There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: Kempton,
Newcastle and Chepstow in the UK – plus Navan in Ireland.
The
Navan meeting doesn’t have many treasures, but all 3 UK meetings put on some
interesting races.
Realistically, this is the last day on which horses with
Cheltenham aspirations, are likely to run.
In
truth, it is probably a bit close to the festival – but for one or two, needs
must…
From
a tipping perspective, this has turned into the biggest day of the month, by
some margin.
I’ve
issued tips in 6 races – and could easily have tipped in a few more.
I
guess the return of some reasonable ground, coupled with some decent horses, has
fired me back into action !
I’d
like to say that some of the tips were racing certainties - but sadly that’s not
the case.
That said, I do think they all have a decent chance - and represent
a bit of value – so fingers crossed that one or two of them can come home in
front.
We’ve not had much luck this week – hopefully that will change
soon.
Either way, today is likely to be the defining day for
the month – fingers crossed !!
Here
are my thoughts on the main races…
Kempton
2:35: This is a very weak looking renewal of the
Grade 2 Pendil chase.
You
would normally expect to see horses with genuine graded pretensions competing
(even if they didn’t subsequently reach that level) – but that’s not the case
today.
All
5 runners are pretty much established as handicappers – but despite that, one of
them has to win.
On
official ratings, Mon Successor and The Saint James are the most likely - and of
the two, I would prefer the former.
He
is trained by Paul Nichols, who has a tremendous record in the race – and the
horse also has further scope for improvement.
He
was disappointing last time – but it was the last one of a number of hard races
– and it was on very heavy ground.
I think he can bounce back to form this
afternoon.
The
other one of interest, is Twelve Roses. He was very impressive on his chasing
debut – but has disappointed on his 2 most recent runs.
He’s been given a 3
month break – and if he were to bounce back today, he could go close.
The
market will likely advise on his chance.
3:35: Initially, I was very keen on Theatre Guide
in this – but my enthusiasm for him has tempered a little…
I
still think he’s got a good chance - but the more I look at the race, the more
dangers I see (perhaps I should stop looking !).
The
main reason I fancy him, is because of his run in this yeas Hennessy.
He
finished second in that race – well beaten by Smad Place – but Smad Place
clearly had a ton in hand of his mark that day, so nothing was ever going to get
near him.
If
you take him out of the race, then Theatre Guide was a good winner (considering
he made a really bad mistake just after half way) – and he gets to run off
exactly the same mark this afternoon.
He
will have no issue with trip, track or ground – and I particularly like the fact
that Paddy Brennan is riding him, even though Tom George has a runner in the
race, who looks to have half a chance.
I’ll
be surprised (and disappointed) if Theatre Guide doesn’t run a very big race –
I’m just a little concerned that there might be one or two too good for
him…
Top
of the list of horses who might beat him, is Thomas Brown.
He’s
still only a novice (so comes with risks) – but he has plenty of potential
upside (and could be well handicapped).
Unfortunately, the market is wise to him and 7/1 seems
about the right price…
At a
bigger price, I think Viva Steve has a chance.
He ran a big race over course
and distance during the Christmas period, when runner up to The Last Samurai.
He
disappointed last time out at Cheltenham - but the undulating track and heavy
ground didn’t appear to suit him. I think that run can be ignored
He
is effectively 6lb higher today than he was at Christmas – but he is an
improving sort and maybe capable of defying that rise.
I
think he is worth having on side, at a decent price.
The
others who worry me are Rocky Creek, Champagne West, Ziga Boy, Ruben Cotter, Roc
D’Apsis and Ballykhan.
Water tight case can’t be made for any of them – but all
are capable of running big races.
Clearly, quite a tough race to sort out – but hopefully
Theatre Guide and Viva Steve will give us a good run for our money.
4:10: I really don’t think this race is as
competitive as the numbers suggest and I’ll be surprised if the winner doesn’t
come from Clean Sheet, Vicenzo Mio and Hannibal the Great.
Clean Sheet is the obvious one. He was very well backed
for his delayed seasonal debut at Cheltenham, last month – but ran as if needing
it.
Clearly he is well thought of – and he could prove very difficult to
beat. However, he has been installed 7/4 favourite - and that leaves no margin
for error.
Vicenzo Mio is the obvious one to take him on
with.
We
were actually on him last time, when he appeared not to get home in the Ladbroke
at Ascot, just before Christmas.
I’m
hoping that race was just a bit too competitive for him, at this point in his
career – and todays contest represents quite a drop in class.
