Daily write-up - Feb 21st

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Ffos Las and Market Rasen in the UK – plus Naas in Ireland.

I am a bit surprised that they are racing at Ffos Las.

Apparently it was part waterlogged yesterday – and I doubt conditions improved markedly overnight…

I’m sure the ground will be truly desperate – and once again, it will be a case of survival of the fittest…

There are no tips today – and in truth, there aren’t any particularly strong mentions either.

Too much of the racing at the moment, seems to be ‘random’.

I review the results at the end of each day and see which horses I could have picked/tipped – and too often at the moment, I wouldn’t have got the winner even after the race had been run !

Interestingly though, almost without exception, the winners are all returned at shorter prices then their form entitles them to be.

Wincanton was a classic case in point yesterday.

I suspect that every winner on the card was available at a bigger price in the morning, than the returned SP.

Clearly ‘the market’ knows which horses are capable of running big races…

Anyway, suffice to say, I’ll be keeping things very tight until conditions improve.

I’ll produce the write-ups a normal – but so far as bets are concerned, then my suggestion would be to follow the money !!

Here are my thoughts on some of todays races…

Ffos Las

3:45: I did briefly think about taking a risk on Heronshaw in this…

He is trained by one of my favourite trainers: Henry Daly; and ridden by one of my favourite jockeys: Paddy Brennan.

He also has form which entitles him to go pretty close in this – though he has been disappointing on his 2 most recent runs.
Prior to that, he ran very well on his chasing debut at Exeter – and based on his hurdles form from last season, todays trip and ground should be no issue for him.

He is also well handicapped compared to his hurdles mark – so if the first time blinkers have the desired effect, I would expect him to go very close.

The booking of Paddy Brennan for his only ride of the day, was almost the clincher for me.

However, when I looked into the stats, I was surprised (and disappointed) to see that Brennan has ridden for Henry Daly 20 times before – and never won…

Daly also has a single runner at Market Rasen – and Jake Greenhall (his stable jockey) is riding it.

The suggestion is that Heronhaw isn’t that fancied…

Ofcourse I might be reading things wrong – but if I am, I am absolutely sure there will be a glut of money for the horse.

If he goes off around 5/1 (he’s currently 10/1) then you might want to get involved – otherwise he is probably best watched…

The other one of interest in the race is Big Society.

We were on him earlier in the season at Exeter, when he barely went a yard. He followed that up, by wining comfortably at Chepstow.

A really good run at Newbury, was then followed by him pulling up at Wincanton.
You could say that the horse is ‘enigmatic’ !

It could go either way today – and I’m not sure it is possible to tell in advance.

My suggestion would be to watch them set off and see how he’s going after the first few fences.
If he is travelling sweetly, then he has the ability to go very close: if he is at the back being rousted along, he is probably best left alone !!

4:50: I wouldn’t normally get involved in a Hunter Chase – but this one looks quite interesting…

The short priced favourite, is Monkey Kingdom.

He was a decent horse under rules – and is only 8, so should be reaching his peak (whereas most of his rivals are in decline).

All things being equal, he would indeed be the one to beat - however he is trained by Rebecca Curtis and as I said yesterday, her stable are dreadfully out of form.
Certainly I wouldn’t consider backing one of hers at odd on – even in a modest hunter chase.

Night Alliance is the one that interests me.
He has won over todays course and distance - and in desperate ground.

On official ratings, he would appear to have it all to do – but he was rated 137 in his prime (higher than Monkey Kingdom is now rated).

He had his first run for new connections at Warwick last month – and ran reasonably. I would expect him to come on significantly for the run – and in a race where not many can be fancied – and where he should be handle conditions - he could be worth a small EW play at the available 16/1…

Market Rasen

2:45: Secret Door is a very short priced favourite in this.

I guess it’s a combination of form (which can be interpreted positively) and connections…

If she remains as strong to the off, she will likely win – but there must be a chance she will drift (she just looks too short).

If the stable of Lucinda Russell were in better form, I would fancy Alizee de Janeiro against her.

She bumped into a very well handicapped rival at Kelso last time, but had the rest of the field, well beaten.

I would certainly prefer backing her to place, than the favourite to win – but the stable form is a big concern (Russells stable is almost in as bad a form, as Rebecca Curtis’s stable !).

