Daily write-up - Feb 13th

Uttoxeter has been lost to the weather, leaving 3 NH meetings today: at Newbury and Warwick in the UK – plus Gowran Park in Ireland.

The Newbury meeting is one of the last big meetings, where horses intending to compete at Cheltenham, can have a preparatory run.

The card is structured to encourage this, and features a couple of races which are effectively trials for the Gold Cup and Champion chase, respectively.

However, the turn out for both races is very poor, as - aside from the main Betfair hurdle – is the turn out for the rest of card.

It’s a similar story at Warwick where the main races of the day have drawn 3 and 6 runners respectively – and the meeting starts with two 4 runner races.

The reason is quite simple – the weather.

Endless rain has resulted in very deep ground – and connections simply aren’t prepared to ‘bottom’ horses with Cheltenham aspirations, by running them on it.

They would rather get them fit at home – and the races are therefore cutting up badly.

There is nothing we can do about it – but as a consequence, the opportunities to bet (or tip) are severely limited.

As a result, there is just the one tip on the day – but there are always my thoughts on the other races, which you can hopefully use to eak out a few more opportunities (if you are that way inclined !).

Newbury

1:50: This is quite an open looking race and my initial fancy was Millanisi Boy.

He caught my eye at this course on his penultimate outing when he split subsequent winners, Uknowhatimeanharry and Masterplan.

That is good form – and even with an 8lb rise, I expect Millanisi Boy to go close today.

However this is a competitive race – and the initial quote of 11/2 didn’t look to contain much juice.

Worse still, he was then tipped by Pricewise and at 9/2, I’m happy enough to let him run unbacked.

It’s difficult to be dogmatic about many of the others: I’ll be surprised if Gevrey Chambertain wins – but aside from him, I could give a chance of sorts to all of the others.

At a price, I could be interested in Count Guido Diero.

He may get an uncontested lead – he loves heavy ground – and the 7lb claimer in the saddle, makes him potentially quite well handicapped.
However, hand on heart, I couldn’t say that I wasn’t picking him simply because of the price – and that shouldn’t really be sufficient.

As a consequence, it is probably just a race to watch…

2:25: There is a very disappointing turn out for the Grade 2 Denman chase – with decent handicapper, Rocky Creek, setting the standard.

Rated 158, he’s at least a stone shy of the level required to win a Gold Cup – and is very exposed.

Officially speaking, Ballynagour is the best horse in the race - and in receipt of weight from a number of his rivals, he should be the one to beat.

However, his last 2 runs have been very poor – and even though they were in grade 1 contests there is a niggling concern that he is on the down grade.

The trouble is, it’s nearly impossible to construct a decent case for any of the others.

On very heavy ground and with his stable in better form, Bob Ford could maybe cause a shock; whilst a first time visor at a course he loves, could maybe see Splash of Ginge improve - but to be honest, you would be clutching at straws…

If he can recapture some form, Ballynagour should win: if he can’t, no result would really surprise me…

3:00: I was sorely tempted to tip Top Gamble in this…

However, it would have been a tip based on the expectation that Dodging Bullets won’t be fully wound up – and that doesn’t seem like the most robust of reason for tipping something.

Certainly, if he is fully wound up, then Dodging Bullets should be able to give 5lb to Top Gamble.

However Dodging Bullets has the Champion chase as his main target – whereas today, is likely to be Top Gambles big day.

More than that, Top Gamble should be the better suited of the pair to the soft ground – and in Dickie Johnson, he has the right man on top, to take the race by the scruff of the neck.
There can be little doubt that Dickie will set off and try and make all on Top Gamble – the question is whether Dodging Bullets is fit enough to go past him, up the home straight.

My suspicion is that Top Gamble will hold him off – but it is just a guess.
There are 2 other runners is the race – and on official ratings, Captain Conan has every chance.
Certainly if Top Gamble goes off too hard – and Dodging Bullets isn’t fully wound up – he could pick up the pieces.
That said, I’ll be surprised if this doesn’t turn into a 2 horse race and at the prices (around 11/4), Top Gamble is definitely the one I would want to side with.

3:35: This is a fascinating race – but one in which it is very hard to have a strong opinion…

There are just too many unknowns and imponderables – exactly as you would expect for a race of this value !

Of the market leaders: then I am keen on Sternrubin and Affair D’Honneur – but not so keen on Modus and War Sound.
Blazer is impossible to assess. He was so impressive last Saturday – and should have a huge chance under a 7lb penalty – but connections seem decidedly lukewarm on his chances.

My feeling is that he can be opposed.

I would love to see Sternrubin win. His performance in the Ladbroke, just before Christmas, had to be seen, to be believed.

