Daily write-up - Jan 28th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: Fakenham and Warwick in the UK – plus a second day at Thurles, in Ireland…

I guess the big talking point today, is the price crash of the tip, Beforeall…

Those of you with decent memories, will recall that I tipped the same horse at Sandown last season – and exactly the same thing happened.

He was 28/1 when I issued the tip that day – and ended up going off at 8/1 (and running very well).

I do think that we triggered the run on the horse today – but I don’t think we were responsible for the almighty crash that took place.

My feeling is that without the involvement of others his price would have settled at around 10 or 11/1.

The fact it has fallen so low (5/1 as I write this), leads me to believe that I am not the only one who fancies it today – which has to be considered a good thing.

Ofcourse, it doesn’t mean it will win – but it does mean that it is likely to be trying its level best to do so.

Here’s the rationale for my fancying it – and a few other thoughts on the day…

Fakenham

2:30

I always feel that it’s a big advantage to front run at Fakenham…

It’s a very sharp track and if a horse can grab the rail, it can control things from the front.

There are 2 potential front runners in this race: Fruity O Rooney and Beforeall…

Fruity O Rooney has been in great form recently – and I was quite tempted by him.

An ultra game win at Ascot in November, was followed by a creditable run at Lingfield last month.

From a handicapping perspective, he is still very well weighted on a mark of 124 – but he’s 13 now and probably vulnerable to younger legs…

Beforeall is only 8 and therefore coming to his peak.

He too is well handicapped, as he is running today off a mark of 124 – 1lb lower than the mark he was last successful from.

That was nearly 2 years ago – but at the time, he looked a chaser going places…

Things didn’t really work out that way last season – but he still managed to run one very good race.

That was at Sandown, almost exactly a year ago.

He ran in a class 2 race that day and finished a highly creditable third to Le Reve.

If he can recapture that form today, I think he will win.

The risk with him, is that he disappointed on his 2 subsequent outings last season – and has not run this season.

We therefore have to take his fitness on trust. That said, he has run well fresh in the past – and the fitting of a first time tongue tie, suggests to me that connections plan to give it a good shot.

The trip and ground should be absolutely fine for him today – so if he is ready to go, then I would expect him to run a very big race.

Of the 3 favourites, then Amidon is the one I fear the most: whilst from a pure handicapping perspective, Bucking the Trend could be a danger (he beat Beforeall a couple of seasons ago and is a little better off at the weights today).

All this said, it was always Beforeall that I wanted to side with – so long as his strength in the market is maintained to the off…

0.25pt win Beforeall 14/1

Warwick

There are a couple of decent races on the Warwick card.

I half considered getting involved with both of them – but just didn’t feel strongly enough about any of the runners (and couldn’t see sufficient value to warrant a speculative play).

In the handicap chase at 2:20, my ‘short’ list consisted of 5:

Willoughby Hedge, Castarnie, Bear Rails, As De Fer and Itoldyou.

Of the 5, then it was Castarnie and As De Fer that I considered tipping -however I didn’t feel there was massive value in their early prices.

That said, Castarnie has been backed from 8/1 into 5/1; whilst As De Fer has been backed form 10/1 into 8/1, so maybe I was wrong !

The market will be driven by Willoughby Hedge, who is probably too short now, at 5/2. As he drifts, others will inevitably shorten…

If you want to take a risk in the race, then Itoldyou is the one.

He has run poorly on his 2 outings this season - but as a result is now on a mark 2lb below his last winning mark (and that is excluding Thomas Garners 3lb claim)

Cheek pieces have been applied to try and liven him up and if they have the desired effect, he is more than capable of outrunning his 33/1 price.

That said, it’s a race where I couldn’t conclusively rule anything out – and therefore one where I am disinclined to get heavily involved…

The handicap hurdle at 2:55 is another race where a fair few can be given a chance…

It is at least possible to eliminate a few from calculations for this race – but unfortunately, as they are the outsiders, it doesn’t help that much…

The one I fancy most in the race, is Knight of the Realm – but he’s managed to make his way to favouritism this morning (having been 9/1 last night).

I feel that he has the least question marks against him – though I wouldn’t be too surprised to see something beat him.

I did wonder if that might be Vice et Vertu – and if money came for him, I would definitely take notice.

However, a poor run by him today will likely see his handicap rating drop by 5lbs – and connections will probably find that too tempting…

The others of interest all sit close to the head of the betting – so it’s difficult to find an angle with them.

In summary, Knight of the Realm has least question marks against him – but odds of 6/1 represent minimal value in an open race.

Thurles

Todays card at Thurles looks a little less fraught with danger than yesterdays – but betting opportunities are still very thin on the ground…

The highlight of the card is the conditions chase at 2:15.

I would expect this to be taken by Smashing, even though his absence since November is a little concerning.

That said, he’s a horse who goes well fresh, so I doubt it will be a major negative.

What is a major negative however, is his price of 11/8. It’s difficult to argue with – but it wouldn’t draw me in.

Of more interest is the 4/1 on offer about Nearly Nama’d.

He’s stepping up in grade today – but might be up to the job.

That said, with it impossible to rule out Avant Tout, it is probably just a watching race…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.