Daily write-up - Feb 19th

There are 2 NH meetings today (probably): at Sandown and Fakenham.

As I write this, Fakenham has still to pass a second inspection – and the course executive will be hoping it does, with Victoria Pendleton due to make her fencing debut under rules, in the hunter chase at 4:10.

I don’t know about you guys, but I can barely contain my excitement, at the prospect…

This said, by far the best racing today, takes place at Sandown.

There is a 7 race card – and the going on the chase course at least, looks like it might be reasonable.

Fingers crossed on that score.

There is just one tip on the day – but a few mentions to go with it.

Here are my thoughts…

Sandown

1:40: Fingers Crossed is the one that interests me most in this.

He finished fourth on his belated seasonal debut at Wetherby, in the middle of last month.

That was a decent run – and his handicap mark is unchanged, following it.

He really should run well this afternoon – though there is a niggling doubt that he didn’t go on, after a good reappearance run last season…

There are also a few dangerous ones in against him, so it would be difficult to be confident about his chances.

That said, at 15/2, I wouldn’t put off anyone having a small play on him.

2:10: This is a real puzzle – and extremely difficult to unravel.

The fascinating one is Legal Exit. Formerly trained in Ireland by Jim Culloty, he looked like he might make up into a very decent horse, but it just didn’t happen.

He is now with Tom Lacey and made his debut for him in a fair novice chase at Doncaster last month.

He was a bit disappointing that day, even allowing for the fact that he was tackling good quality opposition.

As a result of that run, the British handicapper has given him a chasing mark of 125 – and based on his reputation in Ireland, that looks lenient.
That said, based on his run at Doncaster, it looks harsh – so you pay you money and make your choice !

With Lacey boasting a seriously impressive strike rate - and Dickie Johnson in the saddle – quite a few punters have clearly decide that they want to be with him.

I can fully understand that choice – and at any sort of a price, I might well have joined them.

However, there is a lot of speciation involved - and 3/1 is a pretty tight price in the circumstances…

This is another one of those races, where I expect the market to polarise.

There will be some horses with a chance - and others with no chance.

You need to make sure you are with one from the ‘right’ camp.

Favourite Blanfords Gunner, has a chance - but again, I think 3/1 is tight enough.

The Clock Leary also has a chance – and 8/1 is an acceptable price – you just have to hope that the cheek pieces and the drop in trip have the desired effect.

I think Bodega has a chance - and possibly Minella Definitely – but I wouldn’t want to cast my net any further than that…

If Legal Exit remains well backed (and I think he will), he is the one to beat: If there is going to be an ‘upset’, then The Clock Leary is most likely to cause it…

3:20: Based on official ratings, then Jennys Surprise is very much the one to beat in this.

Officially, she is rated just 1lb below the best horse in the race – and yet receives at least 7lb from all of her rivals.

She is also in good form – so has ticks in a lot of boxes.

However, I suspect that solving this particular race, won’t be quite so simple as looking at official ratings…

The Royal Artillery Gold Cup has a lot of prestige within military cirlces.

You can almost guarantee that one or two of the horses, will have be bought/trained specifically to win this race.
Jockeyship is also a huge factor. You won’t see many races where there is such a range of abilities in the saddle: a decent jockey will count for plenty, both during the race and at the finish.

It is consequently a race which is probably best watched – though the 2 I’m most interested in are Cowards Close and Clonbanan Lad.
The former won this race 12 months ago – and though he’s shown little since, is now trained by Chris Gordon (whose stable is in good form) and the horse looks like the has been targeted at a repeat.

The ex. Irish Clonbanan Lad made his debut for new connections in a hunter chase at Warwick last month and ran with real promise.

Interestingly, his jockey, Jody Sole, rode Cowards Close to victory 12 months ago.

The fact he is now on board Clonbaban Lad suggests he could be the one to beat…

4:20: I could be really keen on the chance of Bertie Boru in this, if it weren’t for one thing – he struggles to jump !

I tipped him first time out this season at Wincanton, and his jumping let him down that day.

He didn’t fall, but he clouted plenty of the fences and in the circumstances, did well to finish sixth.

I didn’t bother with him next time, when he ran at Sandown – and he nearly made me pay for that.

Again his jumping wasn’t great – but he was still moving with menace entering the home straight.

Ultimately he had too much to do, but a staying on fourth (beaten just 5 lengths) was a very good performance.
Bertie Borus most recent run was in the Welsh National at Chepstow – but he never featured in that race and was pulled up.

The handicapper has dropped him 2lb as a result of that – and he now gets to run off a mark of just 130.

He won off a mark of 129 at Newbury last season – and ran second to Unioniste over todays course and distance, off a mark 6lb higher.
There can be little doubt that he is handicapped to win todays race.

Hopefully, A few people will be put off by the fact that Dickie Johnson rides Beg to Differ in preference to him.

However, when you look at Bertie Borus record, it seems quite clear that he performs better for Tom O’Brien.

In a way, I can understand that. Dickie is the kind of jockey who makes up a horses mind – and I’m not sure that would suit a ‘thinker’ like Bertie Boru.

In terms of dangers, then I think there are 22 of them.
They are black – and made of sticks and birch !

If Bertie Boru can negotiate them all cleanly, I think he’ll win.

If he hits a few, then things might get a bit tricky !!

Fakenham

3:05: This is the only race of real interest on the Fakenham card, and I think it can go the way of Kings Cross.

He won really well on his UK chasing debut at Lingfield, 4 runs ago – and has run well enough on 2 of his 3 subsequent outings.

Last time in particular, he put up a good performance to finish third to Johnny Og at Ascot and a repeat of that run will see him go very close this afternoon.

The main issues with him are the fact that Fakenham tends to best suit front runners - and Kings Cross is a hold up horse.
Other than that, it’s just the price. 4/1 is tight enough in a race which might not be run to suit – and where 3 or 4 of his rivals, can be given a reasonable chance…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

(E) Sandown 4:20 Bertie Boru 0.375pt win 7/1