Newcastle became the latest meeting to be sunk by the
rain, leaving Kempton to provide the only NH action today…
And
for a Monday, it’s not a bad card, with 2 or 3 quite interesting
races.
I’ve
not issued any tips – but as much as anything, that’s because I want to steady
the ship a little.
I’m
not happy with the way things have gone over the past couple of weeks, so I
intend to be extra careful over any tips I do issue…
The
nearest I got to a tip today, was probably Barrakilla in the handicap chase at
3:45.
I
tipped him at last seasons Cheltenham festival – but he found the extended 3
mile trip too far that day.
His
2 runs this season have been over 2m2f and 2m – but that’s too short.
Todays trip of 2m4f is precisely what he needs – and I
can see no reason why he won’t run well.
The
issue is simply the opposition – and the price…
Opening Batsman and Stella Notion are two horses who
could cause him problems – if they are at their peak.
That
said, both have question marks over them – so it is tempting to take them
on.
However, a best price of 4/1 leaves very little margin
with Barrakilla – who is not completely guaranteed to run to form this
afternoon.
The
others don’t look quite good enough to me – so maybe I’m asking for too much
with the price.
I’ll let you decide on that !!
I’ll let you decide on that !!
The
other horse I am interested in today, is Albahar…
He
runs in the closing event on the card – and whilst a fair bit riskier than
Barrakilla, that is factored into the price.
In
truth, he’s not an easy one to get a handle on – but he ran well on the AW 12
days ago and his rating in that sphere of 78, suggests he could be very well
handicapped off a mark of 110 today…
The
big danger is obviously Debdebdeb, who makes her debut for Dan Skelton having
shown some promise for Donald McCain last season.
If Skelton can get some improvement out of her, then she will probably win today – but the betting seems to be treating that as a formality, and it’s not.
If Skelton can get some improvement out of her, then she will probably win today – but the betting seems to be treating that as a formality, and it’s not.
Certainly I would rather back Albahar EW at 16/1, than I
would back Debdebdeb to win at 6/4…
All
this said, it’s a race where it’s not easy to properly assess a number of the
runners – so any bet would be quite speculative.
The
final race of interest on the card, is the novice chase at 2:40.
Onenightinvienna is the right favourite, as he is the
most likely winner – but he’s not an odds on chance…
Certainly his form is a good few pounds better than his
rivals - but all 3 of them have scope for improvement.
Furthermore, this is a novice chase and Kempton take a
bit of jumping.
Onenightinvienna has run well at both Exeter and Cheltenham – but Kempton will present a different challenge.
Onenightinvienna has run well at both Exeter and Cheltenham – but Kempton will present a different challenge.
He
may well be up to it – but I’ll be watching to find out, rather than wagering on
him.
Best
of luck if you do choose to get involved today.
TVB.
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