Daily write-up - Dec 13th

There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: Carlisle and Southwell in the UK – plus Navan in Ireland.

For the second successive Sunday, the meeting schedule for Cork has been lost to the weather. I some how doubt they’ll have another go at scheduling it, as it will be too close to Christmas.

We are therefore left with 3 meetings – and in truth, not too much to get excited about…

I had half a mind to take the day off – but as you know, I’m the consummate professional and if I believe there is something that warrants tipping, I’ll put myself through the pain barrier, in order to tip it

As you may have gathered then, I’m quite keen on the prospects of Renard – even if I can’t see too much else on the day.

Here’s the thinking behind him – and a few other thoughts…

Carlisle

1:40

As regular readers will know, Venetia and I go back a long way.

In truth, we’ve had a pretty tempestuous relationship: in my first season, I tipped more of her horses than those of anyone else – but only managed to find a couple of winners.

It was a similar case in season 2 -  by which point I was beginning to despair with ever understanding her.

I guess the situation could have gone indefinitely – but then, by chance, I tipped her Gardefort almost exactly 12 months ago – and got a valuable insight into her ‘modus operandi’…

Gardefort hacked up that day – and I recall Venetia being interviewed after the race.
She didn’t look remotely surprised: she had a well handicapped horse – there was a big pot on offer – the result appeared to have been little more than a formality.

Eureka !

There’s no rocket science with Venetia: she runs her horses regularly, ensuring they stay fit.
Generally, they get beaten – so they also stay well handicapped.

When a winnable race comes along – she goes for it. If it’s a winnable race with a big first prize - she really goes for it..

The first prize in todays veterans chase at Carlisle, is just over £18K.

Venetia’s Cold March ran in a red hot handicap at Cheltenham yesterday, worth exactly the same amount.

Realistically, it was always going to be far more difficult for Cold March to win that prize than it will be for Renard to win todays.

Venetia will know that – and whilst I wouldn’t for one minute suggest Cold March wasn’t doing his best yesterday, I also doubt he was tuned to run for his life.

If he won, then fine – she’d take it: but if he didn’t, he would get a bit better handicapped as a result.
That is Venetias way of working…

Consequently, she will know that today, Renard has a golden chance of picking up a really big prize.

The horse is well enough handicapped to do so – and will have no issue with conditions.
The only question is whether he will be fit enough to do himself justice

He’s never won off a long absence – so that creates a doubt.

However, he’ll be 11 in a couple of weeks time – and almost certainly won’t get a better chance to win a decent prize, this season.

In my mind, there is little doubt that Venetia will have him cherry ripe for today – and if that’s the case, then I think he will take the world of beating.

In terms of dangers, then I am really only concerned about Knock a Hand.

He’s not badly handicapped, will love conditions – and is likely to try and make every post a wining one.

I suspect that Aiden will just sit in behind on Renard and take it up 3 out.

By then I’m hoping the others will be well beaten off.

Clearly there is no such thing as a certainty in racing – but I am very keen on Renard this afternoon…

0.5pt win Renard 11/4

In the novice handicap chase at 12:35, I like the look of Morning Royalty.

He caught my eye on his seasonal debut in a similar race over course and distance.
He travelled well that day, but didn’t quite get home.

I marked him down as one to be interested in next time – and I am !

However, it’s a 4 horse race and he’s a 13/8 shot.

I guess you could put him in a double with Renard – but I’m not planning to issue any tips at that kind of price…

The Pertemps qualifier at 2:10, is the other big race on the card.

Again, this looks likely to go to one of the market leaders.

Isaactown Lad is favourite - and I respect his chance. However, I was very taken with the performance of Island Heights, when he won last time at Haydock.

He attacked from the off, and gradually ran his rivals into the ground.

He’s got a mark 6lb higher to defy today – but I think he could be up to it.

That said, he’s a 3/1 chance - and I don’t see too much value in that price.

Southwell

There’s very little to get excited about on the Southwell card…

That said, I did think I might have found a ‘dark one’ in the shape of Timons Tara, who runs in the mares hurdle at 2:25.
She caught my eye when she made her handicap debut in a much better race, at Newbury last month.
Again, I marked her down as one to be interested in next time out.

The trouble is, according to the form book, she has absolutely no chance of beating one of her rivals today.

Back in June, she finished nearly 60 lengths behind Western Breeze when they both ran in a maiden hurdle at this course.

Whilst its true that today race is over half a mile less and will be run on softer ground – it still takes some imagination to see Timons Tara turning round the form on just 8lb better terms.

It’s not even as if Timons Tara is the more progressive – she isn’t.

In short, she was the one I wanted to be with – but I couldn’t possibly have argued a case for a tip.

Consequently, a watching race…

The only other race of interest the card, is the maiden hurdle at 1:20.

I thought Robin of Locksely was a little unfortunate not to win last time out at Ludlow, and I think there’s a good chance he will make amends today.
He’s the only runner on the card for Dan Skelton – which adds further to his attraction.

That said, he faces a few rivals who it’s hard to get a handle on – and he’s a 7/4shot.

He’s easy enough to leave alone at that price.

Navan

Not a ‘mention’ as such, but if you get chance, you really should try and watch Ttebbob in the novice chase at 12:30.

He was absolutely scintillating last time (think Un De Sceaux !) and if he tries to do the same again today, he will present a sight worth seeing…

The bookmakers think that the handicap hurdle at 1:30 is between 3: Harvey Logan, All you Need and Russian Bill.

They might be right – but I think there could be a few ‘lurkers’ in the race.

The one I’m most interested in, is Keppols Lady. She caught my eye last time out over 2 miles and will benefit from a step up in trip today.

She was a 14/1 shot last night – but is now down to 9/1.

I think that might be significant…

Finally, I toyed with tipping Fine Rightly in the handicap chase at 2:35, but I daren’t…

I’ve no doubt that he will run well. He will have perfect conditions and should be spot on following an eye catching run over hurdles last time out.
The trouble is, he faces a number of potentially dangerous rivals.

I’m sure that most of them will fall by the wayside (as a number of them have big question marks), but I would be fearful that one of them might come good and prove to be just too well handicapped.

That said, with a straight bet, Fine Rightly would be quite a strong fancy.

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB