Daily write-up - Jan 21st

The abandonment of Ludlow, means that there is NH racing at just Wincanton and Gowran Park this afternoon…

For a change, it was the ‘right’ meeting that got abandoned today !

Yesterday, my main fancies were running at Newbury, but it was lost to the weather.
It would have been very irritating if Wincanton had gone the same way today – but fortunately it didn’t…

Instead it was Ludlow that succumbed to the frost – and whilst that is a shame, there was nothing on the card that I particularly fancied.

I fancied a few at Wincanton – though the same old issue of how to tip them reared its head again his morning.

I’m fast coming to the conclusion that early morning tipping just can’t happen:

I tipped a 20/1 shot at 11:00 yesterday – and it stayed a 20/1 shot.
I tipped a 14/1 shot at 8:30 this morning – and it was 10/1 within 5 minutes…

That’s a near 30% reduction in the ‘edge’ on the bet.

If you did manage to get the 14/1, then your accounts are at increased risk of closure.

In short, I just don’t think it is sustainable…

The model for the main service needs to change.

I know that won’t please you all – but I feel that I’ve little choice in the matter.

If I don’t, then the service is in danger of just becoming a joke: as I either quote unachievable prices – or tip horses simply because I think everyone can get on.

Neither of those scenarios will have a happy ending…

I intend to move towards producing the write-up – and then simply tipping late, if there is anything suitable to tip.

I guess this will see less tips – and probably less profitability – but at least it should be achievable and sustainable.

Furthermore, you will still have the write-up, which you can use to find your own bets, as many of you do now (including all of the guys on the Info service).

Anyway, my expectation is that I will gradually move in that direction for the remainder of this season – but implement it properly, next season.

With regard to todays tips: then here is the rationale, plus a few other thoughts…

Wincanton

2:45

There is a really competitive field assembled for the Somerset National, which must have pleased the course executive no end…

Dawson City has been installed a short priced favourite on the back of an unlucky unseat last time out at Chepstow and running off the same mark today, he must have a good chance.

However, I don’t really see him as a 3/1 shot, which suggests there should be value elsewhere…

Our old friend Big Society could be interesting – if he feels inclined to race today.

More than that, the Wincanton fences take a bit of jumping – and he isn’t the slickest over obstacles.

If everything fell right, he could win – but he is a risky proposition.
Based on his first time out run over this course, then Royal Palladium is the one to beat.

In fact, if he hadn’t disappointed in his 2 subsequent runs, he would almost certainly be favourite today.

If you are of a generous disposition, then it is possible to make excuses for both of the runs. The first came just a fortnight after his seasonal debut – and he might still have been feeling the effects of that run; whilst he second was in the heavy at Ffos Las – and plenty of horses can’t handle that.

It’s over 5 weeks since he last ran – and if his ‘mini break’ has freshened him up, he could go very well today.

I did consider tipping him – and he’s certainly potential saver material – but instead I’ve opted for Krackatoa King…

Now there is no denying he’s a risky one – as today will be only his second outing over fences.
However, he’s horse who has been crying out for both fences and a test of stamina – and he gets both today.

Based on his hurdle form, he is also very fairly handicapped.

On his final run last season, he won at Newbury off a mark of 116 and he gets to run off mark of 121 today.

Krackatoa King is more about potential than he is about form in the book.

He’s a giant of a horse – who just keep on galloping – so the greater the stamina test, the better.

Clearly his ability to jump round is a worry – thought mainly because it is unproven.

We also have to hope that he is fit enough to do himself justice, as he’s not run for over 2 months.
However, I think those concerns are factored in to the price – and the fitting of first time blinkers today, makes me think that connections are going for it.

Certainly if that is the case, and his jumping holds up, then I think he can go very close.

0.25pt win Krackatoa King 14/1

3:20

Mr Fitzroy did us a big favour last time out, when taking a decent prize a Sandown at the beginning of this month.

He won very nicely that day – and has a chance of following up today – though a 12lb rise in the weights will make things much tougher for him.

Exitas also ran in the Sandown race and whilst he ultimately finished well beaten – he moved with real menace round the home turn.

That was his second run back over hurdles after 3 goes over fences.

They came to very little so it is understandable that connections reverted to the smaller obstacles.

He certainly looked a horse going places over hurdles last season, when he followed up 3 clear cut wins, with a very good sixth place in the Greatwood hurdle at the Cheltenham November meeting.
That run was off a mark 3lb higher than he runs off today – and against much stronger opposition.

If Exitas can build on his last run at Sandown, then I think he has a very decent chance today.

The one to beat would appear to be the Paul Nichols trained novice, All Set to Go, who is making his handicap debut today.

Following a comfortable win at Southwell, he ran fourth in a class 1 novice contest at Ascot.
He was no match for Yanworth that day – but that one is well fancied for the novice events at the Cheltenham festival.

