There are 4 NH meeting this afternoon: at Cheltenham,
Doncaster and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.
I
knew it was too good to last.
After 2 days with no weather issues, it was a real shock
to wake up this morning and find that the big meeting of the day at Cheltenham,
was in jeopardy due to extensive overnight rain.
It
eventually passed a 10:00 inspection – but I can only imagine what the ground
will be like.
Only
ducks and mudlarks need apply !
In
addition to Cheltenham, there is also a very good card at Doncaster.
The
ground will be much better there…
I
did have a quick look at the days other two meetings: but there is little of
interest at either.
The exception to that, is the reappearance of Morning
Assembly at Fairyhouse, after nearly 2 years off the track.
I
had high hopes that he would make it to the very top, prior to his injury (he
had some titanic battles with Don Cossack during his novice campaign)
He
is unlikely to be at his peak today – but hopefully he will come through the
race unscathed and then start making up for lost time…
Anyway, I have ended up with 3 tips on the day.
Here
is the rationale – plus my thoughts on most of the other big races…
Cheltenham
2:25
I
think it is worth taking a risk on Salubrious in this race.
Firstly, he is in danger of becoming a well handicapped
horse over fences.
He
was rated 153 over hurdles (with justification), so a mark of 144 over fences
looks potentially generous.
It
can be argued that his performances over fences only merit that kind of rating –
but he has run just 4 times over the bigger obstacles, so he still has plenty of
scope for improvement.
He
actually ran as recently as last weekend, when he finished fourth in a decent
race at Ascot.
He
was given a bit too much to do that day and could never reel back the
leaders.
It’s
interesting that Paul Nicholls applies blinkers for the first time today – as it
suggests he thinks the horse raced lazily.
The
fact he is turned out again so quickly, also suggests he doesn’t think he put it
all in, last weekend.
If
that is the case, and he can run close to his peak hurdle rating today, then I
think he will take a bit of beating.
His
rivals at the top of the market are all quite closely tied in on
form.
Champagne West is the obvious one to beat – but I would
be a little concerned about his tendency to clout the odd fence.
The
2 Jonjo horses are likely to find conditions too testing: and whilst the bottom
2 horses are quite interesting, Lucinda Russell (Final Assault) has not been in
great form recently (and her Cheltenham runners don’t tend to do too well) and
Un Beau Roman will do well to find todays race falling apart in the same way as
the one he won last time.
0.375pt win Salubrious 9/1
I
did fancy taking on the novice chase at 1:15 – but I fear the conditions might
make it a bit of a lottery…
If
the ground wasn’t as bad, I would be tempted by Viva Steve.
However, I’m not sure he wants heavy ground – and I have
a niggle that he would also prefer to race right handed.
On
balance then, enough concerns to be leaving him alone…
With
the ground desperate, then the 2 Venetia horses have to be of
interest.
I
find it fascinating that Aidan Coleman chooses to ride Astigos - when I would
have thought Waldorf Salad was the more obvious one.
I
can see Astigos running well – though the fact he is 6lb wrong in the weights
(and a serial loser !) tempers enthusiasm a little..
Imagine the Chat is probably the one to beat (though is
plenty short enough in the betting): whilst Johnny Og could run well again (but
might struggle to get home).
I
suspect that Djackadam will show himself to be different class in the Cotswold
chase at 1:50 – though I wouldn’t be prepared to bet on it !
Certainly, if this turns into a war of attrition, then
you have to think that Ruby might be inclined to look after him, rather than
bottom him.
In
that scenario, Many Clouds is the most likely to benefit.
He
clearly has endless stamina – and will handle the ground.
My
only concern with him would be that a win, would effectively scupper his chances
of a Grand National repeat.
On
balance, I feel there are a few too many ‘alternative agendas’ for me to get
involved with the race…
The
state of the ground also makes the novice hurdle at 3:00 a difficult race to
call.
Neither Yanworth nor Shantou Village are likely to relish
desperate conditions, which makes you inclined to look elsewhere.
Chef
Doevre could be the one. It’s difficult to evaluate his form, but he ploughed
through the mud at Lingfield, so conditions shouldn’t be an issue for
him.
The other one that catches my eye, is Clondaw Cian.
He
was disappointing last time – but 33/1 is too big a price based on his previous
form…
The
Cleeve hurdle looks a match between Thistlecrack and Camping Ground, so the
latter has to be the choice at 11/4.
It’s
true that he is unproven over todays trip – but he certainly wasn’t stopping
last time over half a mile less and the ground was very testing that
day.
I
suspect they will go a sensible gallop (courtesy of Knockara Beau), so it may
well end up not being a real stamina test.
If
it does come down to who has the best turn of foot, then I think it’s a flip of
a coin between the big 2…
The
final race on the card looked impossible to call prior to the deluge – so now it
appears a complete lottery !
I
guess that one of the JP McManus horses could prove very well handicapped – but
neither is priced in a way to encourage you to get involved.
I’d be more
inclined to take a risk on one of the rank outsiders.
