Review of the day

Whilst it won’t go down as one of the great days for the official P&L, I think those who understand the service, will realise what an important day today was…

As said this morning, it has been a tough couple of weeks – and I felt like I really needed a winning tip or two.

And low and behold, that’s exactly that I got !

First up, it was Imagine the Chat at Newbury – who kept his feet whilst all around him were tumbling…

In truth it is debatable whether any of his rivals would have been able to beat him, even if they hadn’t fallen.

Sean Bowen looked supremely confident throughout – and he came away nicely from the favourite on the Newbury run in.
A good start to the day.

Next it Balmusette.
I have to be honest - her late market drift worried me.

8/1 when I tipped her – and backed into as low at 6/1 – she was nearly double that price on BF, at the off.

Despite that, she travelled through the race with purpose – but just couldn’t quicken when asked.

She’ll be dropped a couple more pounds for the run – and her day will come.

The final tips of the day to run, were Ziga Boy and Godsmejudge.

As with the two previous tips, they weren’t particularly strong in the market (though not significantly weak either).

Ziga Boy took up a perfect position from the off – jumped for fun – and never really looked like getting beaten.

If only all the tips could run like that !

To put the cherry on the cake, Godmejudge ran on well to take a distant second.

The forecast paid nearly £50 – not bad if you were shrewd enough to latch on to it (which Decky was – well done Decky !!).

Despite that good effort (and a little bit like in the tipping competition – LOL !), Decky was forced to take second place in the days ‘interpreting the write-up’ challenge – behind Steve…

Steve is a new guy to the service – who bravely took the plunge at the start of the season and signed up to the Info service.

More than that, he’s thrown himself into the service – participating in the Naps competition and generally contributing to the forum.

Today, he got some reward for his effort s over the past couple of months.

Despite having limited experience of the service – and on the back of a pretty poor run – he took the plunge and put the days 4 ‘strongest’ mentions into a lucky 15.

Now you have to appreciate that this was Steves view of ‘strong’ – not mine.
I just provide the analysis – it’s up to you guys to interpret it !

Well, today, Steve interpreted it very well indeed.

He had a £2 Lucky 15 on Baltimore Rock, Ma Filleule, Silvergrove and One Track Mind – and all 4 won !

I don’t know what odds Steve took – but at SP, the bet paid just shy of £650 !

I’ll be expecting him to sign up again next season !

So, all things considered, I think today can be classed as a good day !

As I mentioned this morning, I’m now taking a few days off.

I’ll resist basking in the glory – and instead consider any improvements I can make.

I’ll doubtless be around on the forum a bit (assuming I can get in !) – but as I’ll be away for part of the period, don’t expect to see too much of me.

Finally, I would like to wish you all a very happy and healthy New Year. Hopefully, with help from TVB – and a bit of effort from yourselves - it will be a prosperous one as well !

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 29th

The abandonment of Limerick means there are 4 NH meetings today: Newbury, Doncaster and Kelso in the UK – plus Leopardstown in Ireland.

This is the last day for me, before I take a few days break (back on the 5^th Jan – in case you’ve not being paying attention !).

It is therefore the final day of December as far as the TVB service is concerned.

And, unless I hit on 3 winners (which is a little unlikely!) it has to be considered a disappointing month.

In all probability, we will officially finish the month about level – with doesn’t sound too bad.

However, we were chugging along nicely with our near 100% ROI half way through the month – before the wheels came off…

I’ve not really got much of an explanation for what has gone wrong over the past fortnight.

Clearly it’s a very busy period – and the weather has played havoc with things – but I’m not sure the answer is that simple.

I’ve been on the go studying and writing for almost 3 solid months now – and I just wonder if it’s taken away a bit of my sharpness.

I don’t honestly know – but I’ll certainly be mulling it over, during the next few days…

Anyway, I don’t want to sound all doom and gloom – I’m sure it’s a ‘blip’ rather than a ‘trend’ – and you can rest assured that I’ll be working hard to resume normal service, once we are into the new year.

With regards to today, then we have ended up with 4 small tips across 3 races.

The stake sizes don’t really reflect my confidence in the selections – more the fact that the prices were as tight as I’d want to be taking.

All 4 horses were backed last night – and continued to be backed this morning.

Clearly, me tipping them doesn’t help either, with the mandatory point or two being shaved off the prices.

We do have to be very careful with prices.

Whether people acknowledge it or not, ‘value’ is of paramount importance.

Nobody can maintain a strike rate that allows them, to continually take below the odds – you must always bear that in mind.

