Daily write-up - Feb 12th

Bangor has been lost to the weather, but there are still 2 NH cards this afternoon: at Kempton and Wetherby.

The Kempton card is pretty good, with 3 or 4 races of interest: however, there is little to recommend the Wetherby card - aside from 1 handicap chase…

As I mentioned in the advance notification this morning, I had another dilemma today with regard to whether I should tip.

For the second day in a row, the horses I was most interested in, literally halved in price over night.

I know this does happen from time to time, but it has been quite extreme over the past couple of days.

It’s my understanding that a few tipsters are now issuing the night before – and with the sensitivity of the early markets, that’s probably all it takes to crush prices.

Clearly it’s not sustainable in the long term (as the bookmakers will just close accounts of those who bet the night before) – but whilst it is happening, it is messing up the prices first thing in the morning.

That said, there is not a lot we can do about it.

There is a chance that some of these horses will drift back out to backable prices – but the bookmakers tend to be very slow at lengthening a horse they have shortened.

There is the option of BF – though realistically, that can often only be used quite close to the off (due to liquidity issues).

As things currently stand, I feel we are sat a bit in the middle ground:
Acting after the best prices have gone – but before any drifts occur.

I’ll consider the options – but I fear that that there is no easy answer !

Anyway, at least you’ve all got my thoughts to work with.

Hopefully there I’ve found a few little nuggets which will enable you to make the day pay – somehow !

Kempton

1:05: Sky Lino is the first of the days ‘overnight steamers’ that I could have been interested in…

He opened up at 7/1 yesterday evening – but 4/1 would have been a challenge at 8:30 this morning…

In truth, that could look a decent price by 1:15 this afternoon – but there is too much guesswork involved with both him – and a number of his rivals - for me to be prepared to play.

In terms of the case for him: then he caught my eye when finishing second at Bangor on his penultimate run. The startling thing about that performance was that he ran loose for about a mile prior to the race – so I fully expected him to fall in a hole late on.

In the circumstances, he ran remarkably well – and as a consequence, he was sent off at just 12/1 in his next race at Cheltenham, when facing one of the current market leaders for the Triumph hurdle (Sceau Royale).

He wasn’t up to that particular task – but todays race represents a massive drop in class.

An initial handicap rating of just 113 looks very fair – and I suspect that if Sky Lino repeats his Bangor run (without the pre-race antics !), he will be very hard to beat…

That said, this is a near impossible race to get a proper handle on.
There are lots of very unexposed horses – and there has to be a chance that one will show significant improvement today.

Gaelic Myth is the ‘outsider’ that interests me most – but not as much as Sky Lino !

2:05: As with Sky Lino, I had a dilemma this morning over whether to tip Always on the Run…

He opened up at 10/1 last night with B365 (8/1 generally) – but it was difficult to beat 5/1 by 8:30 this morning (11/2 in a couple of places).

The difference between him and Sky Lino however, is that I feel I can get a better handle on both his chance – and the chance of most of his rivals.

And whilst 5/1 was a tight price, I felt there still could be some margin in it…

Always on the Run made his debut for Tom George at Warwick on New Years Eve.

He was keen enough in that race (presumably not helped by the fact that he hadn’t run for 6 months) – but still looked likely to win, when he took the third last fence 3 lengths clear.

However, he fell into a hole up the home straight and ultimately could only finish fourth.
He is dropped back half a mile in trip today - and should be a fair bit fitter, with that run under his belt.

He travelled through the race that day, looking like a well handicapped horse.

His jumping, for a novice, was also exemplary – and if he can repeat that this afternoon, I think he will take a bit of beating.

Exmoors Mist is clearly the one to beat – as he is on a steep upward curve.
However, he is also going up the handicap – and faces a better class of rival today, than he has done in his last 2 wins.

It also concerns me a little that he’s not run for 2 months – so there is a chance he might be a little rusty…

Devil to Pay is the other danger: whilst Trojan Star theoretically holds Exmoor Mist on Leicester form (though I suspect Exmoor Mist has improved since then).

His price is certainly short enough now (currently 3/1) – but I do think that he Always on the Run is the one to beat.

3:15: This is a tricky race to solve, as there are question marks over both market leaders – but the 2 outsiders don’t appear quite good enough…

The main issue with Gods Own is the ground: however I also suspect he won’t be fully tuned – and he isn’t well in at the weights with Josses Hill.

If you could be sure Josses Hill was going to jump round cleanly, you could be pretty confident that he would win.

However, his jumping is a real concern (and Kempton takes a bit of jumping).

Aso would be a feasible alternative if the ground were riding very soft – but I suspect it won’t be soft enough to swing things sufficiently in his favour.

Kings Lad has perfect conditions – but really shouldn’t be good enough.

He has to give weight to horses who are comfortably his superior…

In truth, it is probably a watching race (with a particular eye on the market leaders , wit ha view to the Cheltenham festival).
If forced to have a bet, then I would probably go with Aso at the prices – and hope the ground is riding deep !

3:50: If I was confident that the ground at Kempton wouldn’t be to soft, I would have tipped A Good Skin in this.

However, he didn’t get home over 3 miles in soft ground at Wincanton earlier in the season – and I would be fearful that the same thing could happen this afternoon…

Over a slightly shorter trip – or on better ground – then I think he has ticks in enough boxes, to warrant getting involved.

He certainly is well enough handicapped to win a race such as this – and his run on New Years day, means he should be sufficiently fit.

I would also be happy enough taking on market principals, Silver Grove and Ned Stark. The former because he is 6lb higher than when struggling home in a weaker race last time: and the latter, because I don’t think a big field around Kempton, will suit him (though he is handicapped to win).

I could see scenarios where Financial Climate and Wizards Bridge out run their odds – but the one that interests me most, at a price, is Sun Wild Life.

He ran well on his seasonal debut at Exeter, before not handling conditions next time at Fontwell.
He’s edging down the handicap and will have very little weight on his back this afternoon.

His stable isn’t in the best of form – and that’s a worry – but you don’t get many 33/1 shots with ticks in every box !

Wetherby

4:10: this race has been turned over as the ‘race of the day’ in the forum…

I pinned my colours to the Epic Warrior mast, in there - and I do think he’s a reasonable bet at 6/1.

That said, this looks a pretty open race – and no result would come as a major surprise…

On reflection, Goodtoknow has to be of interest – as I suspect he has been targeted at the race.

Certainly if you can forgive his last run, he has every chance.

The other one that warrants a mention is Voyage A New York.
He is very well handicapped - and whilst I would have some doubts about him handling heavy ground, the significant market support this morning, suggests other aren’t quite so worried !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tip Summary

(E) Kempton 2:05 Always on the Run 0.375pt win 5/1