Daily write-up - Dec 8th

There are 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Uttoxeter and Fontwell.

I had little expectations for today, so was pleasantly surprised when I saw the cards for the meetings.

There are a number of interesting races at both venues – and I was optimistic that I would be able to find a tip or two.

In fact, I was pretty set on issuing at least one tip – but then the rain came over night and we have the dreaded ‘ground uncertainty’.

That’s more of an issue on some days, than on others – but it’s an issue today…

The horse I wanted to side with, has a preference for better ground – so with 6mm overnight on already soft ground at Fontwell, I’ve opted to play safe.

It is frustrating.

I spend a lot of time assessing the races, so there is a desire to tip.

But I have to make a judgement based on the level of uncertainty and the odds on offer – and on this particular occasion, the decision is to hold fire.

There will be other days…

Here are my thoughts of the afternoons action:

Fontwell

In the handicap chase at 1:10, my 2 against the field are Zero Visibility and Gowanauthat.

Of the 2, I have a slight preference for the former, who should handle rain softened ground – and who won off the same mark as today, last week over hurdles.

However, I do think Gowanauthat might be better than he has shown so far (though I have a slight worry about the ground for him) – plus both Ilewin for Hannah and Highbury High have significant potential for improvement.

With Zero Visibility priced up at just 2/1, it’s an easy enough race to leave alone.

Without the rain, I would have taken a chance in the 2:10 race…

Ziga Boy strikes me as a well handicapped horse – certainly, he is invariably backed as if he’s one !

A comfortable winner on his second outing last season, he gets to run off a mark just 1lb higher today – and with plenty of scope for improvement, I think he sets a good standard in todays race.

That said, it is a pretty competitive contest…

Based on his last time out run, Ziga Boy should struggle to beat Sun Wild Life.

That one finished a way in front of him with they both made their seasonal debut at Exeter – and whilst Ziga Boy is 3lb better off, that really shouldn’t be enough.

That said, I instinctively feel Ziga Boy is the classier horse – so in receipt of weight, I would always incline towards him.

Of the others, then I think Pete the Feat is potentially very interesting.

A prolific winner in the past, I thought he showed quite a bit on his return from an absence last time.

Ofcourse there is the chance he will ‘bounce’ on the back of that outing – but if he doesn’t he is sufficiently well handicapped to go very close – and that is ignoring the 10lb claimer in the saddle (who just adds to his case).

The other one of real interest is Alternatif.

He shaped with promise on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham – and is another who looks better than his current mark.

The downsides with him, are the fact he is favourite and he is also from a David Pipe yard which has been struggling for a bit of form.

At the early 6/1, I would have taken a risk on Ziga Boy.

With the rain, the 4/1 holds very limited appeal…

In the handicap hurdle at 2:40, Right Step is the one I was most interested in – though again, I don’t think he will want the ground too soft…

It’s not that he can’t handle soft ground – he can. However he is a little short on stamina – so better ground improves his chance of getting home.
The other issue, is the presence of Tickety Bleue.

This one has been off the track for nearly 2 years – but the very fact that Alan King considers her worth persevering with, makes her of real interest.

Already a winner of a bumper and over hurdles, I’m sure she would be a valuable brood mare. King clearly thinks her capable of doing something on the track – so in the circumstances, I’m inclined to just watch the race…

Uttoxeter

I’m pretty sure that the ground will be riding quite soft at Uttoxeter (mid winter, it invariably does).

In the handicap hurdle at 1:20, I considered taking a chance on Itshard to No…

He caught my eye last time out in a novice hurdle at Bangor, and the presence of David Noonan in the saddle today, adds to the appeal.

The issue is that simply, form wise, the horse is impossible to get a proper handle on.
Visually it appears to run very well last time out – but I’ve no idea what the form is worth – and consequently whether the horse is well handicapped.
My instinctive feeling is that it could be – but I would expect market support if that were the case (and it is drifting).

It is also concerning that it takes on a JP owned horse (For Good Measure), that could be literally anything.

You also have to respect the chance of top weight, Verano. He is the default winner if neither of the aforementioned prove to be as good as they might…

The final race of interest today, is the novice handicap chase at 2:20.

We were on Abracadabra Sivola last time out, when he was disappointing at Newbury.
That was in a race much stronger than todays – but his jumping fell apart a little.

In todays small field, he could easily do much better - though I did wonder if he might prefer to go right handed…
More than that, I’m concerned that he might get hassled for the lead from Grove Silver and Friendly Royal - so might not get the race run to suit.
The other big concern is the presence of the totally unexposed, April Dusk.

The betting will likely tell on him – but he could be anything.

A bit like Ziga Boy, I was tempted by Abracadabra at the early 5/1 – but I just had a few too many doubts – and he’s now 7/2, which makes leaving him alone a lot easier !

Here’s hoping you have a great day, if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.