The trouble is, no one can bet profitably without backing a few winners – so it’s a tricky balancing act…

Hopefully we’ll get a winner – or even two – this afternoon.

We could certainly do with one.

Here’s the rationale behind the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Newbury

12:50

Some of you may recall that I was initially quite keen on Imagine the Chat, when he made his seasonal debut at Chepstow last month.

My first impression was that he stuck out like a sore thumb, in an average looking race – though on closer inspection, I revised that opinion, as the race looked a bit stronger than I first thought !

Well, I was right on the quality of the race, as time has shown it to be very strong contest – with numerous subsequent winners having emerged from it.

In a way, that helps explain Imagine the Chats disappointing run that day – though I suspect he didn’t run his race, regardless…

Certainly, if he was being priced up purely on that piece of form, he would be a 33/1 shot – but racing is never that simple…

Based on his hurdle form from last year, Imagine the Chat remains very interesting – even more so now that he is stepped up to a trip of 2m6f, having run over the minimum distance at Chepstow.

It will also help his case, that the stable of Rebecca Curtis is seemingly now back in good form. She struggled hugely during November and early December – but the signs just before Christmas, were that things had turned a corner.

She has only had 2 runners in the post Christmas period, so has popped back under the radar – but hopefully Imagine the Chat will sort that out this afternoon !

In terms of dangers, then I don’t think the race is as strong as the numbers suggest…

Road to Freedom is the one I fear most – though his jumping has so far proved to be his Achilles heal.

Aigle De La See and Willoughby Hedge are the other 2 I would be particularly fearful of – if the market spoke in their favour.

Hopefully it won’t though – and Imagine the Chat can start to build on the promise he showed last season…

0.25pt win Imagine the Chat 8/1

Silvergrove is the one to beat in the following Mandarin chase (1:25).

He was desperately unlucky not to score on his stable debut at Sandown, at the beginning of the month – and even off a 7lb higher mark today, will take all the beating.

However, the market is wise to his chances – and I certainly wouldn’t want to be taking anything less than 2/1 about him.

I have a feeling that Henllan Harri may get to a price bigger than his form warrants.

I would say, Silvergrove aside, his chance is as good as anything else in the field – a current price of 11/1 (and drifting) holds a little bit of appeal (maybe EW – provided all 8 run)…

Only 3 go to post for the grade 1 Challow hurdle – which is very disappointing.

Barters Hill is likely to lead from the off – and probably won’t be passed.

It will be great for his connections – but not so good for racing in general.

Grade 1 races are the sports showcase, this particular race is not going to show the sport in the best of lights…

There’s a very trappy novices handicap chase at 2:35, in which 4 of the 5 runners can be fancied.

The race will likely come down to tactics and jumping.

Balgarry will probably look to make all – but I think Stiletto might cut him down late.

I would expect One Track Mind to take the handicap hurdle at 3:10.

He was a beaten favourite at Cheltenham on his seasonal debut – but ran well enough in a decent race.

I think he will benefit from that run – and also from todays shorter trip.

The opposition isn’t poor – and there’s little value in a price of 5/4 – but I think he will win.

Doncaster

1:45

Top Billing was installed last night, as quite a short priced favourite for this race – but he looks one to take on…

He was a very easy winner last time out – but stole the race, on heavy ground and has been raised 12lb for his troubles.

If he’s progressive enough, it won’t stop him – but the percentage call is to oppose him…

Zeroshadesofgrey has usurped him as favourite this morning – and I would be more fearful of him.

He was a very decent novice last season – and after a couple of disappointing runs over fences, reverts to hurdles this afternoon off a fair enough looking mark.

The issue for him could be the ground – as I suspect he wants it softer than he is going to get this afternoon.

Balmusette on the other hand, should find the ground ideal.

She is also likely to relish the step back up in trip, having run over shorter on her 2 previous outings this season.

She was the very impressive winner of a mares listed hurdle over this course and distance in February – and based on that form, she doesn’t look badly handicapped off a mark of 131.

She finished behind Red Devil Boys last time out – but with a 10lb turnaround in the weights and an extra half mile to travel, I expect Balmusette to take her revenge this afternoon.

Half cases can be made for a few of the others – but equally they all have questions to answer.

Balmusette looks to have been primed for this race – and there are no doubts about her effectiveness in the conditions.

I think she will be tough to beat.

0.25pt win Balmusette 8/1

3:25

Despite the numbers, I’ll be a bit surprised if this race isn’t won by either Ziga Boy or Wild Bill.

