Daily write-up - Dec 19th

There are 4 NH meetings this afternoon: Ascot, Haydock and Newcastle in the UK – plus Fairyhouse in Ireland.

Whilst the action at Ascot is top class – it’s a little disappointing elsewhere…

I guess I had little expectation of Fairyhouse (the glut of racing in Ireland over the Christmas period means that not much happens in the 2 weeks prior); but the Newcastle card is very low key – and whilst there are a couple of interesting race at Haydock, the card in general is under whelming…

I’ve therefore focused my attentions on Ascot – but they are not easy races to work out !

I’ve ended up chancing my arm in a few of the races – so we’ll have to hope our luck is in.

I’ve no doubt that I’ve come up with a few ‘value’ selections – though whether they can turn themselves into profitable selections, only time will tell.

Fingers crossed !

Here is the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Ascot

12:40

Pyrshan caught my eye last time out, when travelling strongly in a fair 3m handicap hurdle at Kempton.

He didn’t quite get home that day and faded into fourth up the straight. However it was only his second run back after his summer break, so maybe he still needed it a little.

It was certainly a big improvement on his first run back – and some horses do need a couple of outings to reach their peak.

His debut run over hurdles, just over 12 months ago, suggests he could be very well handicapped today.

He finished second to Ordo ab Chao that day, beaten 4 lengths, in receipt of 7lb.
However as that one is now rated 144, it could be argued that Pyrshan ran to a mark of around 130.

He runs off 113 today – so potentially could have almost a stone in hand.

He also comes from a stable in sparking form: that of Graeme McPherson. He is the only horse that the trainer sends to Ascot – and the only ride on the day for stable jockey Keilan Woods. So the subtle signs like him too !

I would have a slight concern over his stamina if the ground got really soft – but hopefully that won’t be the case.

The race is the sort, where literally any of the runners could be dangers. However I doubt many are as potentially well handicapped, so hopefully that will get him home in front !

0.25pt win Pyrshan 12/1

13:50

Johnny Og had only run twice over fences, but he’s caught my eye on both occasions.

First time was in October, when he won on his chasing debut at Stratford.

He led throughout that day and basically jumped his rivals into the ground. It was an impressive performance.

Following that run, he was stepped up in class for a hot novice handicap chase at Newburys Hennessy meeting.

Again, I felt he ran really well. Matching strides with the potentially top class Arzal, until that one powered away from him up the straight.

Johnny Og weakened when beaten and ultimately only finished fifth.

However, I still think it was a respectable run – and he’s been dropped a pound on the back of it.

If he was guaranteed an uncontested lead today, I would be pretty keen on him (despite the price !) – but unfortunately, that’s not the case,

Dartford Warbler, Big Casino and Malibu Son all like to lead, so Johnny Og is unlikely to get an easy time of it up front.

That said, I suspect he will still lead, as the last 2 named are likely to drop in behind him.

Dartford Warbler is the potential issue – but I suspect Johnny will be prepared to race alongside him if necessary.
Not that this race is just down to pace !

In truth, there are not many in it that I wouldn’t give a chance to.

I think La Vaticane is the most likely winner - but unfortunately, so does the market.
Today will be her third run on British soil and I think she now has her ideal conditions.

She will take some beating and I would have saved on her at greater than 5/1.

Ultragold is another I fear. We were on him last Friday, when he took a crashing fall at Cheltenham. He looked to be going very well at the time – but I am concerned about how quickly he is returning to action.

I also have reservations about Mon Successeur. He has run 3 really good races this season – but they have all been hard fought affairs – and he’s only a 4 year old.

Marcilhac is the potential fly in the ointment – particularly as he is trained by Venetia.
He’s not been seen for over 600 days – but if he’s strong in the market, I would be fearful.

0.25pt win Johnny Og 33/1

3:00

This is a particularly strong race – and one in which it is possible to make a case for just about all of the 13 runners…

The most obvious one is Pendra.

He won a very similar race over course and distance last month, by a comfortable 3 lengths. He has been raised 7lb for that win – but if he’s in the same form, that probably won’t be enough.

Todays opposition is stronger – but he seems perfectly suited to conditions and simply has to go close. As with La Vaticane in the previous race, I considered a saver on him.

I would certainly prefer him to the other market leaders, Fingals Bay and Salubrious – even though I acknowledge that both of them are capable of going very close.

The same is true of The Young Master – though I do wonder if he is plateauing a little…

Houblon Des Obeaux is potential very well handicapped.

He won this race 2 years ago off a mark 2lb higher than he runs off today –and finished second 12 months ago off an 11lb higher mark.
If you are just interested in handicapping, then he has to be the one for you…

That said, he was well handicapped when he ran in the Hennessy last time – and he ran no sort of a race that day.
He also had more suitable underfoot conditions – so despite his seemingly good mark, I am passing on him.

Instead, I am opting for one who is also potentially very well handicapped – however, he ran with distinct promise last time out: The Giant Bolster.

He also ran in the Hennessy last time out – but unlike Houblon, raced with real zest.
Up with the leaders throughout, he only tired up the home straight.

It was his first run of the campaign, so he could well improve for it – and if he does, he could laugh at a mark of 149.

My concerns with him, are the track – and possibly the ground.

He seems to ideally want left handed (preferably Cheltenham) – and decent ground.
That said, he has won right handed and on heavy, so they are not absolutely essential.

If Tom Scudamore can get him jumping close to the pace, then I think we just might  see him rolling back the years…

Of the others, then the long absent Gullinbursti and Katenko help make this a fascinating race.

Both would be serious dangers if able to run close to their best.

0.25pt win The Giant Bolster 25/1

3:35

The toughest race of the day is saved until last…

21 runners – and most in with some kind of a chance.

