Review of the day

It felt like a case of what might have been, today…

As you are aware, I’ve been playing things very tightly recently – because of the small margins in the market and the uncertainty over the ground.

I know that it’s not generally the best approach – but there are times when I feel it is the most prudent.

It possibly saved us a point yesterday – but it cost us a bit more than that today…

With a slightly more cavalier attitude, we would have been on both Flemenstar and The last Samuri – but my more cautious approach saw us on neither (officially speaking, anyway !).

Flemenstar was the tougher one to take, because of the price – but probably the easier to explain.

I felt that in order to win, he would need Un De Sceaux to seriously under perform (or fall).

I don’t like tipping in the hope that something goes wrong for one of the other runners – so I didn’t feel I could tip Flemenstar.

I guess he could still have placed, even if Un De Sceaux had stood up – but we would effectively have got 5/2 on that happening – and I didn’t feel that offered sufficient value (though I did consider it).

In truth, if Un De Sceaux hadn’t fallen at the second last, Flemenstar may well have finished third (as I think Simply Ned would have finished his race more strongly).

As so often, they are fine lines…

I also resisted the temptation to tip The Last Samuri. – but that was purely down to the price.

I didn’t feel that 6/1 offered much (if anything) in the way of value, in a competitive 15 runner handicap.

As happened with Ned Stark, he could easily have been hampered in the race – and I wasn’t entirely convinced the track would suit him either.

Doubts are all part and parcel of the game – but there is very little margin for error at 6/1.

As it happened, everything went right for The Last Samuri and he got up close home to win.

In contrast, Ballyhague Bay was beaten not long after half way – and appears to be in the grip of the handicapper…

Earlier in the afternoon, Unzing had disappointed at Limerick.

There was no obvious reason for him not performing, so I can’t really offer an explanation.

It was disappointing because as you doubtless gathered, I fancied him quite strongly…

The final 2 tips of the day ran in the Paddy Power chase and whilst neither of them really featured, hopefully most of you managed to pick up a small return…

That was courtesy of The Job is Right, who ran on strongly after jumping the last, to grab a highly unlikely fifth place.

As all bar a couple of the bookmakers were paying on the first five home, he will be recorded officially, as having placed…

Captain Von Trappe was pulled up in the race – it all seemed a bit much for him…

Elsewhere, Sprinter Sacre showed he had guts (something we’d not really seen previously) as well as talent, when winning the Desert Orchid chase.

It looks pretty clear that he’s not the horse he once was - but he’s still pretty useful, as a hard fought victory over Sire de Grugy demonstrated.

The race might not have blown open the betting for the Queen Mother Champion chasse – but coupled with Un De Sceauxs defeat, it certainly made things more interesting…

In the Wayward Lad novice chase, Ar Mad showed real tenacity to get back up having been headed by Vanituex; whilst Desert Queen also showed great courage – but having tried to take every hurdle home with her, couldn’t resist the late challenge of Cannon Fodder, in the mares handicap hurdle.

The first 3 places in the final race on the card, were filled by 3 of the 5 horses that I nominated as potential big improvers.

It’s not the first time I’ve pulled off that particular trick this season.

The tricast paid £112 - which makes you think…

TVB.