The former is now ridiculously well handicapped – and will be facing perfect conditions: whilst the latter is very progressive and could still be a fair way ahead of his mark.

Choosing between the 2 wasn’t easy – but I have a slight preference for Ziga boy and the early prices helped make up my mind.

As some of you will probably recall, I was quite keen on Ziga Boy the last time he ran, at Fontwell.

However, early rain and another price crash, put me off him.

He still looked likely to win, turning in that day – but his stamina gave out up the home straight and he ultimately finished a well beaten third.

He has been dropped 3lb for that run, which is generous – but more importantly will face better ground today.

I think everything is in place for him to run a huge race.

Wild Bill is a different kettle of fish.
He was a very impressive winner over course and distance last time out.

However that was in a lower grade than he runs in today – and he has an 8lb weight rise to contend with as well.

He could easily be up to it – and I wouldn’t put any one off supporting him.

I just felt his price was tight enough, considering the uncertainty…

The only one at a big price that I was interested in, was Godsmejudge.

He is potentially even better handicapped than Ziga Boy – but he’s not been in any kind of form.
I took a chance on him last time out at Sandown – but he was well beaten that day and showed very little.

It could easily be the same today – but he is dropped in grade and also running off a 6lb lower mark.

That still wouldn’t be enough – but the fitting of a first time tongue tie and Noel Fehily in the saddle, got me interested !

He’s very risky – and could easily run badly – but he could also win.

In the circumstances, I felt it prudent to save on him.

0.25pt win Ziga Boy 5/1

0.125pt win Godsmejudge 14/1 

In the novice handicap hurdle at 1:10, it strikes me as significant that Tom Scudamore is partnering Baltimore Rock, when he could have gone to Newbury and partnered Ballingary (amongst others).
Certainly, if David Pipe has him fully tuned, he is good enough to take this race on his seasonal debut.

The Grey Taylor is the obvious danger – but is short enough in the betting.

The other one who catches my eye at a price, is Monyjean.

He ran OK on his debut at Huntingdon – and whilst he would need to improve on that, he may well do so.

At 16/1+ he could be worth a tiny speculative interest.

There is a fascinating mares chase at 2:20, which looks to rest between the front 3 in the market.

Like most, I was very impressed by Kalane at Huntington last time – but I think people might have gone a bit overboard.

Visually, she was hugely impressive but she beat nothing.

She meets a couple of borderline grade 1 performers today – and I’ll be a bit surprised if she can run away from them.

I thought Ma Filleule ran well enough at Ascot last time – and at level weights, Kalane will have to be very good to beat her.

Pepite Rose could easily turn out to be the biggest danger – but over a trip which might stretch her stamina a little, I would be hopeful that Ma Filleule would be the superior.

Leopardstown

The most interesting race on the Leopardstown card, is arguably the opening amateur riders chase.

The ex Hunter Chaser, Court Frontier, stands out in this after a successful rules debut over hurdles.

Unfortunately, he’s been well picked up by the market – and a price of 7/4 leaves no margin.

With 12 runners, EW is an option and I can see both Mister First and Kilcrea running big races.

As has been the case with virtually all of the grade 1 events run at Leopardstown over the Christmas holiday, the fields for todays 2 events are tiny.

Only 4 runners go to post for both the Novice chase at 1:55 and the Ryanair hurdle at 2:30.

Assuming he jumps round OK, No More Heroes should take the former event – but with it being a novice chase, that’s not guaranteed.

The Ryanair hurdle doesn’t look quite such a formality.

It’s interesting that favourite Nichols Canyon finished well behind Windsor Park, when they met in the Neptune hurdle at last seasons Cheltenham festival.

Todays shorter trip and race fitness may well swing things in favour of Nichols Canyon – but I wouldn’t want to be taking 2/5 on him.

Particularly as Identity Thief could easily upset them both.

He’s looked extremely progressive over hurdles this season – and on the book has very little to find with Nichols Canyon.

He would probably be the bet in the race – though it may well be one that I sit out…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Review of the day

I little bit like at Market Rasen on Saturday, I felt we knew our fate after a couple of fences today…

In truth, I was fearful before the tapes even went up.

It’s rare that a front runner drifts on BF – yet Kerryhead Storm was available at just over 4/1 at the off.

He was 7/2 when I tipped him this morning – and 3/1 not long after – a drift like that was unlikely to be a good thing…

I guess in part, it was because some one knew that he wasn’t likely to get the uncontested lead I’d hoped for.

