Wednesday 17 February 2016

Daily write-up - Feb 16th

I had planned to take today off – however, I had also planned to tip Bold Sir Brian, the next time he ran – and I can’t do both !

If the price hadn’t been there – or the race had looked too strong, I would have let him go – but at 9/2 in a class 4 handicap, he has to be worth a risk…

To be honest, I’m surprised that more people haven’t picked up on him. Yes, his recent form figures are uninspiring – but they need to be looked at in context.

First time out this season, he finished down the field in the grade 3 fixed brush hurdle final at Haydock.
Considering he hadn’t seen a racecourse for nearly 12 months, I thought that was a perfectly adequate run – and I was quite keen to tip him next time out, on the back of it.
However, the weather intervened. He was declared for a number of races around Christmas time (including Wetherby on Boxing day, when I would have tipped him) – but they were all abandoned.
Consequently it was the end of January before he was able to run again – a full 2 months after his seasonal debut.
That was in a decent class 3 event at Haydock and I suspect he still needed the run. H travelled nicely in the race, but was just starting to feel the pinch when he fell at the third last hurdle.
Maybe that was a blessing, as it saved him from being subjected to a very hard race in very heavy ground.
I would expect him to be spot on today after those 2 runs, so we should get to see how much of his former ability remains.
And if just a modicum does, then I think he will take some beating this afternoon.
At his peak, Bold Sir Brian was rated 155 over fences – and he was competitive from that rating.
However, his jumping was always slightly flawed and a crashing fall at Cheltenham in January 3 years ago, seemed to badly affect him.
He’s not been the same horse since then – and in truth, there is a question over how much of his former ability remains.
He has now dropped to a mark of 120 – and based on his 2 runs this season, I think that is too low.
We should get to find out this afternoon, either way.
I think he will be spot on for todays outing – and if he is, and if my reading of him is right - then I hope he will prove different class to his rivals.

0.5pt win Bold Sir Brian 9/2


TVB

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