Daily write-up - Feb 26th

There are 2 NH meeting today: at Exeter and Warwick…

And very nice meetings they are too – for a mid week, anyway.

Both put on 2 or 3 races of interest – and finding a tip, was never going to be much of an issue.

More of an issue is gauging the state of the ground.

It’s getting on for a week since we had any significant rain; so ground that was heavy, is now starting to dry out a bit.

In all honesty, I’ve no idea how it will be riding.

The suggestion from the official descriptions and going readings, is that it will be soft (ish).

Time alone will tell…

I’m therefore continuing to tread carefully – but I have got view on a number of the races.

As is invariably the case nowadays, the market will doubtless be the best guide, close to the off.

Hopefully I can point you in the right direction - and you can use the market to help you decide on the final bets.

Here are my thoughts.

Warwick

3:45: As grade 2 contests go, this is a shocker !

It is supposed to be for horses rated 0-150 – but the top weight is only rated 140 (so 10lb shy of the race ceiling).

Renard, the bottom weight, is rated 121 – and with that rating would virtually be able to run in class 4 events !

You would expect far more from a £30K race – the Warwick course executive must be disappointed…

Non of the runners have solid credentials: it says much, the 12 year old Araldur and the novice Deep Trouble (who unseated at Market Rasen as recently as Sunday), are disputing favouritism…

The one to beat in the race, is the other horse disputing favouritism, Howlongisafoot.

That said, he doesn’t set too demanding a standard – and only looks reasonably handicapped, provided you are prepared to view the 7lb claim of Harry Cobden as ‘a gift’.

The horse has fallen and pulled up on its two latest runs – and whilst better can be expected today, you would expect stronger credentials from a 3/1 shot…

I had it in my mind not to tip Renard again, but in the circumstances, I just have to take a risk.

The horses is incredibly well handicapped (over a stone lower in the weights than when I tipped him on his seasonal debut – when I thought he was a cert !) – though he’s been very well handicapped for a few runs, so that’s not the reason.

I also have a feeling that he would prefer softer ground than he’s going to get – so that’s not the reason either !

The reason I’m tipping him, is because he is running over his ideal trip (2m4f) on a course that favours front runners.

He has a natural tendency to front run anyway, but with cheek pieces applied for the first time in ages, I’m pretty sure he will lead today.

I also like the fact that Aiden Coleman is on board.

He could have gone to Exeter (where Venetia has fancied runners), so him being at Warwick instead, strikes me as a positive.

I’m hoping that he will set out to make all – get into a good rhythm – and just draw away from the field.

I didn’t think the horse would get a better chance to win a decent pot that first time up this season - but today looks almost as easy.

I’m sure Venetia will have him spot on – almost as sure Aiden will ride the right race  - so provided the horse retains a modicum of his former ability, he has to go very close.

4:15: This looks as strong a race as the previous one – but has a third of the prize money fund !

There are 3 or 4 horses of definite interest – and I’ve put forward No Duffer, mainly on the grounds of value (which is becoming an increasingly rare commodity !).

The horses hasn’t run for nearly 3 months – and was pulled up quite sharply when he was last seen.

The fitting of a first time tongue tie suggests he may have had a problem that day – and whilst I’m generally not keen to support a horse wearing a tongue tie, I’m prepared to make an exception if the price is big enough (and a solid case can be made).

If you ignore that run (and the tongue tie !), then I think a very solid case can be made for No Duffer.

Having switched from Henry Daly to Tom George, last season, he was steadily progressive.

A win at Stratford was followed by another win at Sandown.

His final 2 runs at Newbury and Cheltenham suggested that maybe the improvement had plateaued – but he has been dropped 7lb since then, and now races off a mark just 1lb higher than when successful at Sandown.

He’s only run twice this season: he was too fresh on his debut at Cheltenham – and was then pulled up last time, at Sandown.

Clearly he needs to bounce back today – but Tom George has his stable in decent form and the horse can run well fresh.

He should also appreciate the better ground he gets today – and is a previous winner at the Warwick track.
Certainly he has ticks in enough boxes to warrant taking a risk at a price…

Of the others: then What a Good Night is interesting, in first time cheek pieces (though I would prefer to see Harry Skelton on board): Farbreaga is interesting on his first run for Harry Whittington; As De Fer is potentially still well handicapped – even off a mark 19lb higher than when successful at this course last time: whilst Leo Luna and Umbeto D’Olivate are both potentially very well handicapped – but have been completely out of form and would need to bounce back.

Like I said, not an easy race to unpick.

However, at a decent price, I think No Duffer is worth a small risk.

Exeter

2:50: Pemba very much looks the one to beat in this – but unfortunately has been priced up accordingly.

A winner of a couple of novice hurdles, her opening handicap mark of 120 looks very fair.

Of course there is a quite a bit of guesswork involved – but non of her rivals look particularly well handicapped, which just adds to her appeal.

She is potential Top Pick material – but as she is already a shade of odds on, I’ll resist.

In truth, I think even money is about right: heads she wins; tails she doesn’t.

It’s probably as simple as that…

3:55: I was half tempted to tip Saroque in this…

Certainly on his fourth in the grade 1 Welsh National, he has a great chance – particularly off a mark 3lb lower.

However, he comes with issues…

Firstly, the ground is not as soft as he would like: secondly, he is unproven over todays marathon trip (even if he looks like he should stay it); and thirdly, he’s had a couple of very hard races in the last couple of months.

More subtly, I would prefer if Aiden Coleman were on board (though that’s a relatively small point).

I could see him leading - and running well to a point – but I’m just not sure whether he will make it home…

In truth, there aren’t that many I can fancy in the race.

Nail M and Alberobello look the 2 most likely – though they are disputing favouritism and neither is rock solid.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see Merlins Wish and Thomas Wild running decent races – but it would be difficult to construct solid cases for them.

I don’t have a strong feeling for any of the others – but I wouldn’t be massively surprised if one of them won.

On balance then, probably a race to watch…

4:25: Milansbar is the one I fancy in this.

He is well enough handicapped on hurdles form and has gradually been getting the hang of things over fences. However, there is minimal margin in a price of 5/2.

I actually think Imagine the Chat could be the best horse in the race – but until Rebecca Curtis comes back into some form, I couldn’t touch anything from her stable.

5:00: The betting suggests this is between Albert Dolivate and Deputy Commander and it’s difficult to argue.

The former has been running well, when most of Robert Walfords horses haven’t; and he quite possibly bumped into one last time at Kempton. He’s gone up 3lb for that run – but that’s probably fair enough, and with the stable possibly finding some form – and Sean Bowen on board for his only ride of the day - I think he’s the one to beat.

Again, he’s potential Top Pick material – but the presence of Deputy Commander has stopped me from putting him up.

He ran OK in a couple of novice events and then shaped with some promise on his handicap debut at Doncaster.
He’s stepped up in trip today – but that should suit him.

I think the winner is likely to come form this pair – but as they dominate the market, that is hardly an earth shattering statement  !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

(E) Warwick 3:45 Renard 0.25pt win 7/1 (pre R4)

(E) Warwick 4:15 No Duffer 0.25pt win 14/1