Daily write-up - Jan 14th

Leicester has been lost to the weather today, leaving meetings at Catterick and Thurles…

My expectations weren’t particularly high: but there are a couple of decent races at Catterick – and a couple of decent horses running at Thurles.

I decided to issue two tips today – so let’s hope I’ve made the right call.

As I’m sure many of you will have noticed, I’ve managed to dodge quite a few winners, over the past week or so…

Mr Backster, Baie Des Iles, Racing Pulse, Nearly Nama’d and Wychwoods Brook could all have been tips – but non were.

I’ve been thinking about why I didn’t put any of them up and I reckon it’s down to a combination of things.
Firstly, as I’ve mentioned countless time before, issuing tips isn’t easy.

Most of the horses were running in relatively small race – which means weak/sensitive markets.

Secondly. I’ve been unrealistic in the prices I’ve been after.

I’ve been waiting for prices which I thought were achievable – rather than prices which I felt truly reflected the chances of the horses.

Clearly, I’m reading things very well at the moment: but bizarrely, when that happens, my ability to work out prices, seems to go a bit…

Take yesterday as an example:

I thought Wychwoods Brook, Easter Day or Top Wood, were the most likely winners of the race.
I could give half a chance to the 4 of the other runners.

What price does that mean would have been acceptable for Wychwoods Brook ?

Looked at in the terms described above, I would say around 5/1 – yet I was hoping for 10/1…

Anyway, the bottom line is, in my current run of form, I suggest you focus more on what I fancy, than the price I’m after !

Here’s the rationale for todays tip – plus a few other thoughts…

Catterick

1:50

The first thing that struck me about this race, is that there is likely to be a surfeit of pace…

3 of the first 4 horses in the betting (Mr Burbidge, Cloudy Joker and Grey Life) like to make the running – in fact, more than that, they need to make the running…

Clearly that can’t happen: and whilst I’m sure they will find a way round it, you have to think that the chances of a couple of them (maybe all 3) are likely to be compromised.

At Catterick on New Years day. Cloudy Joker jumped like a buck, when making all to beat Uno Valoroso.

The latter is 3lb better off  today, for a beating of just under 2 lengths – so  on the book, there should be precious little between the 2 horses.

However, with serious competition, it is very unlikely that Cloudy Joker will have an uncontested lead today. So his jumping might not be so good.

Furthermore, the extra pace in the race, should work in favour of Uno Valersos, who took a while to settle last time out.

In short, I would expect the race to be run today, in a way that will result in Uno Valeroso proving superior to Cloudy Joker…

I would also hope that the race won’t be run to suit either Mr Burbidge or Grey Life.

That said, even if it is, I don’t think either horse is any better handicapped than Uno Valeroso.

He was a progressive novice chaser last season, winning 3 of his 5 races and in the process going up the ratings from 80 to 113.

Furthermore, he arguable ran his best race of the campaign in defeat in his final outing…

It took a couple of runs this season for him to find his form – but his run at Catterick suggests that he is now ready to resume last seasons progress.

I can see holes in the 4 other runners – though I would expect Crafty Roberto to run well (Dickie Johnson certainly looks an interesting jockey booking).

It will help enormously if this race is run in the way I expect (with an abundance of pace); but even if it isn’t I think Uno Valeroso is well enough handicapped to give them all something to think about…

0.375pt win Uno Valeroso 6/1

3:25

It’s quite a long time since I’ve talked about the ‘subtle signs’ – and even longer since I tipped a horse primarily because of them – but that the case with Fair to Middling today…

In terms of the subtle signs, then it’s difficult to know where to begin !

He’s the only runner on the card for trainer, Peter Bowen – and the only ride of the day for his son Sean.
Furthermore, the horse has been sent on a near 520 mile round trip for the pleasure…

It is making its handicap debut today after 3 low key runs in novice hurdles (the last 2 being for the Bowen yard).

It also sports cheek pieces and wears a tongue tie for the first time.

Quite honestly, the only other things they could have done, was step it up in trip (but that would have gone against he cheek pieces angle – as pieces tend to make horses a bit keener).

In terms of form in the book, then he clearly has none !

However, I watched his penultimate run (his first for Bowen) very closely and I do think the horse has talent.

You can ignore his most recent run, as that will have been all about getting a handicap mark.

Clearly, there are risky tips – and then there is this one !

I would certainly like to see some money (and not ours !) to help support my theory.
That said, to an absolute minimum stake – at 16/1, I felt he was worth a speculative play !

0.125pt win Fair to Middling 16/1

The North Yorkshire Grand National (2:50) is the other race of major interest on the card…

I looked at this before the bookmakers had priced the race up and thought Nail M was the most likely winner.

That said, it is a very open looking race – and I would have wanted around 8/1 (and I am being realistic there !) to get involved.

Suffice to say, the current 4/1 holds absolutely no appeal (it really is too short).

In fact, it is very tempting to try and find something to take him on with…

I was initially tempted by Gorgehous Liege, in his first time cheek pieces.

He is very well handicapped – and if the ground were softer, I would be all over him (despite recent form figures of PPP !).

However, I suspect the ground isn’t going to be soft enough to play to his strengths…

The other 2 of interest, are Alto Des Mottes and West of the Edge.
Both can be backed at double figure prices - and are drifting. I think there could be a bit of value with them…

That said, despite it being a race that I really fancied getting involved with, I can’t see anything in the race that compels me to have a bet.

Thurles

There are a couple of graded races on the Thurles card – and whilst they have each attracted a high class runner, neither one looks like being much of a contest…

Don Cossack has his Gold Cup warm up in the Kinlock Brae at 2:10.

He fell when mounting his challenge in the King George last time – and this looks like an ideal confidence booster.
When not under pressure, his jumping is very sound – and I don’t expect him to be put under much pressure this afternoon !

It will still be good to watch a quality animal in action…

Bitofapuzzle may not be quite such a certainty in the following mares novice chase – but I would still expect her to be far too good for her rivals…

A grade 1 winner over hurdles at Fairyhouse last season, she looked a natural on her debut over fences at Exeter in December.

If she jumps as well again today, she will have too much class for her rivals…

Neither Don Cossack nor Bitofapuzzle are betting propositions but in the handicap hurlde at 1:40, O Ceallaigh, might be…

In truth, there is a lot of guesswork involved with him – and it is distinctly possible that he is too high in the handicap.

However, in a race where strong candidates are thin on the ground, I do like his profile and I also like the way he moved through the race, last time out.

I suspect the market will tell near the off, but if he gets backed, you might want to consider joining in…

Finally, I would be very hopeful that my favourite father/son combination, the Maguires, will have a winner in the Hunter chase that closes the card…

I suspect that Two Rockers will be different class to most of his rivals – but, in truth, it’s hard to know for sure…

Current Exchange, Luska Lad and Sydney Paget are all possible dangers – so whilst 7/4 is probably a fair price, it’s not one I could advise you to take.
I’ll still be cheering them home tho !!

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.