As it turned out, he barely managed to lead at all – with Moscow Me and Gold Ingot hassling him throughout the early stages of the race.

That wasn’t how it was supposed to be.

He was supposed to be bossing the field – not competing for the lead.

By half way, he was struggling in third place and whilst he stuck to his task as best he could, he was always fighting a losing battle.

He eventually came home a well beaten fourth – behind Moscow Me and Gold Ingot.

Again, it was disappointing stuff – and I need to think about whether I should be tipping in these small field, relatively low grade races…

In the other handicap chase on the Leicester card, I anticipated the pace a bit more successfully.

Valadom did get the better of the ‘battle’ with Noble Legend – but he was unable to withstand Mystifiable late on.

As I said this morning, that one always had the potential to be the joker in the pack – and backed down from 10/1 early to 9/2 at the off, I wasn’t too surprised to see him come home in front.

Valadom ran a very honest race – and on better ground, with no competition for the lead, he will take a lot of beating from his current mark.

In the final race on the Leicester card, I was most interested in Arkaim. However, Tara Flow was one of the ones I feared – if strong in the betting.

He was sent off a well backed 9/4 fav and duly came home an easy winner…

Over in Ireland, Don Poli won the Lexus – but only just…

As expected, On His Own put the pace to the race – and was still in with a chance turning for home.

However Don Poli was within striking distance - and if that’s the case, he normally manages to get there.

I would still be a bit concerned about him in the Gold Cup – though you do have to admire his battling qualities.

Certainly a narrow defeat of First Lieutenant, Fox Rock and On His Own, is at least a stone below what will be required to win in March.

Bryan Cooper seemed to get his fractions about right in the Christmas hurdle - but couldn’t withstand the late challenge of the Gigginstown owned Prince of Scars.

That one had won handicaps on his 2 latest runs, so was stepping up markedly in class to land the grade 1 prize.

It will be interesting to see how far he can go – but in the relatively weak staying hurdle division, it might be prudent not to underestimate him.

In the handicap hurdle on the card, Forever Gold got he better of Russian Bill.
Malt Gem ran a reasonable, race – but was left behind from the second last.

Finally, the beginners chase was won by Zabana, in quite impressive style.

He could well develop into a contender for the JLT chase at the festival.

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 28th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Leicester and Catterick in the UK – and Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

In theory, it should be quite a big day, in Ireland at least, with two grade 1 events taking place at Leopardstown.

However, in reality, it is relatively low key – at least when compared to the past couple of days….

Certainly there isn’t much to get excited about at either Catterick or Limerick – and whilst the cards at Leicester and Leopardstown are interesting, finding tips isn’t easy.

That said, I managed to unearth one.

I would have like a bigger price (wouldn’t I always !) – but I have to realistic.

If it comes home in front, I’ll be happy enough !

Here’s the rationale for the tip – and a few other thoughts…

Leicester

12:50

I’m hoping that Kerryhead Storm will be able to control this race from the front.

He’s the only front runner in the field, so should get the run of the race.

He’s also reasonably handicapped – and a previous course and distance winner.

On the back of a very good seasonal debut at Ludlow, I actually fancied him last time at the same course.

However, he ran in a race where there were a host of front runners and he was beaten very early.
I think a line can be put through that performance.

I’m sure he will perform much better in this small field – and in truth, I don’t see much that he has to beat…

The obvious one is the favourite, Moscow Me.

He has already run 2 good races this season, but is edging up the handicap as a consequence.

He might still be ahead of his mark – but I think he will find Kerryhead Storm a tough adversary.

I could have been interested in Gold Ingot – but over a longer trip.
He ran quite well, to a point, last time out, before fading. Presumably that is why he has been dropped in trip today.

However, I’m not completely convinced that is the answer.

The other two in the race, Le Fin Bois and Supreme Asset are theoretically well handicapped - but are also woefully out of form.

Either would be a danger if bouncing back today – but hopefully that won’t happen.

Ultimately, this just came down to price.

I wouldn’t want much less than 7/2 for Kerryhead Storm, but I think that is a fair enough price, so I’m prepared to take the risk.

0.5pt win Kerryhead Storm 7/2

The handicap chase at 2:00 is a real conundrum…

I could be quite keen on Valadom, if Noble Legend wasn’t in the race.

However, both horses need to front run – so something is going to give.

My guess is that it will be Noble Legend – but I am fearful that Valadom will have to go off too fast, in order to make that happen (thereby compromising his own chances).

In truth, the race is not just about a potential pace war.

