Daily write-up - Dec 27th

The abandonment of Chepstow and Wetherby, means that there are just 3 meetings this afternoon: at Kempton in the UK – and Leopardstown and Limerick in Ireland.

As with yesterday, the racing is top class (particularly at Kempton and Leopardstown) – but betting opportunities are limited…

Most of the races are very competitive – and the odds on offer are generally where they should be.

It makes it tough going: maintaining a significant edge isn’t easy.

I’ve ended up with 4 tips on the day, across 3 races.

Here’s the rationale behind them – and my other thoughts…

Kempton

2:35

A ferocious 15 runner handicap – and in truth, no result would come as a complete shock.

The first and second from last years race, Ballinvarrig and Shangani, are back running off almost exactly the same marks as 12 months ago – and consequently set the standard.
However this years race looks stronger than last years – and they are therefore passed over…

If price wasn’t a factor, we would probably be on The Last Samuri.

He ran a big race on his seasonal and stable debut last time at Newcastle, in a race which has worked out particularly well.

However, he is a 6/1 shot – and that just seems a bit too short…

At double those odds, I am more interested in Ballyhague Bay.

He also ran really well last time out, in the London National at Sandown, at the beginning of the month.

Relatively unconsidered for the race, he looked the most likely winner until weakening up the home straight.
There is a chance he didn’t get home that day over the 3m5f trip – so dropping back to 3 miles today, should work in his favour.

Certainly the track and trip looked perfect for him when he won in February – and whilst this is a stronger race today, his profile very much remains progressive…

I can see the arguments for both Foxbridge and Ned Stark – but I wonder how well suited both will be to the flat, tight, Kempton track…

0.25pt win Ballyhague Bay 12/1

The high-light of the Kempton card, is the clash between Sprinter Sacre and Sire de Grugy in the Desert Orchid chase at 2:00.

Sprinter Sacre made a brilliant come back at Cheltenham last month when taking the Schloer chase at the Paddy Power meeting in imperious fashion.

However, he faced second rate opposition that day – and the weights were very much in his favour – today will be a much bigger test….

Sire De Grugy won the Tingle Creek last time out, and in doing so, suggested he was back close to his best.

It will be an enthralling race to watch – and one that I wouldn’t want to call.

As always, I will be cheering on Sprinter Sacre – and hoping he comes out on top.

The previous race on the card is the Wayward Lad novice chase – and this is another cracker…

Doubtless Ar Mad will try and make all – but he won’t find it easy with Vaniteux tracking him…

It will also be fascinating to see whether Arzal can cope with the step up in class. He’s been really impressive in a couple of novice handicap chases – but today will be much more of a challenge for him.

I’ll also be interested to see how the 4 year old, The Saint James, gets on.

He receives a lot of weight from his rivals – and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran a very big race.

The 16/1 on offer about him, holds some appeal…

I was hoping to take on Desert Queen in the mares handicap hurdle at 3:10 – but I can’t find anything to oppose her with.
In truth, it’s not that I don’t rate her - I do. However, she is very ‘quirky’ and therefore a price of 2/1 holds very limited appeal.
If she puts her best foot forward, she will provably win – but she is far from certain to do that…

That said, I’m not a fan of Broxbourne; Tara Mist has become disappointing; Tagrita is likely to improve for the run – and the others don’t look good enough…

It’s a shame – but it’s a race I have to pass on…

The closing handicap hurdle looks an absolute minefield…

I can see Ryeolian running a big race – and he is definitely back to lay in running material.

However, with so many unexposed sorts in opposition, it is unlikely that he will  come home in front…

Two Taffs, Draytonian, Zulu Oscar, Monsieur Gibraltar and Affair D’Honneur are all completely unexposed and could be anything.

Doubtless 2 or 3 of them will disappoint – but I suspect at least 1 or 2 of them will prove to be significantly better than their mark…

With another 2 or 3 who you could also make a case for, this is another race best watched…

Leopardstown

2:55

With a first prize of over 100,000 Euro, this is a race worth winning !

It’s therefore maybe not too surprising that JP McManus targets it and is responsible for 4 of the first 6 in the betting.

