There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Fontwell and
Southwell in the UK – and Leopardstown in Ireland.
The
ground continues to dry out: I dare say it won’t be long before they start
talking about watering at Cheltenham !
That’s in the future however (just over 2 weeks away, for
anyone who’s wondering !).
There’s not much to be said about todays 3 cards: they
are reasonable enough, without being spectacular.
I’ve
found 1 tip on the day – and 1 Top Pick.
Just
a quick reminder that if you fancy attending the TVB day at the races –
Uttoxeter: Saturday 2nd
April – and want a cheap ticket, you need to register your interest on the
forum today (I plan on ordering tickets this evening).
Similarly, if anyone else is interested in the syndicate
that Neil is considering setting up, I’m sure he would appreciate knowing
asap…
On
to today then – and my thoughts on a few of the races…
Southwell
2:10: I have to admit, I’m a little surprised that
Blades Lad is a relatively easy to back, 6/1 shot in this…
We
were on him when he won a similar contest 3 runs ago, off a 4lb lower mark - and
I think he has every chance of going in again today.
In
fairness, he only just got home that day at Musselburgh – but late rain had
softened the ground – and I think he only just got away with it.
I’m
hopeful that the Southwell surface will be quicker today (the current going
stick reading is 7.3 – which is roughly good to soft).
Since that win, he has run 3 times: twice over fences and
once on the flat.
He
finished unplaced on both of the jumps outings – but they were in better class
races than todays (class 3 contests at Ascot and Musselburgh) and on softer
ground as well.
He
actually won the flat race – which if nothing else, demonstrates that he remains
in good heart.
He
is Brians Hughes only ride of the day – so there are ticks in plenty of boxes –
and a subtle sign as well !
In
terms of his rivals, then it’s difficult to get overly excited about any of
them.
That
said, in these relatively low grade affairs, there is always the chance that
something will show marked improvement.
The
betting says that Trapper Peak is most likely to do that, on his second outing
for Alex Dunn. I also have a slight worry about both Santas Son and Netherby
(though neither could be fancied on recent form).
With
a straight bat however, I think Blades Lad is the one to beat.
He should be well suited by conditions; is in decent form; and is the only ride, for his top jockey.
He should be well suited by conditions; is in decent form; and is the only ride, for his top jockey.
Hopefully the betting will pick up on him, close to the
off !
3:40: I quite fancy Amiral Collonges in this –
though not quite sufficiently to tip him…
He
was a really impressive winner at Ascot on his penultimate outing – before
disappointing badly on his most recent run, when favourite for a much better
race at Huntingdon.
That
poor performance was attributed to a mistake at the very first hurdle - and I
guess that’s a possibility (if he knocked himself). Certainly he looked a shadow
of the horse who ran at Ascot…
His
mark was raised 10lb for the Ascot win, but I felt he deserved at least that.
On
the flip side, his trainer James Evans, hasn’t been in great form recently, so
that tempers enthusiasm…
The
other one I’ll be keeping an eye on in the race, is Pyrshan.
We
were on him in the Ascot race won by Amiral Collonges – and whilst he was no
match for the winner that day, a 12lb weight pull should bring them
closer.
I
wouldn’t have thought it would be enough for Pyrshan to turn the tables – though
I guess it wouldn’t be impossible…
Fontwell
2:50: Thinger Licht looks the one to beat in this
– but unfortunately, he’s been installed as favourite…
He
transferred into the care of Dan Skelton last spring, and quickly won 3 out of
his first 4 races for the stable.
He
was pulled up on the fifth one, in July and given a long break after that, only
returning to action at Market Rasen, last month.
He
ran a cracker there, finishing second to the in-form Sunny Ledgend, on ground
that would been much softer than he wanted.
Todays better ground will be far more suitable – and with
that run under his belt, I think will take a bit of beating.
Half
cases can be made for a few of his rivals – but non look as solid as he
does.
3:20: This is the best race of the day – but
again, I think the right horse is at the top of betting.
As
you are probably aware, I’m a big fan of Lil Rockerfella – and under what appear
to be almost ideal conditions, I think he will take a lot of beating this
afternoon.
I
felt the main danger in the race was Adrien du Pont – but he’s now a NR – so
that’s a result !
However, as a consequence, you can’t now beat 5/2 about
Lil Rockerfella – and that feels tight, against some decent opposition.
That said, I think conditions will suit him better than most of his rivals – and I think he’s the best horse in the race.
That said, I think conditions will suit him better than most of his rivals – and I think he’s the best horse in the race.
I
think that I’ll make him a Top Pick…
Leopardstown
4:00: If she bounces back to form (and there is a
chance she will), then Dressedtothenines is likely to take all the beating in
this.
Rated 145 over hurdles, she runs off a mark of 125 over
fences today.
She
is potentially thrown in – and has the right man in the saddle, in the shape of
Barry Geraghty, if today is the day.
The
market close to the off, will doubtless advise on her chances – but without that
knowledge, I’d be inclined to side with Aurora Bell.
He
was very progressive last spring – and ran well enough on his return to action,
behind Riverside City, in the Troytown chase.
That
was back in November – and he wasn’t seen in action again until 10 days ago,
over hurdles at Clonmel.
He
ran well again that day, finishing second to Urano.
Assuming he has fully recovered from that run – and it
has brought him on, then I could see him running very well, this
afternoon.
12/1
feels a fair enough price (possibly EW).
4:30: Court Frontier is a horse I’ve been watching
closely this season.
He’s
been hammered in the market on his last 2 outings – but disappointed badly on
both.
I
felt there might have been reasons on his penultimate run – but it was hard to
forgive him last time.
I have no doubt he has plenty of ability – and is probably well handicapped - but we really need to see it on the track before we consider supporting him.
I have no doubt he has plenty of ability – and is probably well handicapped - but we really need to see it on the track before we consider supporting him.
Of
more interest, is Fr Humphrey.
He’s
been an impressive winner of his last two chases – though the most recent, was
back in November.
That
said, the one before, was last May – so he can clearly go well fresh.
The
booking of Jack Kennedy is almost a tip in itself - and his trainer, May Louise
Hallahan, has really stepped up her game this season.
At a
price I could have been interested in him – but he’s been backed down to 4/1 and
that feels too short to being getting involved.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead
!
TVB.
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
(E) Southwell 2:10 Blades Lad 0.375pt win
6/1
Top
Picks
Fontwell
3:20 Lil Rockerfella
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