Daily write-up - Feb 14th

Exeter survived an early morning inspection and they race there this afternoon – and at Navan in Ireland.

They are a couple of nice cards as well – and ordinarily I wouldn’t expect there to be much issue finding a tip or two.

However, these aren’t ordinary times !

In addition to doubts over almost every fixture – and uncertainty over the state of the ground – we are also faced with rafts of non runners…

Horses are being double and triple declared by connections, desperate to get a run into them – and clearly they aren’t going to take up every engagement !

There are already 15 non runners at Exeter today – 4 in the big race – and it makes trying to sort things out very difficult indeed…

You could question the wisdom of getting involved at all, at the moment – but these conditions have been with us for over 2 months now, so in a 5 month season, that could result in quite a big service gap !

I prefer to prefer to think of it as an extra layer of the challenge – well, it would be boring if it were too easy, wouldn’t it ?!?!?

Here are my thoughts on the day… 

Exeter

2:40: I find it quite amusing (my sense of humour is questionable !) that the original 2/7 favourite, Beveur Dair is a non runner in this – and as a result, there is new 2/7 favourite for the race in the shape of Politologue.

You can’t beat a bit of competitive racing !!

3:10: It’s no surprise to see the 4 relatively unexposed horses, heading the market in this.

It’s difficult to see the race being won by anything other that Scoop the Pot, Unowhatimeanharry, West approach or The Eaglehaslanded – but it’s not quite so easy to choose between the quartet.

It’s likely to come down to which one best handles the conditions and my feeling is that Scoop the Pot will be the one to beat.

He finished behind Unowhaimeanharry at Cheltenham in November – but a 10lb weight turnaround and a longer trip, could well see a different outcome this afternoon.

West Approach is the interesting one – and I would have taken a risk on him at last nights prices. However the market is now wise to him and there is little margin in a quote of 7/1.

In fairness, he’s still got quite a lot to prove – but a rating of just 125 could seriously under-estimate him, whilst the booking of Dickie Johnson is eye catching…

The only other one of interest in the race, is Goodbye Dancer.

With a straight bet, he actually sets a decent standard – however, I’ll be a little surprised if at least one of the first 4 mentioned doesn’t prove better handicapped than him.

There’s an argument that he could be a reasonable EW bet – but the profit on that if he gets placed, doesn’t really seem to justify the risk.

3:40: I think Midnight Prayer is the right favourite in this – but I also think that 13/8 is too short a price…

His last time out fourth in the Classic chase at Warwick, is very good form – and even from a 4lb higher mark, I would expect him to go very well today.

In fact, his trainer Alan King is desperate for him to go very well – as he is hoping the handicapper will raise the horse a few pounds, thereby all but guaranteeing him a place in the Grand National field.

The booking of Richard Johnson really tells you everything you need to know connections intentions…

The question is whether it is worth taking him on – and on balance, I think it is…

The 2 I’m opting for are Howards Legacy and Victors Serenade:

The case for the former is quite straightforward.

He will have perfect conditions and is now down to a mark just 1lb higher than when won on his seasonal debut at Bangor, last season.

He comfortably beat Bob Ford that day – and if in the same form this afternoon, will take the beating.

It’s a slight concern that Aiden Coleman is on Venetias other runner, Shangani – though I’m not going to read too much into that (Venetia and jockeys is a very tricky area to second guess !).

What I am going to read something into, is the application of cheek pieces for the first time.

Venetia deployed the same tactic on Houblon Des Obeaux yesterday and the effect was startling. If they wake up Howards Legacy in the same way, the others won’t see which way he’s gone !

The other one I want onside, is Victors Serenade.
I tipped him first time out this season at Chepstow – but he ran no sort of a race.

Unfortunately, that’s the way with him – he either wins or he runs a shocker.

In truth, there has been far more of the latter than the former recently - but he is now below his last winning mark and will have perfect conditions.

He is also a horse who performs at his best after a break – so the 71 day absence is a positive.

You can make a case of sorts for the other 3 in the field – but at the prices, I’m happy to side with Howards Legacy and Victors Serenade to upset Midnight Prayer.

Navan

2:30: It will be good to see Ttebbob back on the track this afternoon.

I’ve no idea what happened to him last time. Yes, he was facing Douvan – but he just wasn’t the same horse that had blitzed his rivals in his 2 earlier races this season.

Maybe he needs a long gap between races. His run at Leopardstown came just 13 days after his previous outing at Navan – and it’s not unusual for horses who run like he does (flat out !) to need some time between outings.
I would expect him to come home unchallenged today – and if anything is going to give Douvan a race in the Arkle at Cheltenham, I still think it could be him.. (he’s a best price 40/1, with Sky bet)

3:00: I did consider taking a risk on Snow Falcon in this…

His form isn’t that far behind the principals – but also, he might get an uncontested lead.
That could make him very interesting indeed – particularly if the Gigginstown horses opt to play cat and mouse, in an attempt to be top dog ! (to use a few animal analogies !).

I certainly think there is a chance that Bryan Cooper and Davy Russell will be intent on watching each other, thereby leaving the way open for some enterprising jockeyship (queue Sean Flanagan).

If that doesn’t happen however, then it’s a tricky race to call…

It seems significant that Cooper has opted for Dedigout, when presumably he had the choice of the 3 Gigginstown horses.

I would certainly be wary of taking a short price on Prince of Scars, as he looks a bit of a quirky individual.

3:30: I also considered taking a risk on Owennacurra Milan in this – but it’s a near impossible race to fathom.

Quite a few of the field are best known as chasers – with Josies Orders and Quantitativeeasing best known for their exploits in the cross country field.

They, plus Mad Brian, No Secrets and Nickname Exit, are much better handicapped over hurdles than they are over the bigger obstacles – but generally, that is because they are much better at jumping fences, than they are jumping hurdles.

That said, if things did click, any one of them could be very dangerous…

Consequently, if I had tipped Ownenacurra Milan, it would have been EW – but I just felt there was a bit too much uncertainty.

It’s interesting to see that he’s been backed this morning, however.

A general 16/1 early is a general 12/1 now.

Maybe others are viewing things in a similar way to me – or maybe connections know something ;)

4:00: The defection of Monksland has taken away a lot of the interest of this race.
I did think that we might find out how good Black Hercules is – but there is a chance he won’t now be properly tested.

Ofcourse, he may well have been up to the test of Monksland regardless – and there is a chance that one or two of his remaining rivals will be able to push him – but we knew where we stood with Monksland, so his absence is a blow.

Noble Endeavour and Sub Lieutenant look the ones most likely to give Black Hercules a race – but neither of them is as good as Monksland, so you have to think they are likely to end up playing second fiddle to Black Hercules.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Tip Summary

(L) Exeter 3:40 Howards Legacy 0.25pt win 15/2

(L) Exeter 3:40 Victors serenade 0.125pt win 11/1