Friday 29 January 2016

Review of the day

For probably the first time this season, it all feels like a bit of a struggle at the moment…

No joy with any of todays selections, means that we have officially dipped into the red for the month – and whist we remain well in the black for the season, it’s still not something I wanted to happen.

It’s not for the want of trying, either:
I spent 4 hours this morning producing the write-up and issuing the tips – and even longer studying the form, yesterday.
If it was just down to the effort put in, we’d be flying !

And in truth, we could be.
I could easily have put up Johnny Og instead of Shotovodka – and Cloudy Too instead of Tara Road.
They were similar situations – but I made the wrong choice with both.
It really is a game of fine lines….

Johnny Og in particular, was a tough one to take, as we would have been on him at Newbury earlier in the week – if that meeting hadn’t been abandoned.
These things happen, I guess.

In terms of how the tips I did issue performed, then there was precious little to get excited about:

Shotovodka didn’t seem to take to the blinkers at Haydock and was under pressure early in the race.
He stayed on late and will get dropped a few pounds for todays run.
That will likely make him competitive – but whether I would follow him again, is a different matter…

I felt that Rons Dream ran flat, in the mares race at Ascot.
I knew that was a possibility, but I thought her worth the risk at the odds.
It was a shame really, as whilst I doubt she would have beaten Vroom Vroom Mag, a place was there for the taking, with other fancied horses all failing to fire…

There’s little that can be said about the run of Garde Fou, at Taunton.
I wondered why it had taken connections so long to put him over a fence – but watching his ponderous, almost nervous jumping, it’s now obvious why they hesitated.
He’ll be back over hurdles next time, I’ve little doubt about that.

Tara Road was disappointing at Ascot, for no obvious reason.
Admittedly it appeared that he would need to bounce back to form in order to feature - but I honestly didn’t see it that way and was disappointed with his no show.

Finally Island Confusion was another to disappoint by not really performing as I’d hoped.
Like Tara Road, there was no obvious reason for his under whelming effort.
What made it worse however, was that his race was won Ubaltique.
We were on him last time out at Market Rasen when he barely went a yard.
He looked a completely transformed horse today – and whilst it’s possible to point to the first time tongue tie, it was still a very difficult result to take….

A few quick words on the ‘mentions’:
Then obviously Johhnny Og was the hardest one to stomach.
Rather then getting into pace duel, he just look a lead from Capilla – and then sprinted clear of the field on the turn for home.
We were on him last time – and we should have been on him today, as well…
Later at Ascot, Lil Rockerfella ran almost exactly the race I expected in the handicap hurdle, to take third place.
He really is an admirable horse - and whilst he seems to have reached his ceiling over hurdles, he will be interesting when sent over fences. 
Un De Sceux was mightily impressive in the Clarence House chase and will clearly take the world of beating in the Queen Mother Champion chase. I suspect the only way he will lose, is if he falls…
At Haydock, the Bristol De Mai was very impressive in the novice chase.
He is likely to run in the JLT at the festival – and whilst he probably won’t be quite good enough, he’s likely to perform with credit.
Rayvin Black ran a huge race, as I expected against The New One – briefly looking as he might even win.
However, The New New One eventually got to him and proved to be his superior – though it certainly wasn’t the run of a horse with Champion hurdle pretensions…
Finally, Cloudy Too rolled back the years and took the Peter Marsh chase.
He was another one who I could have tipped - if the price had been just a bit bigger.

It can be a tough old game at times !

TVB.
 

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