A decent case can be made for a number of the other runners.

Great Link is the obvious one: he has run well on his 2 outings for the Skeltons and I can see no reason why he won’t go close again this afternoon.

Cloudy Bob is another who I would expect to go well. He is now dangerously handicapped – and will have his perfect conditions.

A case could also be made for the Italian Yob – whilst Mystifiable is the potential joker in the pack, on only his second outing over fences.

In short, the race is just too tricky to call.

However, if Valadom does somehow get an uncontested lead, I think he will prove very hard to pass.

In the final race on the card, I am quite interested in Arkaim – at a price…

He’s a decent (if slightly quirky) chaser, who gets to run over hurdles, from a mark 13lb lower than his chase mark.

That should make him interesting – and does, to a point…

Certainly I can’t see any reason why he should be a stone worse over the small obstacles.
However, I have a couple of concerns.
Firstly, I’m not sure he’ll relish the desperate ground: and secondly he could be in against some big improvers…

Black Fire and Tara Flow are the obvious ones – though there is a lot of guesswork involved with both.

The other potential concern, is that this is merely a confidence booster for Arkaim, following a recent fall over fences.

If the money came late for him (and the unexposed ones weren’t strong in the betting), I might be interested.

Otherwise, I’ll probably just watch…

Leopardstown

There’s a disappointing line up for the Lexus…

Don Poli heads the market – and rightly so – but I don’t think he’s unbeatable.

A lot will depend on the pace of the race.

If there is a searching end-to-end gallop, he is likely to win: but if it gets tactical, he could get caught out.

I would expect On His Own to make the running – but that is not guaranteed - and if nobody goes on, then it could end up a bit of a farce…

With Willie Mullins training 3 of the 6 runners, I would expect it to be a reasonably run race - but he pace niggle would remain.

Ignoring that aspect, then I did briefly consider tipping Carlingford Lough EW.

He won the Hennessy over course and distance last February and on that form has a very good chance of at least placing.
However, I would have expected him to be stronger in the market than his current 12/1, if connections really fancied him.

The other Grade 1 on the card, is the Christmas hurdle – and this looks even weaker.

It appears to come down to whether Alpha Des Obeaux (or possibly Martell Towers, if he is fully tuned), can draw the sting out of Arctic Fire, over a trip that is a good way in excess of his best…

Your guess is as good as mine, on that one.

Bryan Cooper is certainly a fair judge of pace – but I can’t see Ruby allowing him too much rope, either…

My guess is that Ruby will find a way of getting Arctic Fire home in front.

But that’s what the betting thinks too – so there’s not really an angle…

The second race on the card, is a competitive handicap hurdle.

I was initially drawn to Malt Gem, who sits near the foot of the handicap – and who was a good winner last time out.
That was over fences and he’s back over hurdles today – but off a slightly lower mark.

He is therefore well enough handicapped – and will be suited by todays conditions.
I think he’ll run well – but have a feeling that he might lack the class of some of his rivals.

JP controls the market again, via Leave at Dawn and Roll it Out – and one of those is the most likely winner.

Willie Mullins also has a couple of likely looking types in Childrens List and Valyssa Monterg: whilst Russian Bill is another potentially dangerous one.

Malt Green might be an EW bet at 20/1 – but I’ll be a little surprised of at least one of the aforementioned doesn’t prove a bit too good for him.

Finally, there is a cracking beginners chase off at 1:20.

Tell us More and Zabana are potentially high class novices - but Balbir Du Mathin and Blazer are very dangerous looking opponents.

It’s not a race where you can have a strong view (unless you are connected to one of the horses), but it is a race which could prove very informative.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Review of the day

It felt like a case of what might have been, today…

As you are aware, I’ve been playing things very tightly recently – because of the small margins in the market and the uncertainty over the ground.

I know that it’s not generally the best approach – but there are times when I feel it is the most prudent.

It possibly saved us a point yesterday – but it cost us a bit more than that today…

With a slightly more cavalier attitude, we would have been on both Flemenstar and The last Samuri – but my more cautious approach saw us on neither (officially speaking, anyway !).

Flemenstar was the tougher one to take, because of the price – but probably the easier to explain.

I felt that in order to win, he would need Un De Sceaux to seriously under perform (or fall).

I don’t like tipping in the hope that something goes wrong for one of the other runners – so I didn’t feel I could tip Flemenstar.

I guess he could still have placed, even if Un De Sceaux had stood up – but we would effectively have got 5/2 on that happening – and I didn’t feel that offered sufficient value (though I did consider it).

