Wednesday 17 February 2016

Daily write-up - Feb 11th

Despite the loss of Taunton, there are still 3 NH meetings today: at Doncaster and Huntingdon in the UK – plus Thurles in Ireland.

After a few days of inaction, it’s good to get back going again – and both Doncaster and Huntingdon have put on fair cards (certainly for a mid week).

I’m actually keen on quite a few horses – but almost without exception, they were well backed last night and the margins in the prices available this morning had become very small.

Maybe one or two of them will drift out a bit before the off (the bookmakers have plenty of margin in their prices), in which case they could be worth getting involved with.

It’s good to see that most of you (over 2/3rds now) have joined the new forum.
Activity is beginning to pick up in there – with a number of new threads being added daily.

I plan to post a thread containing ‘eye catchers’ on a weekly basis, through to the end of the season (I posted the first one yesterday).
This is a feature that I intend to introduce into the Info service formally, next season - but I’ll use the remaining weeks of this season to hone how I handle it.
Hopefully, you’ll find it of interest/value.

Anyway, onto the thoughts on todays main races…


Huntingdon

1:25: Still Together looks the interesting one in this – and it’s no surprise he has been installed favourite against some pretty weak – and exposed - rivals...
A PTP winner in Ireland, he’s only run 5 times under rules in the UK: twice in bumpers – and three times in maiden hurdles.
He’s shown nothing on any of those runs, so the handicapper has guessed at a mark of 103.
He is stepped up a mile in trip for his handicap debut – and is now running over 3 miles (the distance over which he won his point in Ireland).
Clearly, he’s not the kind of horse that could be tipped (as it’s all guess work) – but provided he stays strong in the market, I think he is the most likely winner of the race.

1:55: Value at Risk is the first of the horses running today, which I was very interested in at early prices yesterday (he opened at 10/1) – but less interested in at the prices available first thing this morning (11/2).
In truth, there is affair amount of guess work involved with him – but equally, there is little doubt that he could be much better than this current handicap mark of 139.
He’s very highly thought of by Dan Skelton, and was fully expected to make a top class novice chaser this season.
However, early falls in his first 2 starts, have seen chasing plans put on hold.
He reverted to hurdles last time out and ran pretty well in a class 1 handicap at Ascot.
He was still in second place turning in, before weakening out of things close home.
As that was the first time he had got further than the second obstacle this season, it’s reasonable to think he could improve for the run – and if that is the case, I think he is the one to beat.
That said this is quite a tough race.
Baoulet Delaroque is the favourite, on the back of a very easy win at Wincanton, last week.
He’s been raised 15lb for that win – so under a 7lb penalty, is effectively 8lb well in today.
However this is a much stronger race than last weeks – so it remains to be seen whether he is up to the job.
Nicky Henderson runs 3 – and whilst a chance of sorts can be given to them all, I would be more fearful of Totalise.
He ran fifth in the grade 1 Greatwood hurdle, back in November – and I would expect him to go close today, provided he is fully tuned up after a near 3 month break.
Of the outsiders, then I could give a squeak to Cusheen Bridge (33/1). He holds Champagne Express on Cheltenham form from November and should be suited by stepping back up in trip having disappointed over 2 miles, last time.

2:30: This doesn’t look the strongest of races and I think it is worth taking a small chance on Squire Trelawney, at a reasonable price.
He won a similar race on his seasonal debut at Wincanton, off a 5lb lower mark.
That was following 18 months on the sidelines, so there was always going to be a question mark concerning his next run (in case the bounce factor stepped in).
It’s difficult to know whether he did ‘bounce’ next time – or whether he was simply outclassed in a better grade.
Whatever, he was beaten a long way in the race won by Tenor Nivernais – but that one is a genuine class 1 handicapper and the others horses that finished in front of him that day are also much better animals than those he faces today.
In short, I think his running in that race, can be ignored.
Both of Squire Trelawneys runs this season have been over 2m4f – but there is an expectation that he will be better suited to the near 3 mile trip he faces today.
As a 10 year old novice, time isn’t really on his side, so I expect connections to be keen to take any opportunities that come his way – and I think today could be an opportunity.
In terms of his rivals, then Vazaro Delafayette has been installed as favourite on his first run for 441 days.
His price is mainly down to his connections – and the fact he beat the now 142 rated Spookydooky, in receipt of just 10lb, the last time he ran.
However, I’m not sure how relevant that form line is.
At a much bigger price, I have a nagging concern about Ballycoe, who could be very well  treated  - if he is able to recapture some form.
He is maybe worth saving stakes on (unofficially speaking).


Doncaster

1:15: I was hopeful I might be able to find something in this – but the market seems to have it about right…
Willoughby Hedge is the one who interests me most, after a couple of promising runs this season.
He looked a little unlucky when unseating at Newbury on his seasonal debut – and was a bit unlucky to run into the very well handicapped As De Fer last time at Warwick.
Off the same mark today, I would expect him to run another big race – but there is little margin in a price of 4/1.
Firm Order is well handicapped: will have conditions to suit – and his stable has hit a bit of form.
He’s been off the track for over 2 months – but if he’s ready to do himself justice, he could go close and 8/1 is not a bad price.
The other one that catches my eye, is Solstice Son.
He’s had over a year on the sidelines and has only run twice over fences.
However, he has the potential to be better than his current mark and the booking of David Noonan means he’s getting a virtually ‘free’ 5lb.
The market close to the off will likely provide the best guide to his chance.

3:30: There is a massive field for this, which made me optimistic that I might get a decent price on Emerging Force.
He opened up at 8/1 – which was decent enough – and I would have been quite happy to tip him all the way down to 6/1.
However, I couldn’t beat 5/1 early – and with the withdrawal of Shades of Grey – 9/2 became the best price – and that is too short…
In truth, he’s not the most solid of selections.
He’s only run twice over hurdles so a lot of it is based on a belief that he will improve.
Certainly he needs to improve on his last time out run – but better ground and a longer trip should help.
I also really like the booking of Richard Johnson. He has a great record for Harry Whittington – and it just suggests to me, that the stable mean business.
Although there are 19 runners, a line can be drawn through quite a lot of them.
However, there are still at least half a dozen, who I would be fearful of.
The Artful Cobbler won very easily last week – and with his 7lb penalty remains well handicapped and has a very low weight.
Balmusette, Whataknight and Quinto are others who you would have to respect: whilst at a price, I wouldn’t be surprised to see decent runs from Shadapour, Walk on Al and I Just Know.
All this said, I think Emerging Force and The Artful Cobbler are the two to focus on.
Emerging Force is 6/1 on BF as I type this – so there must be a possibility that price will be achievable.
However, I can’t get it officially – so unfortunately, he can’t be a tip.

4:40: I thought Notebook had a big chance at Towcester last week – but unfortunately the horse had other ideas and decided not to run !
That was the first time he’d displayed such temperament issues – and whilst it would have to be a concern today, you can be pretty sure that connections will take every step to prevent a repeat occurrence.
Assuming he gets off OK, then he really should win this (it looks a weaker race than the Towcester one).
I’d suggest backing him in running, once the race is under way – but he’s an habitual front runner and others will likely view things the same way.
Probably just a viewing race, then…


Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.




Tip Summary


(E) Huntingdon 2:30 Squire Trelawney 0.25pt win 8/1

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