Daily write-up - Feb 17th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Towcester and Musselburgh in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

It’s uninspiring stuff, however…

Aside from the reappearance of Annie Powers, the Punchestown meeting has little to recommend it (and nothing, in terms of betting opportunities).

There are a couple of horses running, one at Towcester and the other at Musselburgh, which I could have been interested in tipping – however the market is wise to them and they represent no value at the early prices.

I’ve been considering bringing back the Top Picks for a little while now…

It’s pretty clear that I’m not going to be tipping any ‘shorties’ this season – and Top Picks have filled that gap in the past.

For the benefit of those who weren’t with the service last season, then Top Picks are horses who I think will win – but who I think I have been put in too short by the bookmakers (or at least, with no ‘value’ in their price).

So far this season, I’ve just covered these horses as mentions (so you’ve had to work out yourself which ones I really fancy) – but I going to start flagging them as official ‘Top Picks’ from now on.

To an extent, what I’m doing is using the last couple of months of this season, to set-up things as I intend to run them next season.
I’ve already introduced the weekly eye catchers (and I expect their roll to evolve) – and I want the Top Picks back next season, so re-introducing them now, will help get them bedded in.

The hope is that if you back all the Top Picks to level stakes, at BSP, then you won’t lose.

If you can beat BSP, then you should win.

Over the past couple of seasons, I issued around 30 Top Picks and they did show a profit at BSP (suggesting there was an edge – although it was a small sample).

Anyway, thoughts on the day are quite brief  today (apologies for that) – but I really don’t have a strong opinion on many of the races…

Towcester

3:00: I’ve put this up as the race of the day in the forum – but appetite to tackle it seems limited !

In a way, I can understand that. It’s a very tricky looking affair – in which it is difficult to be adamant about much.

I think Badger Wood is the most likely winner – but he’s also vying for favouritism.

He won a competitive race at Taunton on his chasing debut, last time – and could well improve for that run. Assuming his jumping holds up, an 8lb higher mark shouldn’t stop him going close this afternoon.

That said, Towcester and Taunton are very different tracks, so his ability to get home are the much stiffer Northamptonshire track, has to be taken on trust.

It’s the kind of race where a case could be made for most of the runners, but the other one that interests me, is Our Island.
Rated 130 at his peak, he gets to run off a mark of just 110 this afternoon.

That’s because he has shown virtually nothing for years – and ordinarily, I wouldn’t be interested in him.

However, he’s switched stables and spent some time hunting.

If that has freshened him up, then at a track which should play to his stamina strengths he could just bounce back.

In reality, he is more likely to tail off and be pulled up – but at a big price, he might be of some interest to those of you who like to take a speculative risk.

3:30: Altesse De Guye is my comeback Top Pick.

I really wanted to tip her – but a Price of 3/1, leaves no margin for error.

Purely on form, I actually think it is a fair price – but an 88 day absence worries me…

Her last run was at Ascot in November – and I tipped her there, when she split Desert Queen and Smart Talk.

That is strong form – as is her previous run at Chepstow, behind Sykes…

Her handicap mark has remained unchanged following her latest run – and I can’t believe that she faces anything of Desert Queens quality today.

The worry is the combination of the trip (as far as she wants); the ground (will be plenty soft enough); the Towcester hill – and that fitness concern.
I just fear that they may combine to get her beaten…

There are also 2 or 3 in the race, who might be capable of giving her a race.

Timons Tara, Dolores Delightful – and maybe most of all, the unexposed Lakeshore Lady.

That said, if her fitness was guaranteed – or with slightly less of a stamina test, I would definitely have taken the plunge and tipped Altesse De Guye.

I would even have taken a risk in todays conditions, at a bigger price.

Instead, I’ll make her a Top Pick and hope she drifts out a bit (if she doesn’t then, I will assume I’ve over stated the negatives !).

Musselburgh

4:00: This is the only race of real interest on the Musselburgh card – and there was only one horse in it, that I was interested in.

Unfortunately, that is the favourite, Teo Vivo – and as with Altesse De Guye, he’s been put in too short for me to be prepared to tip.

Unlike Altesse, the issue with Teo Vivo, is not the conditions – they are perfect – it is the potentially dangerous opposition.

Teo Vivo faces 8 rivals – and it is possible to make a case for at least 3 or 4 of them.

That said, I don’t think the case for any of them is as strong as the case for Teo Vivo.

He ran an absolute cracker last time out, over course and distance, when splitting the hugely progressive pair, Holly Bush Henry and Shrewd.

The latter has already gone on and franked the form – so even off a 3lb higher mark today, it can be argued that Teo Vivo is well handicapped.

I do think that Teo Vivo has a tick in just about every box – and simply can’t see how he won’t run very well.

The nagging fear is that something improves past him – and whether that is fully factored into the early price.

The second Top Pick on the day, then…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead, if you do choose to get involved.

TVB

Advice Summary

Top Picks

Towcester 3:35 Altesse De Guye

Musselburgh 4:00 Teo Vivo