In truth, if Un De Sceaux hadn’t fallen at the second last, Flemenstar may well have finished third (as I think Simply Ned would have finished his race more strongly).

As so often, they are fine lines…

I also resisted the temptation to tip The Last Samuri. – but that was purely down to the price.

I didn’t feel that 6/1 offered much (if anything) in the way of value, in a competitive 15 runner handicap.

As happened with Ned Stark, he could easily have been hampered in the race – and I wasn’t entirely convinced the track would suit him either.

Doubts are all part and parcel of the game – but there is very little margin for error at 6/1.

As it happened, everything went right for The Last Samuri and he got up close home to win.

In contrast, Ballyhague Bay was beaten not long after half way – and appears to be in the grip of the handicapper…

Earlier in the afternoon, Unzing had disappointed at Limerick.

There was no obvious reason for him not performing, so I can’t really offer an explanation.

It was disappointing because as you doubtless gathered, I fancied him quite strongly…

The final 2 tips of the day ran in the Paddy Power chase and whilst neither of them really featured, hopefully most of you managed to pick up a small return…

That was courtesy of The Job is Right, who ran on strongly after jumping the last, to grab a highly unlikely fifth place.

As all bar a couple of the bookmakers were paying on the first five home, he will be recorded officially, as having placed…

Captain Von Trappe was pulled up in the race – it all seemed a bit much for him…

Elsewhere, Sprinter Sacre showed he had guts (something we’d not really seen previously) as well as talent, when winning the Desert Orchid chase.

It looks pretty clear that he’s not the horse he once was - but he’s still pretty useful, as a hard fought victory over Sire de Grugy demonstrated.

The race might not have blown open the betting for the Queen Mother Champion chasse – but coupled with Un De Sceauxs defeat, it certainly made things more interesting…

In the Wayward Lad novice chase, Ar Mad showed real tenacity to get back up having been headed by Vanituex; whilst Desert Queen also showed great courage – but having tried to take every hurdle home with her, couldn’t resist the late challenge of Cannon Fodder, in the mares handicap hurdle.

The first 3 places in the final race on the card, were filled by 3 of the 5 horses that I nominated as potential big improvers.

It’s not the first time I’ve pulled off that particular trick this season.

The tricast paid £112 - which makes you think…

TVB.

Daily write-up - Dec 27th

The abandonment of Chepstow and Wetherby, means that there are just 3 meetings this afternoon: at Kempton in the UK – and Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

As with yesterday, the racing is top class (particularly at Kempton and Leopardstown) – but betting opportunities are limited…

Most of the races are very competitive – and the odds on offer are generally where they should be.

It makes it tough going: maintaining a significant edge isn’t easy.

I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day, across 3 races.

Here’s the rationale behind them – and my other thoughts…

Kempton

2:35

A ferocious 15 runner handicap – and in truth, no result would come as a complete shock.

The first and second from last years race, Ballinvarrig and Shangani, are back running off almost exactly the same marks as 12 months ago – and consequently set the standard.
However this years race looks stronger than last years – and they are therefore passed over…

If price wasn’t a factor, we would probably be on The Last Samuri.

He ran a big race on his seasonal and stable debut last time at Newcastle, in a race which has worked out particularly well.

However, he is a 6/1 shot – and that just seems a bit too short…

At double those odds, I am more interested in Ballyhague Bay.

He also ran really well last time out, in the London National at Sandown, at the beginning of the month.

Relatively unconsidered for the race, he looked the most likely winner until weakening up the home straight.
There is a chance he didn’t get home that day over the 3m5f trip – so dropping back to 3 miles today, should work in his favour.

Certainly the track and trip looked perfect for him when he won in February – and whilst this is a stronger race today, his profile very much remains progressive…

I can see the arguments for both Foxbridge and Ned Stark – but I wonder how well suited both will be to the flat, tight, Kempton track…

0.25pt win Ballyhague Bay 12/1

The high-light of the Kempton card, is the clash between Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy in the Desert Orchid chase at 2:00.

Sprinter Sacre made a brilliant come back at Cheltenham last month when taking the Schloer chase at the Paddy Power meeting in imperious fashion.

However, he faced second rate opposition that day – and the weights were very much in his favour – today will be a much bigger test….

Sire De Grugy won the Tingle Creek last time out, and in doing so, suggested he was back close to his best.

It will be an enthralling race to watch – and one that I wouldn’t want to call.

As always, I will be cheering on Sprinter Sacre – and hoping he comes out on top.

