably too short now, at 5/2. As he drifts, others will inevitably shorten…
If you want to take a risk in the race, then Itoldyou is the one.
He has run poorly on his 2 outings this season - but as a result is now on a mark 2lb below his last winning mark (and that is excluding Thomas Garners 3lb claim)
Cheek pieces have been applied to try and liven him up and if they have the desired effect, he is more than capable of outrunning his 33/1 price.
That said, it’s a race where I couldn’t conclusively rule anything out – and therefore one where I am disinclined to get heavily involved…

The handicap hurdle at 2:55 is another race where a fair few can be given a chance…
It is at least possible to eliminate a few from calculations for this race – but unfortunately, as they are the outsiders, it doesn’t help that much…
The one I fancy most in the race, is Knight of the Realm – but he’s managed to make his way to favouritism this morning (having been 9/1 last night).
I feel that he has the least question marks against him – though I wouldn’t be too surprised to see something beat him.
I did wonder if that might be Vice et Vertu – and if money came for him, I would definitely take notice.
However, a poor run by him today will likely see his handicap rating drop by 5lbs – and connections will probably find that too tempting…
The others of interest all sit close to the head of the betting – so it’s difficult to find an angle with them.
In summary, Knight of the Realm has least question marks against him – but odds of 6/1 represent minimal value in an open race.


Thurles


Todays card at Thurles looks a little less fraught with danger than yesterdays – but betting opportunities are still very thin on the ground…

The highlight of the card is the conditions chase at 2:15.
I would expect this to be taken by Smashing, even though his absence since November is a little concerning.
That said, he’s a horse who goes well fresh, so I doubt it will be a major negative.
What is a major negative however, is his price of 11/8. It’s difficult to argue with – but it wouldn’t draw me in.
Of more interest is the 4/1 on offer about Nearly Nama’d.
He’s stepping up in grade today – but might be up to the job.
That said, with it impossible to rule out Avant Tout, it is probably just a watching race…


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Review of the day

Money for Nothing ran much better today than was the case last time – but he didn’t run well enough to ever give us much hope of collecting.

He was a bit more settled in the first time hood – but he gave the leaders a lot of rope and ultimately, couldn’t reel them back.

He ended up finishing a reasonable third – though a fair way behind the second horse.

I suspect he needs dropping in class (plus maybe a slightly further trip): I’m sure there are races to be won with him…

Earlier on the card, Veroce was backed into 7/2 favouritism in the staying chase and whilst he was travelling very nicely at half way, a few sloppy jumps ultimately ruined his chances.
He could only finish fourth, just in front of Admiral Blake.

Over at Thurles, Knockraha Pylon ran a mighty race on his seasonal debut – but was collared by Dragon Khan on the run to the last.
He possibly deserved better.

Goonyella ran a perfect race in the handicap hurdle (from a Grand National perspective !): up with the speed throughout, he lost his place when the pace quickened on the turn for home, before staying on very nicely in the closing stages to finish fourth.

Finally the Charles Byrnes trained Either or Out, was eventually sent off at 25/1 in the handicap hurdle (having opened at 5/1 this morning !) - and he was indeed beaten around 100 lengths.
What was amusing however, was that other Byrnes/Russell runner on the card, Oscar Lantern, was backed in from 4/1 this morning to 11/10 at the off – and duly delivered..!

Some races are best just watched !

TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 27th

The abandonment of Bangor early this morning, means that NH racing will take place at just Catterick and Thurles this afternoon….

I’ve been running this service for almost 4 seasons now and this month is fast becoming the most frustrating that I’ve experienced in all that time.

Every single meeting seems to have been in some doubt – with at least one being lost most days.

I hate to think how much time I’ve spent studying form for races which ended up not taking place – and coming up with tips that I’ve been unable to issue.

There was another one today at Bangor – and one that I was pretty keen on.
I realise that it’s nobody’s fault – and there’s nothing that can be done about it – but it can still drive you mad !

Anyway, it is as it is…

I’ve still ended up with a small tip on the day.
It’s a horse that I tipped last time it ran – but it was a big disappointment that day.
My original intention was to leave it alone today – but on balance, I think it is worth a tiny play, to see if it can redeem itself !

Here’s the rationale – plus a few other very brief thoughts…


Catterick

3:35

Money for Nothing was one of two horses that I tipped in a small race at Market Rasen on Boxing day.
I felt he had a very good chance that day, in what looked an incredibly weak contest.
However, things didn’t pan out as I’d hoped.
There was no pace in the race and Money for Nothing pulled like crazy.
He never gave himself a chance – and a mistake before half way sealed his fate.
He has been dropped 3lb for that run – but more importantly, a hood has been applied and Adam Wedge returned to the saddle.
Wedge rode him on his penultimate run at Bangor (when he caught my eye) but was replaced by Alain Cawley, last time.
Hopefully the hood will settle Money for Nothing today – and Aye Well should provide some pace.
If that happens, then hopefully Money for Nothing will run his race and we can find out how good he is…
In truth, there is a chance that he won’t be quite good enough.
He is stepping up in grade today and therefore taking on better class rivals.
That said, subsequent events seem to suggest that I underestimated the strength of the race he ran in last time…
The winner, Chankilla, has subsequently run poorly at Towcester – but the 3 other horses who finished behind him that day have run in 4 subsequent races between them – and won all 4 !
I’m not sure that has a particular relevance to the chance of Money for Nothing today – but it’s interesting non the less !
In terms of his rivals, then the one I fear most, is Uno Valeroso…
We were also on him last time – but he was unlucky not win, just failing to reel in long time leader, Cloudy Joker.
The handicapper has kept him on the same mark following that run – and that makes him the one to beat.
However, a best price of 3/1has little margin in it…
A case of sorts can be made for most of the others, and Aye Well will be a big danger if he gets an uncontested lead.
However, I think Money for Nothing has a chance, provided he settles in the race – and that chance is a fair bit better than the 20/1 on offer…

