Daily write-up - Feb 24th

Following the abandonment of Ludlow, there is just one NH meeting today, at Doncaster…

You have to laugh: after months of incessant rain, we finally get a couple of dry days. The ground starts to improve – and then temperatures drop and the frost comes !

Don’t you just love British winters ?!?!

I really didn’t think that either of todays meetings were in much danger (despite the scheduled inspections) – but I was wrong, and following a second inspection, Ludlow was abandoned due to small areas of the track remaining frozen.

Disappointing stuff  - but as has been the case for the past couple of months – there is absolutely nothing we can do about it….

Doncaster host a fair meeting, with a couple of interesting races and I was optimistic that I would be able to find a tip or two,

However, as so often happens, the market has picked up on the horses I was most interested in and now margins are tight.

That said, I’m sure margins can get a whole lot tighter, so I’ve decided to take a small risk anyway – safe in the knowledge that at least the market agrees !

The proposed TVB day at the races, has received a reasonable response.

So far, the preferred venue appears to be Uttoxeter – but I’ll leave the forum thread open for comments for a few more days, before committing to anything.

If you could be interested (in either Uttoxeter or Newbury), then please register your interest on the thread.

Back to today – and my thoughts on the main 2 races on the Doncaster card…

Doncaster

3:00: When I first looked at this race yesterday, I thought Fingerontheswitch looked a near certainty…

He was a 5/1 shot on the opening show, so I was also hopeful I would be able to tip him.
However, as the evening progressed, the price got shorter - and I became less convinced that he was the sure thing I first thought.

You will now struggle to beat 2/1 – and I honestly think that is too short.

Don’t get me wrong, I still think he’s the most likely winner of the race – but I can see 3 or 4 horses who I think are real dangers (or at least could be, with market support).

Forth Worth and Nightline are possibly the 2 most interesting.

Fort Worth hasn’t been seen for nearly 3 months – whilst it is 4 months since Nightline last ran – consequently there is a question mark over their fitness.

However, I suspect that both have been saved for the better ground – so if they are ready to go today, I would expect them to run very well.

Crosspark and Mount Haven are different in so much as they have run recently – but haven’t been at their best, again, probably due to the heavy ground.

Crosspark was a big disappointment last time; and whilst Mount Haven won – he didn’t do so as impressively as you would have liked.

I would expect both to put in improved showings today – and think that their current prices underestimate their chances (at least of placing).

Ultimately, its a race which I felt I had to leave alone (officially speaking).

Fingerontheswitch could be much better than a 123 rated animal – he should improve for todays better ground – and the market suggests he is very well fancied by connections.

As I said, he is the most likely winner…

However, from his perspective, I would be fearful of strong market support for either Nightline or Fort Worth, as both of them also have significant potential.

In terms of bets, then Crosspark and Mount Haven EW, at around 14/1, look the best way to play it.
If either one is placed, you will almost recover all of your stake – and there is the possibility of a win bonus, as well !!

3:30: I think that Godsmejudge, Night in Milan and Grandads Horse are the 3 to concentrate on in this…

All 3 will relish todays decent ground – which won’t be the case for all of the runners.

Godsmejudge is probably the one to beat, on the back of a much improved last time out run behind Ziga Boy.

That one has gone on to frank the form in no uncertain terms - and off the same mark today, Godsmejudge looks sure to run well.

My slight niggle with him, concerns todays trip… I think 3 miles is a bare minimum for him – and whilst I expect him to be staying on at the death, there is a chance that the winner will have flown by then.

Based on course and distance form from December of last season, there is absolutely nothing between Grandads Horse and Night in Milan.

When they met on that occasion, Grandads Horse came out on top by a head – and the weighs are exactly the same today.
Interestingly, they are both 5lb lower than they were that day – so they clearly have decent chances.

The better ground today will also suit them both – so there are ticks in plenty of boxes.

Choosing between them isn’t easy – but I just feel that Grandads Horse is coming to the boil (he is having just his third run of the season today); whilst Night in Milan has been on the go for a while (today is his seventh run of the season).
Price is also a factor, with Granddads Horse 2 points bigger in the betting (he was actually as big as 14/1 yesterday evening – but I have to get over that !).

I’m happy to take on the rest of the field, for various reasons – so in the circumstances, feel that Grandads Horse is still just about worth tipping.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

(E) Doncaster 3:30 Grandads Horse 0.25pt win 7/1