Daily write-up - Feb 18th

There are 4 NH meetings today: at Leicester, Kelso and Fontwell in the UK – plus Clonmel in Ireland.

I’m genuinely amazed that all 4 will be taking place.

There was heavy rain over most of the country yesterday, with 13mm and 15mm falling at Leicester and Fontwell, respectively.

I felt sure that would be enough to tip them over the edge – but no, both survived.

I can only imagine what the ground will be like – and with race distances being altered in many of the races, in order to find ‘better’ ground, the racing does feel like it’s a bit of a lottery…

Ante-post betting feels like a bit of a lottery at the moment as well.

The defection of Faugheen from the Champion hurdle yesterday was as a big a shock to me, as when it was announced that Gaye Brief wouldn’t be defending his hurdling crown in 1984.

Where have those 32 years gone ?!

Ofcourse, the race is now much more interesting as a betting heat - but it’s always a shame when one of the big boys misses the gig…

With regard to today, then I have previewed a few of the races, as normal – but my advice would be to take things very easy.

As I’ve said before, when the ground is this deep, the form book is of little use.
It’s about which horse handles the conditions best – and generally, you won’t know that until it’s too late.

Despite this, I’ve decided to issue one tip on the day. Obviously it’s risky – and consequently I’ve kept stakes small – but I just have a feeling that the horse is going to win, and I want it to be more than just a winning mention …

Here’s the rationale for the tip – and thoughts on some of the other UK races…

Leicester

2:10: Gallic Warrior won well enough at Taunton last time, but I wouldn’t be rushing to back him at even money, to follow up off a 7lb higher mark, this afternoon…

Both Seranwen and Gold Ingot make more appeal at the respective prices (4/1 and 5/1).

The former was in front and still travelling nicely, when falling in the Taunton race won by Gallic Warrior; whilst the latter is well handicapped and should be suited by the drop back to 2 miles today…

It’s difficult to fancy the other 2 based on form in the book – but in the conditions, anything could happen !

If forced to have a bet, I would side with Seranwen, to get revenge on Gallic Warrior…

3:55: This is the most valuable race on the Leicester card – but despite a superficially strong 8 runner field, it looks a 2 horse race.

Stiletto was travelling like the winner when coming down 4 out, last time at Wincanton.

His mark remains unchanged – and if his jumping holds up today, he is clearly the one to beat.

That said, he doesn’t look the most straightforward of types – and certainly isn’t one to be piling into at 5/4…

The other one of interest, is Prideofthecastle.

He won well over this course a fortnight ago and must have every chance of following up off just a 3lb higher mark – particularly as David Noonan replaces Tom Scudamore and claims 5lb.

The issue with him, is the potential ‘bounce factor’. His last time out win was on the back of an 18 month absence – and he had quite a hard race – which is a classic ‘bounce’ profile.

The trouble is, outside those 2, nothing really has the profile of a potential winner…

The exception is maybe Vivaccio.

He’s back down to his last winning mark and should be able to handle heavy ground.

However his ability to cope with a step up to 2m4f is not guaranteed – and the heavy ground is likely to make this a real stamina test.

On balance, I’d probably go with Prideofthecastle and hope that he shows no ill effects from his last time out win.

5:00: Some Finish is the interesting one in this.

Superficially he looks to have little chance, having pulled up on his last 2 runs – but the form figures don’t tell the story, for his most recent run…
That was at Uttoxeter over a 3 mile trip and on heavy ground.
He was wearing a fist time visor that day and went off really hard.

He had just about all of the field in trouble down the back straight second time round – and traded 1.9 in running.

However, he had clearly done too much and was a spent force up the straight.

He was pulled up before the third last that day – but was in good company, as only the winner actually finished the race.

He was third last ‘man standing’ – so it really wasn’t too bad an effort.

He’s been dropped 8lb for that run – drops a class, from 4 to 5 – and most importantly, drops half a mile in distance.

It’s a very poor race – and yet he carries just 10st 5lb.

I think there are strong reasons for thinking he’s a good bit better than it appears.

My only issue is with his price.

He opened at 14/1 last night – but we now can’t beat 6/1.

That’s disappointing – but I suspect it is much nearer to the mark – and I’m going to take a small risk on him.

Kelso

3:05: Unioniste was an official ‘eye catcher’ a couple of weeks ago – and he runs for the first time since then, in this race.

My intention will be to high light the official eye catchers in their 3 runs following their ‘eye catching’ effort – and give my thoughts on their chances…

Clearly Unioniste has a good chance in this (as odds of 11/10 would imply !) – however I wouldn’t be interested in backing him…

Firstly, I think the 3m2f trip on very heavy ground will stretch him.

He can handle the ground – and he can probably stay the trip – but the combination would worry me.

He is also taking on a real street fighter in the shape of Soll - he really only gets going, when the going gets tough…

The other 2 in the race should be outclassed – although Neptune Equester will revel in the conditions; and Corrin Wood has a fair bit of back class.

In short, I think it has to be a watching brief with Unioniste – who could well end up in more of a battle than he would want…

3:40: Shades of Midnight is the one that interests me most in this – so it’s disappointing to see that he has made his way to the top of the market.

He has run well on both of his most recent outings at Haydock and there is no reason why he won’t do the same, this afternoon.

However, I doubt I would have tipped him at the 5/1 available last night – so there is no chance at the current 7/2.

That doesn’t mean to say I don’t think he has a good chance – I do: however, he faces plenty of rivals who are difficult to quantify – and that makes judging his chances, quite tricky.

Fontwell

2:55: I was hoping I might find a route into this race, but I’m struggling to do so…

Cloudy Beach was the one that initially caught my eye. He has his second run over fences today, having shown a bit, in a much better race at Sandown, back in December.

He drops in class today – and in trip – and it would be no surprise to see him come good.

However, 4/1 leaves very little margin for error – considering his long absence and the fact that he finished quite weakly, last time…

If he was backed late, I would probably take the hint - but I think market confidence would be required, before supporting him…

I would expect Goring Two to try and make all – but he is going to find it more difficult to dominate this better field than he did when successful over course and distance, last time out.

Agincourt Reef is the other one of interest. He looks to have been brought to the boil for today – and it wouldn’t be hard to make a case for him.

However, you can’t beat 11/4 and again, that price has no margin in it…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Advice Summary

Tips

(L ) Leicester 5:00 Some Finish 0.25pt win 6/1

Eye Catchers

Kelso 3:05 Unioniste