The previous race on the card is the Wayward Lad novice chase – and this is another cracker…

Doubtless Ar Mad will try and make all – but he won’t find it easy with Vaniteux tracking him…

It will also be fascinating to see whether Arzal can cope with the step up in class. He’s been really impressive in a couple of novice handicap chases – but today will be much more of a challenge for him.

I’ll also be interested to see how the 4 year old, The Saint James, gets on.

He receives a lot of weight from his rivals – and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran a very big race.

The 16/1 on offer about him, holds some appeal…

I was hoping to take on Desert Queen in the mares handicap hurdle at 3:10 – but I can’t find anything to oppose her with.
In truth, it’s not that I don’t rate her - I do. However, she is very ‘quirky’ and therefore a price of 2/1 holds very limited appeal.
If she puts her best foot forward, she will provably win – but she is far from certain to do that…

That said, I’m not a fan of Broxbourne; Tara Mist has become disappointing; Tagrita is likely to improve for the run – and the others don’t look good enough…

It’s a shame – but it’s a race I have to pass on…

The closing handicap hurdle looks an absolute minefield…

I can see Ryeolian running a big race – and he is definitely back to lay in running material.

However, with so many unexposed sorts in opposition, it is unlikely that he will  come home in front…

Two Taffs, Draytonian, Zulu Oscar, Monsieur Gibraltar and Affair D’Honneur are all completely unexposed and could be anything.

Doubtless 2 or 3 of them will disappoint – but I suspect at least 1 or 2 of them will prove to be significantly better than their mark…

With another 2 or 3 who you could also make a case for, this is another race best watched…

Leopardstown

2:55

With a first prize of over 100,000 Euro, this is a race worth winning !

It’s therefore maybe not too surprising that JP McManus targets it and is responsible for 4 of the first 6 in the betting.

You can guarantee that they will all be primed to the minute - and have to be accorded maximum respect.
I’ve decided to have a couple of tiny EW plays in the race – and keep my fingers crossed !

The first of them is The Job is Right.

If he had stood up, he would have finished second to Djakadam in the Thystes in January.

That was a big performance against a horse who subsequently ran second in the Gold Cup.

Off a mark 7lb higher, in ideal conditions - and with Davy Russell in the saddle, he must have a sporting chance of at least being placed…

The other one I’ve opted for, is Captain Von Trappe…

He’s just a novice, with only 4 chase runs under his belt, so is a much riskier proposition.
However, it strikes me as interesting that Bryan Cooper has chosen to ride him ahead of the shorter priced Empire of Dirt.

Furthermore, in Gordon Elliot he is trained by a man who knows how to win these big handicaps.

It’s difficult to make a solid case for him on form – but I suspect he is capable of running well…

The other 2 I considered at big prices, were Ballychorus and Perfect Promise.

However, I’m not sure that conditions will be ideal for either of them.

0.125pt EW The Job is Right 25/1

0.125pt EW Captain Von Trappe 25/1

The Grade 1 chase at 1:15, sees the seasonal reappearance of Un De Sceaux.

The outstanding novice chaser last season, he is expected to graduate to Champion chase honours this time around.

Today will be a big day for him, however.

Not only does he need to get the better of some fair opposition: he also needs to hope that Sprinter Sacre under performs at Kempton.

In terms of this race, then I would expect him to win – but wouldn’t dream of taking the 1/3 odds that are on offer.

For a start, I reckon he’s not much more than that to jump round cleanly – particularly as it’s his seasonal debut and his jumping could be exuberant.

If the ground was decent, I would be tempted to take him on with Sizing Granite - but I just don’t think heavy will suit that one.

Instead, I am much more tempted by Flemenstar.
He would have given Un De Sceaux a proper race, when as his peak – and whilst he might no longer be that good, his 2 runs this season have shown that a fair bit of talent remains.

He will love the heavy ground – and I particularly like the return of Andy Lynch to the saddle.

I was sorely tempted by the 20/1 EW – and honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he made Un De Sceaux work pretty hard…

He’s certainly worth considering at 5/1 in the ‘without the favourite’ market – if you are able to place such a bet.

The future champions novice hurdle at 1:45 looks a cracker - though I’ve no strong view on what will win it.

It is very much a race to watch, with a view to the big novice hurdle races later in the season.

It would certainly be no surprise if the winner of one of the Cheltenham novice hurdles were in todays field.
Needless to say, Willie Mullin provides most of the suspects with 4 of the runners –though it is the Gordon Elliot trained Tombstone who heads the market.

