Daily write-up - Jan 23rd

All 4 of today’s NH meeting have survived the weather and they race at Haydock, Ascot and Taunton in the UK – plus Navan in Ireland.

The rain has taken its toll on the ground however, and the going will range from heavy to bottomless – horses with a weak disposition would be better off staying at home !

With a relative glut of decent racing, I was optimistic that I would be able to find a few tips today.

Indeed, quite a few horses that I’ve been waiting for are running today.

However, rather annoyingly, quite a few of them are running in just a couple of races (one at Ascot and the other at Haydock).

That’s a bit frustrating – but it is just the way things fall sometimes…

Anyway, here are my thoughts on the day – along with the rationale for the tips that I have issued…

Ascot

1:15

This is the first of the 2 races today where I would liked to have tipped 3 or 4 of the runners (if they weren’t running against each other !).

Mountain King, Fairy Rath and Johnny Og are all on my list of horses to be interested in.

We would actually have been on Johnny Og at Newbury on Wednesday – if that meeting had taken place.

However, the difference between that race and todays, was that he looked likely to get an uncontested lead.

I think that is important for him – but today, he could well get into a pace duel with Capilla – and that tempers enthusiasm for him quite significantly.

What’s more, on the form book, he can’t beat Mountain king – though I am a little worried about that ones’ preference for decent ground (coupled with his short price).

I would also like to see better ground for Fairy Rath – though in truth, there is an element of guesswork regarding the state of the Ascot ground…

In additions to those 3, Cloudy Bob is on a very workable mark – and Bold Bachelor really could be anything…

In short, I just couldn’t find an angle into the race which I felt happy with – so unfortunately it has to be one to watch…

1:50

There is a chance that Vroom Vroom Mag will prove different class to her rivals in this ..

Unbeaten in Ireland, since coming over from France, she is clearly a high class mare.

However, she hasn’t actually beaten much, so far – and on ratings there is very little between her and a few of her rivals.

Furthermore, she is unproven over todays tips of almost 3 miles – so at 1/2, I felt she had to be taken on…

At the weights Desert Queen is actually the most likely winner of the race – based on official ratings.

She is also proven over today trip – which isn’t the case for all of the runners.

However, she is a very quirky mare – and you couldn’t be sure that she will run her race.

The Governess and Aurore D’Estruval are much more straightforward – but neither one is proven over todays distance – and is not difficult to envisage them struggling to get home, if Cannon Fodder chooses to make it a truly run test (and I think she might, as that would give her, her best chance of placing).

With doubts surrounding the 3 horses that follow Vroom Vroom Mag in the betting, it makes sense to look elsewhere for something to take her on with.
Step forward our old friend, Rons Dream.

She did us a massive turn at Cheltenham in November, and I am optimistic that she may be able to repeat the dose today.

For a start, on official ratings, she doesn’t have that much to make up with the market principals – but more important than that, unlike them she has no issues with either her temperament or her ability to stay a truly run 3 miles on soft ground.

She probably does lack a bit of class - but as she’s only 6 years old and seemingly on the improve - it is still possible that she could take her form to the next level.

My only slight concern with her, is that she has already been to the well a few times this season – and I just hope that today isn’t once too often.
If it’s not, then I would expect her to run a really big race – and hopefully be there or thereabouts..

0.25pt EW Rons Dream 40/1

2:25

This looks an impossibly tricky race to sort out, with a host of potential improvers up against some horse with very solid form.

I would expect Lil Rockerfella to run his usual game race – and could easily see him placing. However, it will be a bit surprising if he is able to give weight to a number of unexposed horses, who could literally be anything…

It is impossible to get a proper handle on the likes Theos Charm, Value at Risk, Zulu Oscar or Sugar Baron – and it would be no surprise if one of them proved itself much better than it has shown so far.

Theos Charm certainly looks like a horse that has been plotted to win a big handicap – but the market has latched on to that.

At the prices on offer, then Zulu Oscar is possibly the most interesting.

He won a decent race at Kempton over Christmas and although 10lb higher today, I still think there is a chance he will be able to follow up.

That said, this is very much a watching race for me…

3:00

I think this is the first true test that Un De Sceux has faced over fences – and it will be fascinating to see if he’s up to the job.

