Daily write-up - Feb 3rd

There are 4 NH meetings today, at Ludlow, Leicester and Newcastle in England – plus Down Royal in Northern Ireland.

With so much racing, I expected to find a tip or two – or at very least a few solid mentions – but that’s not really the case…

It’s definitely a case of quantity over quality – so much so, that I considered taking the day off !

However, I only considered doing that after I’d studied the form, and by that point the majority of the work had been done.

I figured spending half an hour writing up some brief thoughts wasn’t too much of  a hardship – so my day off will have to wait !

You will doubtless notice that I’ve slightly tweaked the style of the write-up today.

The change is in response to some feedback that I received from one of the Info guys – but it’s consistent with the direction in which I want to move (to make the write-up easier to use).

Any comments on the change – or indeed, any suggestions for others changes, are always welcome…

With regard to today, then there was nothing of significant interest at either Newcastle or Down Royal – so my thoughts are limited to a few races at Leicester and Ludlow…

Leicester

3:00: I’m a bit surprised that April Dusk isn’t favourite for this.

I was quite impressed by him last time at Uttoxeter, when he won, despite doing a lot wrong.

He got a 6lb rise for that win – but I can’t see that stopping him: and he is the only ride on the card for Gavin Sheehan.

I really would have expect him to be favourite – so I have to be concerned about Lessons in Milan.

Unfortunately he’s impossible to get a handle on: an unexposed horse form the Nicky Henderson stable.

I suspect that ultimately, the market will sort this one out. If Lessons in Milan is weak in the betting, I think April Dusk will win.

If Lessons in Milan remains strong, April Dusk might have bumped into one…

3:35: Lower hope Dandy has made his way to the top of the market in this – and I think that is probably right.

He was well backed on his delayed seasonal debut at Newbury – and whilst no match for One Track Mind, he ran a fair enough race.

He has been dropped 2lb for that run – and he isn’t up against anything of One Track Minds class, today.

I’ll be interested to see how Pilgrims Bay faces the Leicester hill – and suspect that Milord is the bigger danger.

The question is whether Lower Hope Dandy represents any value at 3/1.

If he does, I think it is minimal…

4:10: Ballyrath is an uneasy favourite in this – and I think that is right…

He is running today under a penalty, after an easy win last time – but I think he might struggle.

Cernunnos is the one I would be most inclined to take him on with – and he is a reasonable bet at 4/1.

That said, I would be a little fearful of the other 3 in the race: Walk in the Mill is the obvious  one – but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Thedrinkymeister bounce back to form.

All in all, quite a tough race to work out…

Ludlow

2:45: This is probably the most interesting race of the day – but it’s nearly impossible to figure out…

I was actually most interested in How about It – but he’s now a NR.

In his absence his stablemate, Carningli, is the one I’m most attracted to – but there is a lot of guesswork…

Another Hero is the right favourite – but Jonjos has had so few runners recently there is quite a risk involved in supporting him.

Belmount is handicapped to go very close – but his jumping has been poor on his last 3 runs.

On balance, I think it has to be a watching race…

3:55: If I had issued a tip today, it would probably have been Kerryhead Storm…

We were on him last time out at Leicester – but he was a big disappointment.

I felt he was a very good bet that day – but having been hassled for the lead early, he dropped out.

He’s been dropped 2lb for that run – but that won’t make a lot of difference.
In order to support him today, I would have needed a good explanation (or at least, theory !) for the poor last run – and I don’t have one.

Interestingly, he was 8/1 early today –and 9/2 as I type this.

Last time, he was notably weak in the 5 mins before the off.

I don’t associate the Sheppard yard with big punts – but maybe I’m wrong…

Of the others: Lemons Gent is potentially interesting: as in Agincourt Reef – however both are quite risky.

Zama Zama probably sets the standard -  but I think it is surpassable.

If Kerryhead Storm remains strong in the betting –and gets an uncontested lead, I think he could well come home in front.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.