Daily write-up - Feb 7th

There are just the 2 NH meetings today: at Musselburgh in Scotland and Naas is Ireland.

It’s Cheltenham trials day at Musselburgh and the course has put on an impressive card, with some serious prize money (in excess of £150k).

More than that, the races will be run on decent ground – certainly far better than has generally been the case for the past couple of months.

The course executive have been rewarded for their efforts, with some very strong fields – though the novice events are generally under-subscribed (which is a little baffling).

It was quite tempting to tip in a couple of the Musselburgh races – but the big prize money and quick ground make perfect conditions for horses to be targeted.

My general advice would be to watch for the late money.

The races are well worth winning – and not all of the runner will relish the conditions (quick ground: sharp track).

Here are my thoughts on some of the races – including one very interesting one at Naas…

Musselburgh

1:00: Simon Squirrel is just about the form pick in this, so I’m a little surprised he is available this morning as big as 7/1…

True he is taking on a couple of horses with potential – but he’s hardly exposed himself and should certainly appreciate the conditions.

You couldn’t write-off any of the runners with complete confidence – and significant money for either Brain Power or Always Resolute would likely see them home in front.

However with no knowledge of market movements, Simon Squirrel looks a fair play – possibly EW, provided the dead 8 remain in the race.

1:30: My Brother Sylvest could have been very interesting in this - if it weren’t for the presence of The Grey Taylor.

Both of them like to front run – and whilst My Brother Sylvest will likely win the early battle, there has to be a chance he’ll need to go too quickly, in order to do so.

Aside from that, the case for him is quite strong.

He’s been running on unsuitably soft ground all season – and as a result, his handicap mark has fallen sharply.

Today he gets to run on quick ground and at a sharp track – I expect to see him put up a much improved performance.

I guess if I have one concern (aside from the potential pace battle), it’s that he’s been on the go for a long time. If he had arrived today on the back of a significant absence (50 days plus), I think I would have tipped him.

The race doesn’t seem to have a lot of depth, so I think it is there for the taking.

Full Shift obviously demands respect - but I really wouldn’t have thought todays trip/ground were what he wanted.

And whilst Got the Nac could be anything, he’s been priced up as if he’s something (and that is yet to be proven)

My feeling is that the race is most likely to be won by either My Brother Sylvest or The Grey Taylor – depending on which one comes out best in the early pace battle; with Quitoe de Tresor possibly staying on late to grab a place.

3:00: The Scottish champion hurdle is the big race of the day and needless to say, I was drawn to Vendor.

We have been following him all season – and I’m sure he has another race in him this campaign.

However, I’m not sure it will be this one – as whilst the 2 mile trip will suit him better than the 2m4f he raced over last time: the sharp track and quick ground are likely to make it just too much of a speed test for him.

I think he is likely to sit behind Aristo Du Plessis early – but I can see him being swamped for pace close home.

Hopefully he will get a couple of pounds drop as a result – and we can take a look at him again, next time.

In terms of today race, then Aristo Du Plessis clearly sets the standard - the question is whether anything can surpass it…

If he is to get beaten, then Shrewd looks the most likely.

He ran well in a tough race at the track, last time – and the booking of Irish apprentice, Shane Shortall is very eye catching.

Pearl Castle and Zaiydan filled the paces behind Aristo Du Plessis on New years day and whilst both have a theoretical chance of reversing the form at the revised weights, I somehow doubt they will.

The Henderson runners (Days of Heaven and Cardinal Water) are theoretically interesting: the market near the off will likely advise on their chances.

Whilst at a price, Mango Cap could be anything – and is another to keep an eye on.

On balance though, I suspect Aristo Du Plessis is most likely to go from the front and not get passed…

4:30: This looks a race to avoid – with the money for Cup Final appearing very significant.
Certainly he is a horse who could be far better than his current rating of 132 – and if connections have him right today, I suspect he will win.

That said, taking 6/4 in a race like this without any inside knowledge would  be madness – and even with inside knowledge, it would be questionable !
Cup Final was sent off a similar price in a similar race on his seasonal debut 12 months ago – and could only finish third. That should provide sufficient warning for anyone considering getting involved with him…

There are plenty of horses in the race who I could see running well – but no real standout alternative.

I’d offer Warrior Tale, Sky Khan and Unanimite as possibles – but would probably recommend resisting the temptation to get involved.

Naas

3:20: I’m sorely tempted to tip Peoples Park in this – now that My Hometown has been declared a non runner.

When I looked at the race, I was baffled as to why Mark Walsh was on My Hometown, when Peoples Park seemed to have much better form – but second guessing J P McManus is a dangerous game.
The defection of My Hometown leaves the way open for Walsh to switch to Peoples Park – and if that happens, I suspect he will be very well backed – and likely win !

The trouble is, there is quite a lot of speculation in my theory – and I’m not sure I should be tipping based on that (particularly as the odds aren’t that great).

Also, there is the presence of Unzing in the race.
I tipped him on his penultimate run, when he was disappointing.
He fell on his most recent run, when still moving nicely in mid division. The drop back to 2 miles today seems a slight strange move – so I will watch his performance with interest.

Treat Yourself seems to set the standard for the race – and whist he’s a fair enough performer that standard is surmountable.

If JP fancies going for it with Peoples Park, this is a very winnable race…

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved today.

TVB.