0.125pt win Money for Nothing 20/1


The only other race of interest, from a betting perspective, on the Catterick card, is the handicap chase at 1:50.
However, this is a low grade affair and consequently it is difficult to be confident when assessing it.
Veroce is the one I’m most drawn to. It’s not easy to get a proper handle on him, but was a beaten favourite last time over a shorter trip.
I would expect him to do better today – particularly if he is ridden more aggressively.
However, a best price of 9/2 leaves little margin for error.
Admiral Blake was the other one that caught my eye – but he is risky (on only his second outing over fences) and again, the price of 6/1 has little juice in it…


Thurles


Virtually all of the races on the Thurles card look like ones to avoid from a betting perspective.

That said, there are a few interesting horses running, who are worth keeping an eye on…

Most notably, Goonyella, who runs in the handicap hurdle at 3:25.
He is my (and Robs !) long range fancy for the Grand National – and I’m sure its no coincidence that he’s racing over hurdles (rather than fences) with the weights for the big race due out in the next few weeks.
I wouldn’t expect him to win today – but I would be hopeful that he will put up a decent show.

In the following race on the card (4:00) it’s fascinating to see Charles Byrnes Either or Out, drifting to 15/2, having opened up a 5/1.
The horse has run in 4 maiden hurdles – and been beaten by an average of 100 lengths in each race.
In such circumstances, you might wonder how he was ever installed at 5/1 – but this is Charles Byrnes we are talking about !
Furthermore, Davy Russell is in the saddle - so it’s no surprise, that the bookmakers priced up ‘cautiously’…
It’s also no suspire to see that he’s not been backed – Charles isn’t stupid !
It will likely be a game of cat and mouse until the off – but my guess is that Either or Out will be beaten 100+ lengths again today (unless he is very well backed late on !).

Finally, The Maguires (Adrian and Finny) team up with Knockraha Pylon in the handicap hurdle at 2:15.
The horse is making its seasonal debut, and sports first time blinkers.
He’s very difficult to get a handle on (won a maiden last year), but unlike Either or Out, you are almost guaranteed to get a run for your money if you back it.
That said, 8/1 in a 16 runner handicap, doesn’t strike me as particularly good value…


Here’s hoping for great day ahead !
TVB.

Daily write-up - Jan 26th

Both Leicester and Wetherby have survived the weather today – which is a bit of a surprise…

Needless to say, they will be racing on heavy ground, so there will be an element of ‘lottery’ to contend with…

The ground at Kempton yesterday wasn’t too bad – yet the result of the main race, left me baffled.
As I’m sure you will recall, I was quite keen on Barrakilla.
He ran a perfectly respectable race to finish third – and whilst I was a little disappointed that he couldn’t win (for no apparent reason – other than a mistake at the second last), I can accept these things happen - provided he is beaten by the ‘right’ horses…

And that’s the issue at this time of year – the results have an element of randomness about them.
It really was very difficult to fancy the winner, Roc D’Apsis.
He had been pulled up the last time he ran – off a mark just 1lb higher.
Admittedly he was wearing cheek pieces for the first time – and had been given a short break – but even so, you had to be quite creative to make a case for him off a mark 9lb higher than his last success.
He was even been beaten twice last season, over yesterdays course and distance, off much lower marks.
Yet, for whatever reason, he won yesterdays race quite comfortably…

As I’ve said previously, this current ‘randomness’ does make selecting horses with any confidence, a tricky thing to do…

Anyway, things are as they are…

There was never much danger of me tipping – or even being particularly keen – on any of todays runners…

In fairness, neither of todays meetings is too bad – there is just nothing running that particularly appeals to me.

The most interesting horse of the day, is probably Deep Trouble, who runs in the novice chase at Leicester (2:30).
He was a very useful hurdler (he won at the 2014 Punchestown festival) and I suspect he could be just as good over fences.
He caught my eye last time out at Kempton, and I could have been interested in him today – in the right conditions.
However, he is a horse with a marked preference for decent ground – so I can’t see him being suited by todays going.
He has also tended to run his best races when wearing a hood – so it’s a concern that he’s not wearing one today.
Bearing these 2 points in mind, the early money for him is interesting.
However, I would be more inclined to take a watching brief, as I suspect that today is more about preparing him for a big end of season contest.

Over at Wetherby, there are a couple of reasonable handicap chases…

In the first of them (2:20), I could have been quite tempted to take on the favourite, Take the Mick, if it weren’t for the application of first time blinkers.
Certainly, the way he ran last time at Ludlow suggested that he needed some kind of head gear – though even with the blinkers in place, I would be wary of him…
Tutchec is the one that interested me most in the race – despite having a desperate time of things last season.
As a result of that, his handicap mark has plummeted – and the stable of Nicky Richards is in decent form at the moment.
However, the market is wise to him and a best price of 7/2 makes no appeal, with so many risks involved…

The final race of interest, is the handicap chase at 3:25.
Unfortunately the market looks to have the right one at its head, in the shape of Azert De Coeur.
That said, I think he is too short, at the current 2/1, as a case can be made for a few of his rivals…
Throthethatch is the most obvious one to oppose him with – though I have a feeling that Plus Jamais will run better than odds of 12/1 imply.
In truth, it’s a race where nothing can be safely discounted – and therefore another, where a watching brief is probably the best policy.


Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.