Chieftains Choice could get the run of the race up front
(and handles heavy going): whilst Prairie Town will likely stay on late if the
pace is frenetic.
Neither one could be backed with any confidence – but
odds of 33/1 probably underestimate their chances of causing a shock…
Doncaster
1:30
This
is a tough race to call, but I think it is worth taking a chance on Just
Cameron…
He
was a very progressive novice last season, winning his first 3 chases before
finishing second to Un De Sceux, in a grade 1 at the Punchestown
festival.
That
run almost certainly flatters him – but I suspect it doesn’t flatter him quite
as much as the betting thinks…
He
reappeared at Sandown at the beginning of this month and whilst he ultimately
finished well beaten, I thought he showed distinct promise, is what were very
testing conditions.
He
tracked the leader, Arthur’s Oak, to the third last – but then seemed to blow
up.
I
would be very hopeful that the run will have brought him on and we’ll see a
stronger performance today.
In
truth, that will need to be the case, as this is a hot race.
On
Tour and Red Spinner are novices on the up: whilst Gardefort and Sir Valentine
are proven handicappers, in good form.
Most
dangerous of all though, is probably Turn Over Sivola.
He is a well
handicapped horse, who will get ideal conditions today.
That said, he is not
the most prolific of winners and has a fair few miles on the clock.
I
would expect Joe Colliver to race prominently on Just Cameron (ideally, he will
have an uncontested lead).
He
travels strongly in his races and jumps well (touch wood !), so if he can get
into a good rhythm up front, I think he will prove difficult for his rivals to
pass.
0.25pt win Just Cameron 10/1
3:15
This
is not an easy race to call, but I’m drawn towards Pass the Hat.
He’s
trained in Ireland by Arthur Moore – and the very fact Moore sends him over for
the race, is interesting…
He
sent the horse over for the United House Gold cup at Ascot at the beginning of
last season, and despite making numerous mistakes on the way round, he still
managed to finish fourth.
That
was a very fair effort – and Pass the Hat is able to run from a mark 6lb lower
today. From a handicapping perspective, that gives him every chance.
More
than that, he has crack apprentice Donagh Myler in the saddle this
afternoon - and he is excellent value
for his 5lb claim.
I’m
guessing that the reason the horse has been sent over to England, is his
preference for decent ground (which he will rarely encounter in Ireland).
The
3 mile trip should be perfect for him – so provided his jumping holds up, I
think he should run a very big race.
In
truth, there are plenty of potential dangers – but non of them have water tight
credentials.
Ziga
Boy won really well last time out over course and distance, but that was a
relatively weak race and he has to race from a mark 15lb higher today. He will
find it much tougher…
Ground and trip are a bit of a worry for Le Mercury –
plus his inexperience. That said, he has the greatest potential of all the
runners…
The
one I would be most fearful of, however, in No Planing.
Like Pass the Hat, he
is handicapped to go very close today - and should be well suited by
conditions.
I’m
a fan of Paddy Brennan – but I would still have preferred to see Danny Cook in
the saddle. That said, Cook can’t be in two places at once – and his commitment
to ride at Cheltenham is understandable.
No
Planning might be worth a saver – but I’m happy enough to make Pass the Hat the
main bet in the race.
0.25pt win Pass the Hat 12/1
In
the opening race on the card, I do like the look of Desertmore Hill…
A
bit like with Coozan George in yesterdays opener, the race has so many unknowns,
it would be virtually impossible to tip.
However, Desertmore Hill caught my eye in a couple of his
novice events and gets to run off a perfectly reasonable mark on his
handicapping debut.
He
is the only runner than Peter Bowen sends to Doncaster – and Paddy Brennan in
the saddle won’t be a hindrance.
6/1
feels quite a tight price in an 18 runner handicap – but it’s probably about
right…
There is a cracking novice chase at 1:00 – in which all
of the runners can be given some kind of chance…
Arzal could get the run of the race in front – and his
sound jumping will make him a tough one to pass.
That
said, he could equally end up giving a nice tow to the other 4…
Vaniteux is the one to beat on official ratings; whilst
you would have to respect the chances of the Willie Mullins trained Shaneshill –
even though he might find the 2 mile trip on quick ground, an insufficient
stamina test.
The
same could be said of Bouvreuil, who won over further and on softer, last time
out.
Fox
Norton is very interesting. His sound jumping has stood him in good stead during
his novice campaign – and he certainly wasn’t disgrace trying to give weight to
Garde Le Victoire, last time at Cheltenham.
I’ll
be cheering him on this afternoon – in part because he is owned by one of our
number.
Best
of luck, Brian !
Whilst I would like to take her on, Morning Run looks the
most likely winner of the mares hurdle at 2:05.
She was disappointing last
time – but was too keen on her seasonal debut over a trip that was possibly a
bit far.
With
the gas out of her, she is likely to be a different proposition today and up
against horses who generally will find today’s test sharp enough, she is the one
to beat.
Certainly Rock on the Moor and Lily Waugh would prefer
more of a test – and whilst conditions will be perfect for Intense Tango, I’m
not convinced she is classy enough to beat the favourite.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.