The handicapper has had to guess at a mark for All Set to Go – and 126 doesn’t look overly harsh.
That said, I suspect the betting near the off will tell us whether connections think he is well handicapped.

If he is, then he will likely win – if he’s not, then I think Exitas has every chance.

0.25pt win Exitas 16/1

3:55

If you could be sure that Sidbury Hill would jump round cleanly, then I think he would be a very good bet in this…

However, his jumping is a big concern – mainly because it has let him down on his only two tries over fences.

They have both been this season: firstly at Newbury, where he was still travelling very nicely when making a mess of the cross fence: and then at Taunton, when he came down at the second last (though he was beaten at the time).

In truth, the Taunton run is a little bit of a worry, because having been sent off favourite that day, he was disappointing.

However that race was only 2 weeks after the Newbury one, so maybe he hadn’t fully recovered.

Certainly, based on the Newbury run, he has every chance today, in a lower class race – and off a mark 3lb lower.

He also has an excellent chance, based on his exploits over hurdles last term.

His defeat of the now 133 rated Singlefarmpayment, makes him look well handicapped – and his run in the National Hunt novices final at Sandown, was much better form than any of today rivals have achieved.

That’s the other big attraction with Sidbury Hill today – his rivals don’t look that good.

Venetias, John Louis is favourite - but he will have his work cut out following up his last time out win from a 10lb higher mark; whilst second favourite, Merchant of Milan will also do well to overcome a significant weight rise for a narrow margin win.

At a price, I could be half interested in Abagail Lynch – but I’m happy enough to put my trust in Sidbury Hill.

0.375pt win Sidbury Hill 7/1

There may be 16 runners in the opening handicap hurdle – but I’m not surprised to see Present Man a 6/4 favourite.

For a start, he’s potentially progressive novice, trainer by Paul Nichols, taking on mainly exposed handicappers – but more than that, there is an argument that he is well handicapped off a mark of just 116.

He should certainly take the bating – but you need some luck in running in a 16 runner handicap – and such a short price doesn’t leave a lot of room for that…

Zephyros Blue is even less exposed, and is a feasible alternative at 8/1 for the upwardly mobile Harry Whittington stable…

I really wanted to tip Renard in the handicap chase at 2:10 – but I can’t…

He was 8/1 last night – and 7/1 early this morning.
However, by 8:30, he was a tight 6/1 – and there is minimal margin in that…

Clearly he is handicapped to win and has near perfect conditions – however, there’s a chance he is in decline and he faces some very tough opposition.

I could give 7 of the field a decent chance of winning (and not completely dismiss the other 2) – and that’s just too competitive to going chasing a price…

In addition to Renard, Gores Island and Ballinvarrig are also very well handicapped horses; whilst Wuff and Quite by Chance are potential improvers…

Alder Mairi is in the form of her life (and not badly handicapped): whilst Toowoomba could bounce back to form in his first time tongue tie.

All in all, just to difficult to be adamant about.

If anyone managed to get a price on Renard, then well done. At the odds on offer now, then 10/1 on Alder Mairi is too big.

On balance though – with the odds available when I wanted to tip – it had to be a watching race…

Gowran Park

It’s Thystes day at Gowran – one of the favourite days of the season for TVB followers (thanks to our old friend, Jadanli !).

This seasons renewal looks a high class affair.

Between them, Gordon Elliot and Willie Mullin are responsible for 10 of the runners – and it is a distinct possibility that one of them will be taking home the prize.

That said, Mouse Morris has a couple of well fancied runners – in the shape in the shape of Rule the World and Folsom Blue – and there are a few others in with half a chance…

The nearest I got to tipping anything, was Malt Gem.

He’s trained by Mary Louise Hallahan – and, coincidently, ridden by Andy Lynch (Jadanlis jockey).
I certainly could see the horse going well – but I’m not sure he has the class (or possibly the stamina) to cause an upset.

Buckers Bridge is another one I looked at - but there is quite a lot of guesswork involved with him.

Unfortunately, I suspect that the winner will come form the top of the market:

Mala Beach, Ucello Conti, Ballycasey, Folsom Blue or Rule the World.

I don’t know which one – but you can’t beat 10/1 on any of them – so it has to be a watching race for me…

The other big race on the card, is the Galmoy hurdle at 2:00.

On official ratings, At Fishers Cross in the one to beat – but the market (and Rebecca Curtis) is saying that he will need to the run…

It is saying similar of Briar Hill – meaning that Martello Tower and Alpha Des Obeaux are the two to concentrate on.
The latter is rated 3lb superior to the former – yet receives 7lb today.
That probably explains why he is 6/4 fav and Martello Tower 3/1.

It’s not really a race which I can see an angle into – therefore another one to watch…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.