Daily write-up - Jan 16th

Somewhat surprisingly, all 3 scheduled meetings have survived the weather today, and they race at Warwick and Wetherby in the UK- plus Naas in Ireland.

I often go on about how hard it is to issue tips – but issuing the tips for today, took things to a new level !

Trying to find a point in time, when I could issue the tips I wanted - and give you all half a chance of getting on at a reasonable price, was nearly impossible.

Maybe it was just coincidence and I hit a few horses which others were keen on – I don’t know.

All I do know is that the price of every tip, was under pressure before I issued it – meaning that a crash was inevitable after I’d issued it. 

In truth, I can’t see a way round it – other than not issuing tips and just relying on the write-up…

As you know, I’m moving more in that direction anyway – and certainly anyone who didn’t get on the tips early, should consider carefully before following them at much reduced prices.

Hopefully the write-up will provide you with some context and help you decide what prices still represent ‘value’…

Warwick

1:15

When I first looked at this race yesterday afternoon, I thought that Laser Hawk was likely to be installed favourite, at around 7/2 or 4/1.

What went through my mind, was whether I would be prepared to tip him at that price – in what is quite a tricky race.

Ofcourse, those thoughts became irrelevant when Ladbrokes priced him up at 9/1 !

And even after the initial adjustment, he was still a 6/1 shot – which was plainly much too big…

Now I should say at this point, that there is some speculation involved with him…

He has only run 4 times under rules – and just once over fences, so getting a proper handle on him isn’t easy.

Furthermore, connections have suggested that he is poorly handicapped – so there is always a chance they will try to demonstrate that, by getting him well beaten !

In fairness, I can understand where they are coming from.

A rating of 132 does seem high – but I still have the feeling he is a fair bit better than that…

It is his defeat of Beast of Burden at Newbury last season that has got him his lofty rating.

The argument is that the second didn’t run to form.

In fairness to the handicapper, he seems to buy into that, as Beast of Burden is rated 143 – so a 3 length defeat of him should see Laser Hawk rated nearer to 150, than 130 !

On his sole outing over fences, at Newbury in November, Laser Hawk ran third to the very promising Arzal.

He travelled with real menace that day, but seemed in need of the outing – appearing to blow up before running on late.

I would expect that run to have brought him on – and he should be cherry ripe today.

To my mind, this is mainly about whether connections want to win today.

I’m sure they are torn between picking up £6.5K first prize – and getting a few pounds of his rating, thereby enabling him to potentially have a crack at a bigger pot, from a lower rating.

The problem they face however, is that Laser Hawk is already 9 years old – and he has a marked preference for soft ground.

They won’t get many opportunities to go pot hunting with him.

Hopefully they were responsible for the very early money yesterday – if that is the case, I think he is very much the one to beat today…

In terms of his rivals, then I would be most fearful of Morning Reggie.

He’s a horse I’ve been watching for quite a while and he has the talent to win a race such as this.

However, his jumping is suspect, and despite a course win to his name, that would be a worry.

The other one of interest, at a price, is Walk in the Park.

He ran really well on his seasonal and stable debut at Lingfield , before subsequently disappointing at Chepstow over a longer trip.

He is dropped back in distance today and I could see him running much better as a consequence.

Both are worth considering for savers - but the main bet has to be Laser Hawk (provided you got a price !).

0.375pt win Laser Hawk 6/1

3:00

There is a lot of guesswork involved in this race…

Born Survivor has been put in a very short priced favourite – but that is purely on reputation and the fact his trainer, Dan Skelton, was responsible for the winner of last years race.

He may well be up to the job today – but 9/4 is very short about a horse who has only won a novice hurdle…

Willie Mullins is responsible for the next 2 in the betting – but they strike me as runner to ‘test the water’.

They are clearly not novices from his top draw – and I suspect their main purpose is to give him a feel for the strength of opposition, on the other side of the Irish sea…

In truth, you could make a case of sorts for most of the runners, but the one I’ve elected to support, is Definite Outcome.

The fact that he was pitched into graded company for his hurdling debut in October, suggests he is well thought of – and he ran with great promise in that race, to finish third.

He then won a weak novice hurdle at Aintree – but struggled a bit, to justify odds of 8/13.

On that performance, alone, his chances today aren’t great – but it should be borne in mind, that the Rebecca Curtis stable was badly out of form in November – and as we know, that’s not the case now…

In short, Definite Outcome appears to be a well regarded horse, from a good stable, who looks primed to run his best race so far.

Whether that will be good enough to win, is a different matter – but I think he’s worth a small risk to find out.

0.25pt win Definite Outcome 12/1

3:35

As you would expect, The Classic Chase has drawn a very competitive field and I’ve chosen to split stakes between a couple of them…

The first of those is De Kerry Man.

He was in the process of running a huge race last time out, when he unshipped his rider after jumping the third last at Cheltenham on New Years day…

It was too far out to be adamant, but I felt that he looked like the winner that day.

He was certainly still travelling very nicely when the incident occurred – whereas most of this rivals were coming under pressure.

In a way, the unseat maybe wasn’t a bad thing (certainly from the perspective of todays race).

It means that he was wasn’t subjected to a hard race – and he didn’t get the weight rise which would have happened if he had come home in front.

His performance also suggested that he has a fair chance of staying todays marathon trip.

He has not won over further than 2m5f previously – but that race was over 3m2f and he certainly wasn’t stopping as he approached the 3 mile mark…

He won over at Warwick last season – and his run style (likes to race prominently) is certainly well suited to the demands of the course.