You can guarantee that they will all be primed to the minute - and have to be accorded maximum respect.
I’ve decided to have a couple of tiny EW plays in the race – and keep my fingers crossed !

The first of them is The Job is Right.

If he had stood up, he would have finished second to Djakadam in the Thystes in January.

That was a big performance against a horse who subsequently ran second in the Gold Cup.

Off a mark 7lb higher, in ideal conditions - and with Davy Russell in the saddle, he must have a sporting chance of at least being placed…

The other one I’ve opted for, is Captain Von Trappe…

He’s just a novice, with only 4 chase runs under his belt, so is a much riskier proposition.
However, it strikes me as interesting that Bryan Cooper has chosen to ride him ahead of the shorter priced Empire of Dirt.

Furthermore, in Gordon Elliot he is trained by a man who knows how to win these big handicaps.

It’s difficult to make a solid case for him on form – but I suspect he is capable of running well…

The other 2 I considered at big prices, were Ballychorus and Perfect Promise.

However, I’m not sure that conditions will be ideal for either of them.

0.125pt EW The Job is Right 25/1

0.125pt EW Captain Von Trappe 25/1

The Grade 1 chase at 1:15, sees the seasonal reappearance of Un De Sceaux.

The outstanding novice chaser last season, he is expected to graduate to Champion chase honours this time around.

Today will be a big day for him, however.

Not only does he need to get the better of some fair opposition: he also needs to hope that Sprinter Sacre under performs at Kempton.

In terms of this race, then I would expect him to win – but wouldn’t dream of taking the 1/3 odds that are on offer.

For a start, I reckon he’s not much more than that to jump round cleanly – particularly as it’s his seasonal debut and his jumping could be exuberant.

If the ground was decent, I would be tempted to take him on with Sizing Granite - but I just don’t think heavy will suit that one.

Instead, I am much more tempted by Flemenstar.
He would have given Un De Sceaux a proper race, when as his peak – and whilst he might no longer be that good, his 2 runs this season have shown that a fair bit of talent remains.

He will love the heavy ground – and I particularly like the return of Andy Lynch to the saddle.

I was sorely tempted by the 20/1 EW – and honestly wouldn’t be surprised if he made Un De Sceaux work pretty hard…

He’s certainly worth considering at 5/1 in the ‘without the favourite’ market – if you are able to place such a bet.

The future champions novice hurdle at 1:45 looks a cracker - though I’ve no strong view on what will win it.

It is very much a race to watch, with a view to the big novice hurdle races later in the season.

It would certainly be no surprise if the winner of one of the Cheltenham novice hurdles were in todays field.
Needless to say, Willie Mullin provides most of the suspects with 4 of the runners –though it is the Gordon Elliot trained Tombstone who heads the market.

Woodland Opera is another very interesting one – for Jessie Harrington; whilst Tully East caught my eye last time out.
Admittedly that was in a relatively modest handicap hurdle - but he won with a ton in hand.
Stepping up to todays company will be quite a challenge for him – but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out-run his dismissive 50/1 odds.

Finally, Copy That will take a lot of beating in the handicap hurdle at 2:20 – but a best price of 5/2 makes very limited appeal.

Limerick

2:10

I’ve been waiting for Unzing to appear over the Christmas period – and I’ve got to be careful not to get too carried away with him !

So far, most of my Christmas tips have been ‘hopeful’ – however I’ll be quite disappointed if he doesn’t go extremely close.

He really caught my eye on his seasonal debut last time, at Punchestown.

That was in a hot handicap, won by Sumos Novios (who is himself, well fancied for the Paddy Power chase).

Unzing travelled into that race with purpose, before blowing up on the run for home.

Presumably that run was needed, as it was his first for 6 months.

It was actually his first in Ireland for 2 and a half years – as after 3 initial outings, he has been running in France for the past couple of seasons.

Obviously it’s difficult to compare French form with Irish form – but he has been running with credit at the main French jump track, Auteuil, and I suspect his mark of 117 is very workable.

There is a bit of guesswork with this one – but I keep a very close eye on his trainer, Sue Bramhall – and I do like the signs with this one.
Let’s hope I’ve read things correctly !

0.375pt win Unzing 12/1

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.