If Dickie can get the fractions right, he is going to take a bit of passing.
The form of Affair D’Honnneur isn’t anywhere near as strong – but I suspect he has a lot of untapped potential.

He trainer, Harry Whittington, is making a quite a name for himself – and a win in this race would really put him on the map.

I could also see Agrapart and  Mad Jack Mytton running well – whilst at a huge price, Flying Angel is potentially interesting.

On balance though, I feel happiest making it a watching race – and hoping I watch Strenrubin leading from pillar to post !

Warwick

2:05: it’s difficult to get too excited by the first 2 races on the Warwick card – and in truth, the mares hurdle isn’t that much better…

It contians a couple more runners – but in all probability, it will be won by one of the market leaders.

Both Jennies Jewel and Jessbers Dream have ticks in lots of boxes and I could see them fighting out the finish.

Of the two, Jennies Jewel looks sure to run her race and I struggle to see her not in the first two.

However, Jessber’s Dream has more potential and there is a chance she will improve past the Irish mare.

The first and second favourite, nominated to finish first and second, is hardly earth shattering analysis though !

3:15: This is an open looking race and I would nominate Saint John Henry as the most likely winner.

He was progressing nicely last season, until falling at this course in March.

He fell on his next outing as well, and it has probably taken him a couple more runs to get his confidence back

He definitely showed more on his most recent run at Ffos Las – and with the handicapper relenting a bit and first blinkers on, I think he is the most likely winner.

However, he is also favourite - and there is no margin in a quote of 4/1.

Of potentially more interest from a ‘value’ perspective, is Letsbeso.

He has been pulled up on his last 2 runs over fences. He switched to hurdles today - and off a much reduced mark.

More significantly however, a tongue tie is applied for the first time. If his issue has been breathing  - and if the tongue tie sorts it out – I could see him coming good this afternoon.

There is quite a lot of guesswork involved though…

3:50: Those of you with good memories, will recall that I was quite interested in Headleys Bridge last Saturday, when he was declared to run at the abandoned Ffos Las meeting.

My main issue with him then was the fact that he had to carry top weight in very heavy ground.

Well, that’s certainly not an issue today – as he gets in with just 10st 4lb on his back ! (minus a 5lb claim).

The reason for that is that he is facing much stronger opposition today – headed by the grade 1 winning Taquin Du Seuil.

The main issue today, is whether Headleys Bridge will be good enough to beat such talented rivals.

In truth, I don’t know: but I do know that that there is a question mark of some sort against every one of his rivals – so at a big price, I figured he was worth a shot.

Certainly I think he will handle the ground: whilst his fast, slick jumping should ideally suit the Warwick course.

His absence is a worry – though he did win on his seasonal debut last season.

Perhaps the biggest positive however, is the jockey booking.
David Noonan is one of the rising stars of the weighing room - his 5lb claim is a bit of a gift. He has never ridden for Simon Earl before, yet today, he travels up from Newbury during the afternoon, to take the ride on Headleys Bridge.

Maybe I’m reading more into it than there actually is – but it does strike me as an interesting move.

Of the others in the race, then I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see big runs from the 2 Venetia horses: whilst Galway Jack looks the one most likely to run his race (but I doubt he is much better than Headleys Bridge).

In summary, this is another race where any result wouldn’t particularly surprise me: so siding with the outsider, who has ticks in plenty of boxes – plus an interesting ‘subtle sign’ in his favour – seemed like a sensible move…

Gowran Park

2:15: There are only 4 runners in the Red Mills chase (3 with a realistic chance) – but it is still a fascinating contest.

Needless to say, I am drawn to my old favourite, Morning Assembly – though I don’t like to see that Davy Russell has deserted him for Smashing.

That one was a hugely impressive winner last time out – but I’m not convinced he wants the step up to 2m4f that he gets today.

Maybe he just needed the run last time (he had been off the track for a couple of months previously), but I felt it was only his class that got him home over a trip 2 furlongs shorter.

If Ruby chooses to make this a test of stamina on Ballycasey (and he might well do so), then I can see Smashing struggling to get home.

In that scenario, Morning Assembly and Brian Cooper, could well be able to pick them off, on the run to the last.

That’s how I would like it to pan out, anyway !!

4:35: Skellig Rocks is the one that interests me most in this.

He ran a nice race to finish fourth in a competitive race at Down Royal, over Christmas.

That was his handicap debut – and only his fourth run over hurdles, so he should still have plenty of scope for improvement.

Based on that run, then todays step up in trip should also be in his favour, and I think he has a good chance.

That said, it’s not a race where I could be adamant about many of the runners - and a best price of 5/1 leaves little margin for error.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tip Summary

(E) Warwick 3:50 Headleys Bridge 0.25pt win 16/1