Sire De Grugy may not be quite as good as he once was – but he’s not far off his old peak – and probably as good a 2 mile chaser as there currently is in England.

If Un De Sceux can beat him, then the Champion chase should be his for the taking – the question is, will he be up to the task..?

The Ascot fences taking a bit of jumping – and I’m sure Sire De Grugy will harass Un De Sceux.

My suspicion is that Un De Sceux will prove up to it – but I wouldn’t be confident about that !

It is definitely a race to watch and learn from…

3:35

I’m a little disappointed that we’ve had to take such a low price on Tara Road in this – but despite his form figures, I think he’s the one to beat…

He actually opened up at 20/1 for the race yesterday – and even first thing this morning was 12/1.

However Reve De Sivola was still declared in the race at the time – and I wanted to wait until he had been taken out.
With hindsight, that maybe wasn’t the right thing to do (we would have been better to take a R4 on the price) – but most things are easier with hindsight !

In terms of the case for the horse: then despite recent form figures of ‘PP7PP’, I think he is one very much to be interested in.

Prior to those runs, he finished fourth to Royal Regatta at Newbury and is now 26lb better off for a 10 length beating.
He was little disappointing that day as well – and on his previous run, had hacked up at Ffos Las off a mark of 117 – just 6lb lower than he races from today…

Obviously things haven’t gone well since then – but there were signs that they were about to come right last time, when he was still travelling nicely at Aintree, before being badly hampered by a faller.

That run took place during November – and Rebecca Curtis was badly out of form then – that’s not the case now !

In short, whilst he comes with risks, I think That Tara Road is the one to beat in this, over an ideal trip, on ground he handles – and with a very workable handicap mark !

0.25pt win Tara Road 9/1

Haydock

1:00

This is the other race, where I would have been interested in 4 or 5 of the runners – if they weren’t competing against each other…

Horizontal Speed, Shades of Midnight, Barafundle, Shotovodka and Bold Sir Brian are all on my list of horses to be interested in – but ideally not when running against each other !
I guess that’s part of the issue at this time of year. All of the abandonments, mean that the same horses are forced to chase the same prizes..

In truth, there would be a slight question mark in my mind over all 5 of the horses:

Horizontal Speed had a very tough race last time out – and has to carry top weight in desperate ground today.

Shades of Midnight hasn’t been out for over 2 months, and if he’s lacking anything in fitness, it will be exposed today.

The other 3 are all potentially regressive - but equally have all shown something which could make me interested in them.

Barafundle raced with bags of enthusiasm last time – and is fairly handicapped.
Bold Sir Brian didn’t show much last time – but is spectacularly well handicapped if he does bounce back to form.

Shotovodka is possibly the most interesting of them all, in first time blinkers.

He ran a cracker on his seasonal debut – and whilst he hasn’t run as well on his 2 subsequent runs, he is now back to that mark and is just the type to respond to fitting of different head gear.

At odds of 12/1, I’ve decided that Shotovodka is worth a small play

0.25pt win Shotovodka 12/1

1:30

Based purely on form, Amore Alato is a crazy price in this.

If he hadn’t unseated at the last, he would have won a grade 2 chase at Ascot last time – and that is form which all of todays rivals would struggle to match.
However, there is a big question mark over his ability to cope with todays desperate conditions – and that isn’t the case for his rivals.
Certainly Otago Trail revels in such conditions - and that is the main reason why he is favourite.

That said, I don’t expect there to be a lot between him and fellow market principal, Bristol De Mai.

He doesn’t need heavy going – but can handle it and is a very decent performer.

The other 2 in the race, Borus Brook and Zamdy Man, both have a bit to prove – but should relish the ground.

Whilst Otago Trail might not be the best horse in the race, I suspect that he will be the one who enjoys the conditions the most – and I think that it likely to see him home in front.

2:40

I think The New One looks vulnerable in this…

In fact, I got quite close to Tipping Rayvin Black (probably EW) against him.

Certainly, The New One won’t relish today’s desperate ground –whilst Rayvin Balck and Melodic Rendezvous, will.

Those 2 met at Sandown a the beginning of the month – and Rayvin Black came out on top.

