Daily write-up - Jan 30th

There are 4 NH meeting this afternoon: at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Uttoxeter in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

I knew it was too good to last.

After 2 days with no weather issues, it was a real shock to wake up this morning and find that the big meeting of the day at Cheltenham, was in jeopardy due to extensive overnight rain.

It eventually passed a 10:00 inspection – but I can only imagine what the ground will be like.

Only ducks and mudlarks need apply !

In addition to Cheltenham, there is also a very good card at Doncaster.

The ground will be much better there…

I did have a quick look at the days other two meetings: but there is little of interest at either.
The exception to that, is the reappearance of Morning Assembly at Fairyhouse, after nearly 2 years off the track.

I had high hopes that he would make it to the very top, prior to his injury (he had some titanic battles with Don Cossack during his novice campaign)

He is unlikely to be at his peak today – but hopefully he will come through the race unscathed and then start making up for lost time…

Anyway, I have ended up with 3 tips on the day.
Here is the rationale – plus my thoughts on most of the other big races…

Cheltenham

2:25

I think it is worth taking a risk on Salubrious in this race.

Firstly, he is in danger of becoming a well handicapped horse over fences.

He was rated 153 over hurdles (with justification), so a mark of 144 over fences looks potentially generous.

It can be argued that his performances over fences only merit that kind of rating – but he has run just 4 times over the bigger obstacles, so he still has plenty of scope for improvement.

He actually ran as recently as last weekend, when he finished fourth in a decent race at Ascot.

He was given a bit too much to do that day and could never reel back the leaders.

It’s interesting that Paul Nicholls applies blinkers for the first time today – as it suggests he thinks the horse raced lazily.

The fact he is turned out again so quickly, also suggests he doesn’t think he put it all in, last weekend.

If that is the case, and he can run close to his peak hurdle rating today, then I think he will take a bit of beating.

His rivals at the top of the market are all quite closely tied in on form.

Champagne West is the obvious one to beat – but I would be a little concerned about his tendency to clout the odd fence.

The 2 Jonjo horses are likely to find conditions too testing: and whilst the bottom 2 horses are quite interesting, Lucinda Russell (Final Assault) has not been in great form recently (and her Cheltenham runners don’t tend to do too well) and Un Beau Roman will do well to find todays race falling apart in the same way as the one he won last time.

0.375pt win Salubrious 9/1

I did fancy taking on the novice chase at 1:15 – but I fear the conditions might make it a bit of a lottery…

If the ground wasn’t as bad, I would be tempted by Viva Steve.

However, I’m not sure he wants heavy ground – and I have a niggle that he would also prefer to race right handed.

On balance then, enough concerns to be leaving him alone…

With the ground desperate, then the 2 Venetia horses have to be of interest.

I find it fascinating that Aidan Coleman chooses to ride Astigos - when I would have thought Waldorf Salad was the more obvious one.

I can see Astigos running well – though the fact he is 6lb wrong in the weights (and a serial loser !) tempers enthusiasm a little..

Imagine the Chat is probably the one to beat (though is plenty short enough in the betting): whilst Johnny Og could run well again (but might struggle to get home).

I suspect that Djackadam will show himself to be different class in the Cotswold chase at 1:50 – though I wouldn’t be prepared to bet on it !

Certainly, if this turns into a war of attrition, then you have to think that Ruby might be inclined to look after him, rather than bottom him.

In that scenario, Many Clouds is the most likely to benefit.

He clearly has endless stamina – and will handle the ground.

My only concern with him would be that a win, would effectively scupper his chances of a Grand National repeat.

On balance, I feel there are a few too many ‘alternative agendas’ for me to get involved with the race…

The state of the ground also makes the novice hurdle at 3:00 a difficult race to call.

Neither Yanworth nor Shantou Village are likely to relish desperate conditions, which makes you inclined to look elsewhere.

Chef Doevre could be the one. It’s difficult to evaluate his form, but he ploughed through the mud at Lingfield, so conditions shouldn’t be an issue for him.
The other one that catches my eye, is Clondaw Cian.

He was disappointing last time – but 33/1 is too big a price based on his previous form…

The Cleeve hurdle looks a match between Thistlecrack and Camping Ground, so the latter has to be the choice at 11/4.

It’s true that he is unproven over todays trip – but he certainly wasn’t stopping last time over half a mile less and the ground was very testing that day.

I suspect they will go a sensible gallop (courtesy of Knockara Beau), so it may well end up not being a real stamina test.

If it does come down to who has the best turn of foot, then I think it’s a flip of a coin between the big 2…

The final race on the card looked impossible to call prior to the deluge – so now it appears a complete lottery !

I guess that one of the JP McManus horses could prove very well handicapped – but neither is priced in a way to encourage you to get involved.
I’d be more inclined to take a risk on one of the rank outsiders.