Woodland Opera is another very interesting one – for Jessie Harrington; whilst Tully East caught my eye last time out.
Admittedly that was in a relatively modest handicap hurdle - but he won with a ton in hand.
Stepping up to todays company will be quite a challenge for him – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out-run his dismissive 50/1 odds.

Finally, Copy That will take a lot of beating in the handicap hurdle at 2:20 – but a best price of 5/2 makes very limited appeal.

Limerick

2:10

I’ve been waiting for Unzing to appear over the Christmas period – and I’ve got to be careful not to get too carried away with him !

So far, most of my Christmas tips have been ‘hopeful’ – however I’ll be quite disappointed if he doesn’t go extremely close.

He really caught my eye on his seasonal debut last time, at Punchestown.

That was in a hot handicap, won by Sumos Novios (who is himself, well fancied for the Paddy Power chase).

Unzing travelled into that race with purpose, before blowing up on the run for home.

Presumably that run was needed, as it was his first for 6 months.

It was actually his first in Ireland for 2 and a half years – as after 3 initial outings, he has been running in France for the past couple of seasons.

Obviously it’s difficult to compare French form with Irish form – but he has been running with credit at the main French jump track, Auteuil, and I suspect his mark of 117 is very workable.

There is a bit of guesswork with this one – but I keep a very close eye on his trainer, Sue Bramhall – and I do like the signs with this one.
Let’s hope I’ve read things correctly !

0.375pt win Unzing 12/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

Review of the day

I maybe should have guessed this morning, when Wetherby was abandoned, that it was going to be one of those days…

I had a couple of quite strong fancies there – but we were destined never to find out how they would have got on.

Instead I put us on a few half fancies at some of the other meetings and things didn’t work out…

First up, it was Aviador at Huntingdon.
There was nothing between him and Flemi Two Toes when they met at Plumpton at the back end of last season – and it looked like being a similar story this afternoon, when the two of them pressed on down the back straight.

However, Aviador didn’t have the stamina reserves of Flemi and whilst that one pressed on, Aviador weakened back into a well beaten fifth…

It was a similar story with Ratify, 3 races later.

He too travelled well  - but didn’t get home and eventually also finished fifth…

Aerlite Supreme was another who travelled quite nicely - but rather than not getting home, he couldn’t quicken.

He looks like a project of some sort – though figuring out when he will strike, might prove challenging…

The most disappointing tips of the day however, ran in the handicap chase at Market Rasen.

I was relatively sure I had got hold of the race, with Money for Nothing and Ubaltique - but not long after the off, I knew our chances were all but gone...

Despite there only being 6 horses in the race, in theory it should have been run at a decent pace, with 2 potential front runners.

However, one of them, Grimley Gale, was withdrawn early this morning: whilst the other, Chankillo, shied when the tapes went up.

This left Willie Hall in a leisurely, uncontested lead – with Money for Nothing, pulling for his head at the back, along side Ubaltique.

When Money for Nothing made a serious mistake at the last fence on the first circuit, it was clear he wasn’t going to win – and he eventually pulled up.

I guess we still had Ubaltique in the race – but he didn’t perform and could only finish a distant third.

Disappointing stuff…

In terms of the big races at Kempton, then it was far from disappointing !

Cur Card won a thrilling King George from Vatour, in a driving finish.

What that told us, is that Vatour is highly unlike to win the Gold Cup – but will be almost unbeatable in the Ryanair.

Cue Card just might win the Gold Cup – though I think it a little unlikely.

Don Cossack might also win the Gold Cup – but I now think Djakadam is the one to beat…

Al Ferof ran a big race to finish third – punishing my decision not to put him up EW – though if I had done, I suspect Don Cossack wouldn’t have fallen !

I was also punished for not putting up The New One EW – though the punishment was very small.

He was absolutely no match for Faugheeen – who is going to take a world of beating in the Champion huddle.

The New One would probably be better served by a step up in trip and being targeted at the World Hurdle.

Whether that will happen though, is a different matter…

Earlier on the card, Tea for Two had seen off Southfield Royale to take the Kauto Star novice chase.

It was a result I could have foreseen – but not one I felt able to take a risk on.

Similarly I wasn’t prepared to take a risk on Full Shift, who won the novice handicap chase.

The bets you should have made are always are easier to call with hindsight !

Finally at Leopardstown, Douvan showed himself different class to his rivals.

He is going to take the world of beating in the Arkle.

The Cheltenham festival is shaping up to be a Willie Mullins benefit, again this season…

TVB.