As a young, progressive stayer, with the minimum weight on his back, he looks to have a very good chance.

The other one I want on side, is Foxbridge…

We were on him first time out this season, when he ran a cracker at the Cheltenham Paddy Power meeting when finishing second.

A couple of poor jumps probably cost him that day, but it was still a good performance.

On his only subsequent run, he finished fourth at Kempton over Christmas.

I wasn’t convinced that the Kempton track would suit him – but he still ran on well, over a trip that is probably now a minimum for him.

He’s up in distance today - and the much softer ground will also help.

Off a mark just 2lb higher than at Cheltenham, I think he is capable of going close.

It is possible to give chances to quite a few of the others, including Sego Success, Algernon Pazham and Rigadin De Beauchene.

However the one I fear most, is Houblon Des Obeaux.

He is potentially spectacularly well handicapped – and if he can rediscover his old form on todays heavy ground, he is very much the one to beat.

0.25pt win De Kerry Man 12/1

0.25pt win Foxbridge 12/1

There is an interesting novice chase at 1:50, which is likely to go the way of Black Hercules.

That said, the opposition isn’t poor – so if his jumping doesn’t cut mustard on this tricky course, he could well be found out.

Bally Beaufort could well get an uncontested lead – and whilst he really shouldn’t be good enough, if gets into a rhythm up front, the others might find him a tricky one to pass.

Pobbles Bay is the one that interests me most in the Pertemps qualifier at 2:25 – however, I’m a little fearful that he may be a Ffos Las specialist…

There is a train of thought that Ffos Las form doesn’t translate to elsewhere and he is only proven at that track.

I might be prepared to take a risk at a bigger price - or in a weaker race.
However, he is just 7/1 and dangers abound – so it will have to be a watching brief…

Wetherby

2:05

This is a very open race, in which I could understand someone fancying any of the runners.

However, I’m optimistic that Upsilon Bleu is the one to be on…

He won a very similar race, over course and distance, last Christmas (when beating French Opera - whom I’d tipped !).

The winning margin was less than a length that day, but Upsilon Bleu was value for a fair bit more.
He cruised into the lead – but then idled when he hit the front.

He was raised 7lb for that win – but a few slightly under par efforts mean that he runs from a mark just 1lb higher today.

His 2 runs this season should have blown away the cobwebs, so I expect him to be spot on for this afternoon.

As I suggested, a case can be made for most of his rivals…

Sir Valentino is much improved this season – but as a result, does now look to be on a high enough mark.

Gardefort is potentially interesting – but he has performed poorly twice, since winning well at Ludlow. If he recaptures his Ludlow form he will be a big danger – but he is a short enough price, considering the doubt.
Whispering Harry ran really well on his seasonal debut when touched off at Newbury  - but fell early next time at Haydock. His stable isn’t in such good form now, either…

Yorkist is dropping down the handicap – but that is because he has been disappointing on his 3 runs this season. He could bounce back to form – but a lot has to be taken on trust.
Of them all, Mwaleshi is probably the one I fear most.

He has also been out of form, but a return to heavy ground and 2 miles could see him running much better.

That said, what I hope it does, is see him set up the race for Upsilon Bleu – as he should provide some decent pace for him to track !

That’s the theory, anyway !!

0.375pt win Upsilon Bleu 9/2

You won’t be too surprised to hear that I considered tipping Vendor in the following handicap hurdle (2:40).

He did us a massive turn last time out – and even off an 8lb higher mark today, I think he has a definite chance.

However, todays race is much tougher than the one he won last time (accepting he absolutely dotted up !).

There are 3 or 4 potentially very progressive horses up against him – and whilst I doubt they will all improve past him, one or two of them might…

Maxie T looks the most likely one to me – though Master Jake, Divine Port and One for Harry are all potential dangers…

If the odds were there, I might take a small risk on Vendor – but 5/1 is a bit too tight for a risk…

Azert De Coeur is of some interest in the handicap chase at 3:15 – but again, there is a lot of guesswork involved…

He’s only had 3 runs in the UK and showed by far the most, last time out at Ludlow.
That said, it’s still not easy to get a handle on him, so whilst he may be well handicapped – you really couldn’t be sure.

In fairness, the opposition isn’t up to much, so he won’t have to be a world beater to win.

That said, his price isn’t up to much either (4/1), so on balance, I’m happy to just watch…

Naas

There’s not too much to get excited about at Naas (sorry, Decky !) – though I did briefly consider a tip…

In the handicap hurdle at 3:05, I am quite interested in Cest Notre Gris.

He ran really well at Leopardstown over Christmas - and off a pound lower mark, I would expect him to do the same today.
The trouble is, he faces a number of potentially interesting rivals: Lake Field, Tangled Web, Joshua Tree and Mad Brian, to name but 4…

I wouldn’t expect them all to run up to their potential – but I would expect one or two of them to do so.

Consequentially, Cest Notre Gris would have to be an EW tip – and with 16 runners, that’s fraught with danger…
If all 16 go to post - and 12/1 is available, he is definitely worth a small interest.

In the following handicap chase, I like the look of Mount Brandon, with Barry Geraghty on board.

He is very closely handicapped with market rival, Rolling Rocket, but I would hope that Geraghty in the saddle will make the difference.

That said there is no margin in a price of 7/2, with 12 rivals to beat (including Rolling Rocket).

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.