Review of the day

I really eased off the tipping today, just putting up one selection – and with hindsight, that was a mistake…

I had 4 on my list of ‘possibles’: Headleys Bridge, Count Guido Diero, Top Gamble & Affaire D’Honour, so it was maybe sods law, that I chose to just go with the ‘wrong’ one.

They were differing reasons why I opted not to tip the other 3 - but suffice to say, if I’d stuck to my long list, we would have had a much better day ! (officially speaking).

In terms of how they ran:

Headleys Bridge ran a little better than the final result implied: but he jumped big at a lot of the fences – and I suspect that even if he’d been on his ‘A’ game, he would have been no match for Taquin Du Seuil.

A former Grade 1 winner, he bounced right backed to form and routed the field.

He’ll doubtless be back in graded company next time – and on heavy ground, will be a tough opponent for anything.

Count Guido Diero was a game winner of the handicap hurdle at Newbury.

If I could have been sure he would get an uncontested lead, I would probably have taken a risk on him.

However, too many times I see races pan out differently to my expectations.

Not with this one however, as he was left alone upfront - and his amateur jockey judged the fractions perfectly to win going away…

As I said this morning, I also got very close to tipping Top Gamble.
My main issue with him, was that I missed the price.

I was waiting for Lami Surge to be declared a non runner – but instead I should have just tipped Top Gamble with him in the race and accepted the R4 deduction.

Waiting until 11:00 meant he was only available at 5/2 – and having been double that last night, it felt too short (particularly as the argument for him was based on Dodging Bullets under performing).

Ofcourse, by the off, 5/2 looked a crazily generous price as he went off 11/10 and won as he liked.
I think it’s fair to say that Dodging Bullets needed the run.

I got a lot right in Betfair hurdle as well – but again chose not to tip in the race.

In truth, whether I would ever have tipped the winner, Agrapart is debatable – but he was certainly on my shortlist.

Also on my short list were Flying Angel and Affair D’Honneur – and they finished third and fourth.

The former was 66/1 this morning, so maybe one or two of you took an EW chance at that price.

The final race of interest at Newbury was the Denman chase.

I really didn’t have a strong feel for it – and whilst in one way it was a shock to see Houblon Des Obeaux take the race apart – in another, it wasn’t.

There was always a chance that something was going to bounce back to its best and do exactly what he did.

He finished second to Coneygree in the equivalent race last season – and the first time check pieces saw him produce a similar level of form today.

His handicap rating will doubtless go back to where it was as a consequence – which has to be considered an opportunity missed.

Back over at Warwick, Jessbers Dream would probably have won the mares hurdle but for a shuddering mistake at the last.

That enabled Flute Bowl to sail on by, with Jennies Dream just staying on for third (the trip looked too short for her).

The finish of the handicap hurdle looked sure to be fought out by Saint Johns Wood and Letsbeso (the two that I was interested in this morning) but then Extreme Impact conjured up a run from nowhere and nailed them both in the shadows of the post.

Over at Gowran, Smashing led from pillar to post to record a comfortable victory in the Red Mills chase.

He won so easily, his ability to stay a proper 2m4f  test wasn’t really tested.

I doubt that will be the case if he takes up his Ryanair engagement at Cheltenham.

Finally, Skellig Rock ran no kind of a race in the handicap hurdle.
That was disappointing considering how well he had run on his previous outing.

Maybe he didn’t stay the 2m4f trip…

TVB