Chieftains Choice could get the run of the race up front (and handles heavy going): whilst Prairie Town will likely stay on late if the pace is frenetic.

Neither one could be backed with any confidence – but odds of 33/1 probably underestimate their chances of causing a shock…

Doncaster

1:30

This is a tough race to call, but I think it is worth taking a chance on Just Cameron…

He was a very progressive novice last season, winning his first 3 chases before finishing second to Un De Sceux, in a grade 1 at the Punchestown festival.

That run almost certainly flatters him – but I suspect it doesn’t flatter him quite as much as the betting thinks…

He reappeared at Sandown at the beginning of this month and whilst he ultimately finished well beaten, I thought he showed distinct promise, is what were very testing conditions.  

He tracked the leader, Arthur’s Oak, to the third last – but then seemed to blow up.

I would be very hopeful that the run will have brought him on and we’ll see a stronger performance today.

In truth, that will need to be the case, as this is a hot race.

On Tour and Red Spinner are novices on the up: whilst Gardefort and Sir Valentine are proven handicappers, in good form.

Most dangerous of all though, is probably Turn Over Sivola.
He is a well handicapped horse, who will get ideal conditions today.
That said, he is not the most prolific of winners and has a fair few miles on the clock.

I would expect Joe Colliver to race prominently on Just Cameron (ideally, he will have an uncontested lead).

He travels strongly in his races and jumps well (touch wood !), so if he can get into a good rhythm up front, I think he will prove difficult for his rivals to pass.

0.25pt win Just Cameron 10/1

3:15

This is not an easy race to call, but I’m drawn towards Pass the Hat.

He’s trained in Ireland by Arthur Moore – and the very fact Moore sends him over for the race, is interesting…

He sent the horse over for the United House Gold cup at Ascot at the beginning of last season, and despite making numerous mistakes on the way round, he still managed to finish fourth.

That was a very fair effort – and Pass the Hat is able to run from a mark 6lb lower today. From a handicapping perspective, that gives him every chance.

More than that, he has crack apprentice Donagh Myler in the saddle this afternoon  - and he is excellent value for his 5lb claim.

I’m guessing that the reason the horse has been sent over to England, is his preference for decent ground (which he will rarely encounter in Ireland).

The 3 mile trip should be perfect for him – so provided his jumping holds up, I think he should run a very big race.

In truth, there are plenty of potential dangers – but non of them have water tight credentials.

Ziga Boy won really well last time out over course and distance, but that was a relatively weak race and he has to race from a mark 15lb higher today. He will find it much tougher…

Ground and trip are a bit of a worry for Le Mercury – plus his inexperience. That said, he has the greatest potential of all the runners…

The one I would be most fearful of, however, in No Planing.
Like Pass the Hat, he is handicapped to go very close today - and should be well suited by conditions.

I’m a fan of Paddy Brennan – but I would still have preferred to see Danny Cook in the saddle. That said, Cook can’t be in two places at once – and his commitment to ride at Cheltenham is understandable.

No Planning might be worth a saver – but I’m happy enough to make Pass the Hat the main bet in the race.

0.25pt win Pass the Hat 12/1

In the opening race on the card, I do like the look of Desertmore Hill…

A bit like with Coozan George in yesterdays opener, the race has so many unknowns, it would be virtually impossible to tip.

However, Desertmore Hill caught my eye in a couple of his novice events and gets to run off a perfectly reasonable mark on his handicapping debut.

He is the only runner than Peter Bowen sends to Doncaster – and Paddy Brennan in the saddle won’t be a hindrance.

6/1 feels quite a tight price in an 18 runner handicap – but it’s probably about right…

There is a cracking novice chase at 1:00 – in which all of the runners can be given some kind of chance…

Arzal could get the run of the race in front – and his sound jumping will make him a tough one to pass.

That said, he could equally end up giving a nice tow to the other 4…

Vaniteux is the one to beat on official ratings; whilst you would have to respect the chances of the Willie Mullins trained Shaneshill – even though he might find the 2 mile trip on quick ground, an insufficient stamina test.

The same could be said of Bouvreuil, who won over further and on softer, last time out.

Fox Norton is very interesting. His sound jumping has stood him in good stead during his novice campaign – and he certainly wasn’t disgrace trying to give weight to Garde Le Victoire, last time at Cheltenham.

I’ll be cheering him on this afternoon – in part because he is owned by one of our number.

Best of luck, Brian !

Whilst I would like to take her on, Morning Run looks the most likely winner of the mares hurdle at 2:05.
She was disappointing last time – but was too keen on her seasonal debut over a trip that was possibly a bit far.

With the gas out of her, she is likely to be a different proposition today and up against horses who generally will find today’s test sharp enough, she is the one to beat.

Certainly Rock on the Moor and Lily Waugh would prefer more of a test – and whilst conditions will be perfect for Intense Tango, I’m not convinced she is classy enough to beat the favourite.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.