That was in a handicap and today it’s a conditions race – and Melodic Rendezvous is a fair bit better off at the weights.
However, he is also 10 – whereas Rayvin Black is only 7 – and possibly still improving.

The other thing I like about Rayvin Black, is that as the only front runner in the race, he should get to dictate his own fractions.

A lot will come down to whether Thomas Garner can get that right – because if he can, I think he could cause a surprise.

Fou et Sage is the potential fly in the ointment – and I’m not surprised that Pricewise tipped him.

If Rayvin Black had been available at a couple of points bigger – or if Oliver Sherwood had employed a senior jockey instead of Garner(who can’t claim his allowance), I would have taken the plunge.

It really was that close…

3:15

I can’t see much of an angle into this race…

Reve De Sivola is the favourite – and whilst he is thrown in on hurdles form, he was ponderous over fences, even when he was at his peak (and I can’t see why that would have improved with age).

Pricing him up, is nearly impossible – but the layers are taking no chances putting him in at 4/1.

Fingal Bay and Virak look the 2 with least question marks again them – but they offer limited value at 5/1.

Cloudy Too could have been interesting, on heavy ground, off a very fair handicap mark – but again, there is limited value at 7/1.

That said, you have to get really creative if you are going to find the winner outside of the top 4 in the betting.

Seventh Sky looks handicapped to the hilt: and whilst there is scope in Algernon Pazhams mark, there much be a chance that two recent falls will have left their mark…

If forced to side with one, it would probably be Cloudy Too – but there is too much risk involved for the price on offer, to make him an official selection.

3:50

The betting suggests that this is a pretty open race, and whilst I wouldn’t disagree with that, I think Island Confusion is the most likely winner – and he therefore represents a bit of value at 9/2…

With only 8 runs under rules, he is relatively unexposed – and I’m sure he has plenty of scope for improvement.

His last 2 runs have been over fences – the first, last year and the second, last month.

That was at Newcastle and he travelled very nicely that day, and looked likely to win jumping the last but was caught close home by Gold Opera.

Island Confusion was given a pretty tender ride that day, which was maybe understandable as he was making his seasonal debut on ground that was riding pretty heavy.

I would hope that he will come on for it – and his 2 previous runs on heavy suggest that the ground won’t be an issue for him.

The first of those was on his rules debut in a bumper at Ayr.
He beat the now 148 rated Fine Rightly that day – and whilst he was receiving weight and a lot of water has gone under the bridge since then – it does suggest that he could be very well handicapped with a mark of 119.

Clearly this isn’t a race where you can be adamant  - but I have a pretty decent feel for most of his rivals and non of them worry me unduly.

I also like the fact that he is one of only 2 rides on the card that Peter Buchanan has for Lucinda Russell.

Let’s hope he can make it pay !

0.375pt win Island Confusion 9/2

Taunton

2:45

It possibly says something about me, but of all the races today, this is the one I was most drawn to !

I actually tipped the winner of this race last year – and I’m hopeful that Garde Fou will be able to get me the double, this time around…

I actually spent as long looking through this race as I did any other - and bizarrely he was the last horse that I looked at.
In fact, I’d almost given up the race by the time I checked Garde Fou.

I was hoping to find one that had been ‘hiding its light behind a bushel’ – but if there is one in the race who’s been doing that, it’s been doing it very effectively !

I came to the conclusion that there’s not – and instead I’ve opted for the ‘class’ horse in the race.
Garde Fou has been operating (over hurdles) in a higher grade than he faces today – and has actually won over hurdles, from a mark just a pound lower.

In fact, he didn’t just win off a pound lower mark, he absolutely hacked up – and as a result his rating shot up from 104 to 118.

Whilst he showed himself capable of being competitive off that kind of mark – he hasn’t been able to win from it and a few recent below par runs have seen it fall back to 105.

The switch to fences today, is an interesting move.

Garde Fou is now 10 years old and you really would have expected him to run over fences in the UK, before now.

He has actually run once over fences in Ireland – on his debut under rules – and 4 times in PTPs.
He fell on two of those occasions – and I suspect that’s why it has been so long returning to them.

Hopefully he has been well schooled for today – because I do think that if he can jump round cleanly, there isn’t a lot in the race for him to beat…

0.25pt win Garde Fou 14/1 

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.