It
also represents a drop in class from his penultimate run at Sandown.
He
finished a close up third to Lil Rockerfella that day – which is very good
handicap form.
My
feeling is that Vicenzo Mio is well handicapped on a mark of 129 – and that’s
ignoring Harry Cobdens 7lb claim.
I have a slight concern about the trip –
the key will be to get him to settle early. If young Harry can achieve that, I
think he’ll take a lot of beating.
The potential fly in the ointment, is
Hannibal the Great.
He’s
not been on the track for nearly 3 years – so could never be tipped. However, he
has decent looking novice form from 3 seasons ago - and appears to be well
fancied by the market…
Hopefully that support will dry up close to the off –
because he could be a real danger if it doesn’t.
4:45: De Kerry Man is another who we were on last
time.
That was in the Classic chase at Warwick over 3m5f.
De
Kerry Man tanked through that race – but was always doing too much and was a
spent force, when he fell at the second last.
He’s cut back to 2m4f today,
which I think will suit him much better. He’s also been dropped 3lb by the
handicapper – which is a definite bonus !
I’m
sure he will be given an attacking ride – and provided his jumping is up to the
job, I think he will take a bit of pegging back.
Again, the race isn’t as competitive as numbers would
suggest.
Cernunnus is favourite - but he appears to be very weak
in the market – and I am happy enough to oppose him, at the
prices.
Conversely, Ericht appears very strong in the betting – and that is a
worry.
Like
Leo Luna yesterday, he is potentially a very well handicapped horse – and if
connections have decided that today is the day, he will be difficult to
beat.
He
will certainly appreciate the better ground – though he can miss out the odd
fence.
Of
the others, then Comeonginger has to be respected.
He
could also be a nuisance for De Kerry Man, as he is another who likes to front
run.
Hopefully De Kerry Man will be a bit too quick for him
!
Cloudy Bob is a solid option – but he would prefer softer
ground; whilst you get the feeling that West Wizard is capable of more than he
has shown so far – but it would take an act of faith to support him…
Newcastle
1:50: Just a quick mention for Seeyouatmidnight,
who has his warm up for the RSA chase in this.
He’s
clearly not a betting proposition (1/6 !) – but hopefully all will go smoothly
and he can book his ticket to the festival (and in the ‘right’ race
!).
2:20: I’m counting on our old friend,
Vendor in this.
We’ve been following him all season – and have been on
him twice: when second at Wetherby in November – and when wining at the same
track, the following month.
He
was raised 8lb for the win – and I thought that might be too much for him, but
his last 2 runs have suggested that isn’t the case.
On
the first of them, he looked sure to win (again at Wetherby), but ran out of
stamina, close home (that was over 2m4f).
His
most recent run was at Musselburgh. That is essentially a speed track – and
whilst Vendor doesn’t lack pace, it wouldn’t be his ideal course.
Despite that, he again nearly won – only finding the
progressive Shrewd too good, close home.
He’s
been raised a further2lb for that run – which isn’t ideal. However, he gets to
race on a more suitable track today – and on his preferred soft
ground.
From
a handicapping perspective, he is not a good thing – and I guess that’s why he’s
not particularly strong in the betting.
However, looking through the race, I
couldn’t see anything that was massively progressive…
Draytonian s the obvious one, but I have some doubts over
him – and the betting doesn’t seem overly keen this morning, either…
The
biggest danger could well turn out to be Cape Caster.
He’s the only horse
Evan Williams sends from South Wales – which is possibly a tip in itself – and
he ran a nice race last time at Cheltenham.
I
have a few concerns about whether he is a ‘proper’ NH horse (he’s ex flat) – but
he might get away wit hit today, if the ground isn’t too soft…
2:50: Woodford County is another old friend that
I’m turning to this afternoon…
We
were on him in last seasons Eider, when he finished an honourable third to
Millborough.
He’s
a few pounds better off with the winner today – but more importantly, a little
more mature.
He was only 8 last season, so it was always going to be a big
ask. He raced very keenly in the race – and ultimately, I think that’s why he
didn’t get home.
We
were also on him this season, when he won the Devon National in
December.
He
was more relaxed in the race that day, which meant he had more energy left when
it really mattered. Hopefully things will pan out in a similar fashion this
afternoon.
As
you would expect, this is a competitive race.
Of
the favourites, then Ballyculla is the one I fear most. He looks as if he has
been laid out for the race and I would expect him to run well.
