Daily write-up - Dec 6th

There are 3 NH meetings today: Kelso and Huntingdon in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

Historically, this tends to be one of the better Sundays of the jump season, with the Grade 1 John Durken at Punchestown; the Grade 2 Peterborough chase at Huntingdon and a few decent handicaps at Kelso – but it’s a bit of a disappointment today…

There are some good horses running in both of the feature races – but you are guessing on their fitness: whilst the handicaps at Kelso haven’t got the quality of fields that you would expect for the money on offer.

Ofcourse something will still win them – but there is just too much guesswork involved in trying to figure out what, for me to have sufficient confidence to tip anything…

Needless to say I have view on the races – and I might even be able to pinpoint a winner or two – but for serious betting, I think we will be better off waiting for another day…

Here are my thoughts on some of the days races:

Punchestown.

It will be great to see Gold Cup runner up, Djakadam, back on the track in the John Durkan Memorial.

He’s the forgotten horse of this years Gold Cup and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him going very close in March.
In truth, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go close today – but over a trip short of his best and with a long season ahead, a price of 2/1 makes limited appeal…

Unfortunately there is no stand out, with which to take him on.

Second season novices Valseur Lido and Gilgamboa should be perfectly suited by ground and trip – but both are making their seasonal debuts and, as with Djakadam, are likely to improve from it.

Foxrock has the benefit of a recent spin over hurdles- but todays trip is a bare minimum for him and you would expect him to be out-speeded close home.

Clarcam shouldn’t be good enough: and whilst Flemeestar was, he is now pushing 11 and trained by the owners son.

He was a seriously talented animal in his prime (a couple of seasons back) – but not many horses with his profile win Grade 1s…

If there is to be a turn up, I think it is more likely to be provided by Hiddene Cyclone.

He’s the same age as Flemenstar – but hasn’t had his issues.

He’s also never quite had his level of ability – though he‘s not much below Grade 1 class.

With question marks over all of his rivals, if he’s ever going to win a Grade 1 chase it will be today.

He will handle the conditions fine – and is at peak form.
That’s something few of his rivals can say.

I might have been tempted EW if there had been 8 in the race – but with 7, there is still a possibility that he could run his race but find a couple too good for him…

There’s a fascinating handicap chase off at 2:55 and 3 stand out in it: Empire of Dirt, Sizing Gold and Sumos Novios.

The former has the potential to be better than his current mark – but his jumping keeps letting him down.

The latter was a progressive novice last season and is likely to take higher rank this season. The question is whether he will be fully tuned after a 6 month absences.

Sizing Gold has been off the track for 18 months – but if he returns anywhere near his peak, I think he will win this doing hand stands !

I honestly can’t believe a horse of his ability has a handicap mark of 133.

I’m not exaggerating when I say he could easily have 2 stone in hand of that mark.

In fact, without his absence, I could see him being competitive in the John Durkan !

Unfortunately this doesn’t make him the greatest bet of all time – because we haven’t got a clue regarding his current fitness or how much ability he retains.

Connections will doubtless have a much better idea – but I suspect they won’t be completely sure either…

If I was going to tale a chance on a horse trained by any one in Ireland, it would be Henry De Bromhead – but even at 6/1, I don’t feel comfortable taking that chance.

If he’s half that price at the off tho, he’ll win !

Huntingdon

The Peterborough chase isn’t much easier to fathom than the John Durkan !

In terms of his profile, then Ptit Zig fits the race perfectly – the question is whether he is good enough.

In terms of pure ability, then both Al Feror and Wishfull Thinking are officially rated better animals.

However the former is making his seasonal and stable debut (for Dan Skelton); whilst the latter is now pushing 13 years of age..

At the weights, the mare, Pepite Rose, can also be given a good chance.
She is fit and will be perfectly suited by today’s conditions.

The trouble is she’s come up short, every time she’s tackled graded company.

Camping Ground is the final runner in the field – but he’s nearly impossible to get a handle on.

He’s only run twice in this country: once over fences and once over hurdles.

He showed huge promise on both occasion – but whether he’s up to tackling Grade 2 opposition on his seasonal debut, is a different matter..

In short, it’s a race that is just too difficult to call – though I suspect if you are guided by the market close to the off, you won’t go far wrong…

There’s not much else of interest on a generally disappointing card.

The only other horse to catch my eye, is War Singer who runs in the handicap hurdle at 1:25.

I noticed him travelling well in a class 2 handicap hurdle at Ascot a fortnight ago.

He ultimately finished well beaten that day – but I felt he showed some promise.

The handicapper disagreed and dropped him 4lb for the run – however that means he can get into this lower grade 0-130 race off top weight.

The problem with him, is that he’s a quirky character.

He sports a fine range of head accessories: Cheek pieces, a tongue tie and a hood.

The suggestion is that he’s not straight forward !

Often, horses like him can appear to be travelling in a race – but just can’t be made to go on (the various pieces of equipment are there to try and make them concentrate).

I suspect that is the case with him – but I’ll be keeping an eye him, just in case…

Kelso

The high light of the Kelso card for me – and one of the high lights of the day, will be the appearance of Seeyouatmidnight in the novice chase at 12:30.

As I’ve mentioned previously, I’m a big fan of his – and have actually backed him at silly prices, for this seasons RSA chase.

I fancied him for his debut run at Carlisle, early last month – but Silsol got the better of him.

On 8lb better terms, over a more suitable trip and on more suitable ground, I’ll be hugely disappointed if Seeyouatmidnight doesn’t gain his revenge today.

In fairness, there are some decent performers in the field – but, all things being equal, I would expect the big 2 to dominate.

I spent a lot of time looking at the handicap chase at 2:15 – and I can reveal that nothing is going to win it !

Every runner in the field has a significant issue, which is going to stop it from winning – so I’m not sure how it will all end up !

I guess by default, Vivaldi Collonges could well come home in front – but at 7/4, he was one I really wanted to be taking on.

However, with question marks over their ability to get the trip – or just their ability – I can’t find anything to oppose him with.

Maybe Firth of Clyde will respond positively to a step up in trip – but then again…

Finally, I did briefly toy with the idea of tipping Kilquiggan in the closing handicap hurdle.

He caught my eye at Ayr last time – despite finishing last !

His best run so far is also over this course in the heavy – when he didn’t quite get home over 3m3f – todays 2m6f should be fine for him.
The trouble is, it’s impossible to get a proper handle on many of his rivals.

Now I’m pretty sure that most of them will be moderate – but at this level, there is always a chance that one or two will have been hiding their lights behind a bushel..

As he’s 12/1, I guess I could have gone EW – but I’ve opted not to.

Some of you may feel that was the wrong decision…

Here’s hoping for a great day if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.