That said, it’s the only horse Russell sends down from Perth – and Peter Buchanan’s only ride of the day.
The subtle signs are quite positive…

3:30: The guys in the forum will be hoping for a win from Winner Massagot in this – and I think they might be in luck…

The horse needs to win in order to get a weight rise and secure a place in the County hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.

A number of the guys in the forum have backed the horse in a double with Next Sensation – so success today, will keep the dream alive…

In truth, conditions won’t be perfect for Winner Massagot today, as he wants better ground than he is going to get. However, at the moment, the ground at Market Rasen is about as good as there is, so I suspect Alan Kings hand has been forced.

In a way, it might not be a bad thing.

The horse almost certainly won’t perform to his peak – but if he can still win, that should mean he won’t get a massive weight rise.
I would imagine they want around 4lb – which a relatively hard fought win, should achieve.

In terms of rivals, then in truth, I can’t see anything for him to worry about.

Apterix could be dangerous – but the market doesn’t seem overly keen.
If I could guarantee he wouldn’t go odds on, I would make Winner Massagot a Top Pick – but there is a chance that people will pile into him and I don’t want to be putting up odds on shots.

5:00: My concerns over the jockey booking for Heronshaw at Ffos Las, mean that I am quite interested in Brave Buck in this…

Jake Greenhall has seemingly gone to Market Rasen to ride him – when he could have gone to Ffos Las to ride Heronshaw.
I would take that as a positive - and in truth, I can find a few other positives for Brave Buck.

Firstly, we were on him last time at Uttoxeter (so I must have fancied him then !).

More than that he was hammered in the market that day – but ran really poorly.

There was no obvious reason for that poor run – so you would have to be  a forgiving type, to support him today.
That said, he runs from a 4lb lower mark today – and in a lower class of race.

He should have no issue with either trip or ground – so there will likely be worse 8/1 shots out today…

Naas

2:55: This is a cracking little novice handicap  – but a very difficult race in which to form a strong a opinion…

At a price, I am attracted to Captain Von Trappe.

He ran 3 good races in the autumn, before seemingly disappointing on his 3 most recent outings.

However, I don’t think that his 3 most recent runs are quite as bad as they appear.

The first of them was in the grade 1 Drinmore chase, behind No More Heroes; the second was in the Paddy Power chase; and the third of them was in the Grand National trial chase at Punchestown.
He didn’t really feature in the first 2 contests (though they were both high class affairs) – but he ran with credit in the Grand National trial, just running out of steam, after the last.

Todays 2m4f trip will suit him better – and I expect him to get quite a positive ride from Jack Kennedy.

Unfortunately, it’s not a race where you can rule out many of the runners.
Most of them are relatively unexposed and whatever wins, is likely to put in an improved performance to do so.

That said, I think Captain Von Trappe has as good a chance as most – and at a general 16/1, is a reasonable EW price.

4:05: On official ratings, Simply Ned has at least 10lb in hand of all of his rivals today – and in conditions that he should relish, he very much looks the one to beat.

He ran really well at Leopardstown at Christmas, when he was arguably unlucky not to pick up the grade 1 chase, following the fall of Un De Sceauz.
In truth, he’s not a grade 1 performer – but he is a grade 2 performer and this is a grade 2 race !

Better than that for him, most of today rivals aren’t even grade 2 performers…

Twinlight and Days Hotel have both had their moments - but neither can be relied upon to perform, nowadays.

Bright New Dawn is probably Simply Neds biggest rival – but he should be able to take care of him.

Again, he is definitely Top Pick material – but I fear he may go odds on, so I’m gong to resist putting home up (I think he’s even better bet than Winner Massagot though).

4:35: Unzing is the interesting one in this.

I tipped him 3 runs ago, when he ran disappointingly at Limerick.

There was no obvious reason for that, so I left him alone on his penultimate run at Leopardstown.

He was still moving well in that race when he fell around half way.
On his most recent run, he was cut back to 2 miles – which seemed a strange move.
I wasn’t surprised to see him outpaced in that race.

Today he goes up to 3 miles – which is also a strange move (though not as strange as dropping him to 2 miles).

To be honest, we are still learning about the horse, so it impossible to be categoric about this requirements (or his level of ability).

I’ve not seen enough in recent runs to draw me in today though – so with him up against an apparent Tony Martin hot pot (White Arm), I think it is a watching brief (and the hope we learn a bit more).

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.