Chances can be given to a number of the others, but the
other one I want on side, is Cork Citizen.
He’s
a real ‘dark horse’.
He’d
spent all of his life in PTPs and Hunter chases in Ireland, prior to making his
debut for David Pipe at Taunton, last month.
He
ran a cracker that day, just failing to get up close home – and looking for all
the world, a winner next time.
Ofcourse, I didn’t expect that ‘next time’ he
would be running in such a valuable race – but the fact that David Pipe is
prepared to run him in it, possibly says something.
I
suspect he’s the sort that will either go very close - or blow out
completely,
At
early odds of 16/1, I think it’s worth having him on side.
4:35: I might have been prepared to take a chance
on Blakemount in this at a price - but that price would have needed to be bigger
than 4/1…
In
truth, you can argue that 4/1 is a fair price – if the horse is at its
peak.
Certainly he has enough ability to win off a mark of 132
– though he does tend to find the odd fence getting in his way !
Aside from
his jumping, the other concern, is his fitness.
It
was early November when Blakemount last ran – so he could easily need
this.
If
he remains strong in the betting – and you fancy taking a chance on his jumping,
then I wouldn’t put you off a small play on him.
Chepstow
2:40: Wild Bill is another one that I might have
taken a risk on…
Again, I think you can argue that his current price of
4/1 is fair enough – though he also comes with some concerns…
This
time it is primarily the ground.
He
appears to have a marked preference for good ground – so whether he will cope
with Chepstow’s soft, is a mute point.
That
said, Evan Williams must have known it would be soft when he declared him – so
you do wonder why he would run him, if it is a genuine concern (the horse also
ran well until falling, in heavy ground at Ffos Las).
I
guess it’s just a difficult situation to read – and a trappy race as
well.
Of
the others, then I could see Ivy Gate running well, at a price – though probably
not quite well enough to win.
3:45: Kings Palace is the obvious one in this –
but he strikes me as almost a bit too obvious…
He
is now best known as a chaser – though he is in danger of becoming a
disappointing one.
He
was well beaten when fancied for last seasons RSA chase – and also well beaten
when favourite for this seasons Paddy Power chase.
There is a chance that he will bounce back to form today,
over hurdles – as he certainly has a lot of class - but his need to lead won’t
make it easy in such a competitive race.
I’d
rather take a chance on his stablemate Batavir.
This
one has a bit of an in and out profile. A good win at Wincanton last Christmas,
was followed by a disappointing run at Doncaster.
This
season, he ran a cracker on his second outing of the season at Haydock – but has
disappointed twice since then.
He
is now back down to the same mark he won form at Wincanton - and that makes him interesting.
What
makes him even more interesting is the application of first time blinkers - and
the knowledge that he really needs to win today, in order to get in to the
Pertemps final at the festival (which is his stated target).
Kings Palace should put pace to the race, and help him to
settle – and if he does that, he must have a decent chance off his feather
weight…
This
is another race which isn’t as competitive as the numbers suggest and hopefully
Batavir will be able to come home in front.
4:20: Arthurs Oak is the second ‘eye catcher’ to
run since being added to the list – and as with the first (Unioniste), he’s
found himself in a small field race.
He
is taken on by just 4 opponents – though that shouldn’t matter too much, as he
likes to front run.
Ofcourse what it does mean, is that there is very little
juice in his price – though I think the general 5/2 (11/4 in places), is
fair…
Aside from the price, there is nothing to put me off
him.
He
will have conditions to suit – and could get an uncontested lead.
He
is also Venetia’s only runner on the card, which I would see as a
positive.
I’m
tempted to make him a Top Pick – I’m just a bit worried that either Oscar Sunset
or Grey Gold will pick him off close home.
He
could certainly set the race up for them – though they will have to be tough to
go past him…
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
(E) Kempton 3:35 Theatre Guide 0.375pt win
9/1
(E) Kempton 3:35 Viva Steve 0.125pt win
18/1
(E) Kempton 4:10 Vicenzo Mio 0.375pt win
9/1
(E) Kempton 4:45 De Kerry Man 0.25pt win
6/1
(E) Newcastle 2:20 Vendor 0.5pt win
4/1
(E) Newcastle 2:50
Woodford County 0.25pt win 12/1
(E) Newcastle 2:50
Cork Citizen 0.125pt win 14/1
(E) Chepstow 3:45 Batavir 0.25pt win
10/1
Eye
Catchers
Chepstow
4:20 Arthurs Oak