I’ve opted to split stakes between 2: Zarib and Vicenzo Mio.

The former was arguably a little unlucky not to win the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival.

He was maybe delivered a touch early that day and couldn’t sustain his run up the hill, eventually finishing sixth.

He had one more run last season, but was probably past his peak.
Conversely, he probably wasn’t at his peak on his seasonal debut, when he finished third to the high class Irving, in the Elite hurdle at Wincanton.

With that run under his belt, I think he should be spot on today – and he gets to run off exactly the same mark as in the Fred Winter, so is well enough handicapped, with loads of potential as well…

If I have a concern, it is that he might not be quite mature enough for the challenge.

4 year olds don’t have a great record in this race and whilst he is a relatively battle hardened horse (ran on the flat), it is still a slight concern.

At 5 years old, Vicenzo Mio is the ideal age for the race.

Old enough to have fully matured – but young enough to still have plenty of scope for improvement.

I was quite keen on him when he made his seasonal debut at Sandown early in November – but he ran as if needing the run that day.

He still looked like he would benefit from the outing next time, when going close at the same course.

He should be spot on today – and with Harry Cobden claiming a valuable 7lb, he could be very well weighted.

Of the others, then I do fear Winner Massagot – mainly because of how positive his trainer, Alan King, has been about him.
That said, I would be slightly concerned that he might lack the maturity for such a tough race.

There are plenty of others who could also be given a chance - but it’s that kind of a race.

Hopefully one of the two I’ve chosen to side with, will justify my faith.

0.25pt win Zarib 14/1

0.125pt win Vicenzo Mio 20/1

The graduation race at 1:15, is an impossible one to call, due to the presence of Blue Fashion…

He’s never jumped a fence in public, but if he’s as good over fences as he was at his peak over hurdles he should win this race easily.

That said, he’s a horse who has had physical issues – so that would also be a concern.

Ignoring him, I would prefer Mala Beach to Voix Deau – but he’s not cast iron.

I would also give Royal Regatta a chance – and wouldn’t completely rule out Kings Lad, who seems to be better going right handed.

Like I say, too tough a race to consider getting involved with.

The Long Walk hurdle at 2:25 doesn’t look too tough – but I can’t see an angle into it either…

It’s hard to look beyond the 3 market principals – but not easy to choose between them, either…

In truth Reve De Sivola should be easily dismissed – but you know he will have been primed to the minute for this race.

Unlike the other 2, his season will revolve completely around today – that makes him a dangerous opponent.

I would prefer Saphir Du Rheu to Thistlecrack – because I think he’s the better horse.
That said, I wouldn’t prefer him enough to consider taking the 9/4 that is on offer…

The others don’t look good enough – though it wouldn’t massively surprise me if one of them improved sufficiently to put down a challenge.

The 4 year old Karezak is perhaps the most interesting, as he has the most scope.

That said, I have a sneaking feeling hat Taglietelle could run a very big race…

Haydock

The ground at Haydock is likely to be very soft…

In the opener, I was half interested in Fatcatinthehat – but only because of his trainer.

The horse was formerly trained by Willie Mullins (and owned by Rich Ricci – the fat cat in the hat !) – but is now with Harry Whittington.

Young Harry can do little wrong at the moment – and if he can rekindle the Fatcats flame, it will be another feather in his cap.

In the mares novice hurdle at 12:55, it looks significant that Harry Skelton rides Yes I Did.

He has then got to travel down to Ascot, to partner Zarib in the Ladbroke – but the very fact he comes to Haydock at all, suggests he thinks he’s got a chance of a winner.

He’s got fancied mounts in the 2 previous races as well – but I do like the look of Yes I Did, who I think should be better suited to the heavy ground, than a number of her rivals..

In the handicap chase at 1:30, Whispering Harry looks a fair bet at 4/1 (if you can get it !) to follow up his win in the corresponding race 12 months ago…

That was achieved off a mark a stone lower than he races off today – but he has improved in the interim.

The trouble is, he faces some potentially interesting rivals – and whilst 4/1 is fair, it’s not much more than that…

In the handicap hurdle at 2:05, Baby King has a chance of following up his last time out win over this course – but only a chance.

He’s off a higher mark today - and faces some potentially useful rivals.

A best price of 9/2 was never going to suck me in…

If I had tipped at Haydock, it would have been in the Tommy Whittle chase at 2:40.

The trouble is, I couldn’t decide what to tip !

Initially I was drawn to Cloudy Too – as he is potentially very well handicapped and ran with a fair amount of promise last time.

That said. I can see no reason why he should beat Final Assault on that form – particularly as that one has plenty of scope for improvement.

However, neither of those 2 may be able to cope with O Maonlai – assuming he himself, can cope with the conditions !

I would be happy enough to take on the favourite Spookydooky, who is up 8lb for winning a race that isn’t working out well.

That said, I could give half a chance to Spirit of Shankly and Plus Jamais – and couldn’t entirely dismiss Sun Cloud, Seventh Sky or Wilton Milan.

Head on the block, I’d go with O Maonlai and hope he handles the conditions.

I might even have taken a risk on him at 7 or 8/1.

However, I can't see much margin at all in a price of 6/1, where there are 5 or 6 others for whom a case can be made.

In the final race on the Haydock card, I might have been interested in Ugly Bug – at a price.

He ran well on his seasonal debut and should relish todays underfoot conditions.
However, this is another tight race and I don’t see a lot of margin in a price of 7/2.

For those of you who want some in running excitement, you could consider backing Sybarite when he starts to lose touch with the pack – and hope that the rest slow down sufficiently to give him a chance of catching them after jumping the last !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.