Daily write-up - Dec 26th

Despite the abandonment of Wetherby and Limerick, there are still 8 NH fixtures taking place today, across the UK and Ireland.

I made an early decision to disregard Fontwell, Sedgefield and Down Royal – and just focus on the other 7 !

Unfortunately, my main focus ended up on Wetherby – and, in strict accordance with Sods Law, it was one of the meetings abandoned this morning…

As a consequence, we are lighter on tips than I expected.

The Kempton card is ferocious – and I don’t think Wincanton is much easier…

There is little to draw me in at Leopardstown – so I was left primarily, with Market Rasen and Huntingdon.

I‘ve ended up with 5 tips across 4 races – but I also have opinions on most of the big races, so lets get started…

Kempton

The undoubted high light of the day – and of the season so far – is the King George VI chase, due off at 3:10.

This feels like a pivotal race in so much as it sees the old guard, represented by Silviniaco Conti and Cue Card, going up against the new kids, in the shape of Don Cossack and Vatour.

It really is as fascinating a steeplechase as you could wish to see – and one in which it is impossible to be adamant about the outcome.

I’m sure everyone will have their own views on the likely result – for me it will be more a case of watch and learn…

If there are any ‘value’ bets in the race, then I suspect they are Silviniaco Conti (who is 10/1 with WH as I type this) – and Al Ferof.

I don’t expect the latter to be able to win – but he can be backed at 25/1(so over 6/1 a place) and I have absolutely no doubt that Dan Skelton will have him trained to the minute.

What a feather it would be in his cap, if he were able to achieve something with the old boy, that former trainer, Paul Nichols, never could.

The previous race on the card is the Christmas hurdle.

I expect this to be won by Faugheen, but if all 5 were guaranteed to go to post – and I could get 8/1, I would tip The New One EW…

On soft ground, I think he will prove superior to Old Guard – and actually would give him a squeak of beating Faugheen.

Certainly, 2/1 on him finishing at least second has quite a bit of appeal.

However it would only take the defection of Sign of a Victory, due to the ground, to completely mess things up – and I’m not prepared to take that chance…

There is a cracking novice handicap chase at 1:25 – but it’s not a race I fancy finding the winner of…

With a straight bat, I think How about It, is a reasonable bet at 14/1 (EW).

However, most of the field have huge scope for improvement – and it’s not impossible that How about It could run really well and only finish fourth or fifth…

Bekkensfirth and Anthony are the obvious improvers in the race: though I suspect they could be eclipsed by Full Shift or West Wizard.
That said, both the latter named are as likely to blow out as they are to win…

Sirabad would be interesting on very soft ground; whilst Buckhorn Timothy should also run well.

On balance another race where a watching brief is the best call…

I was hoping to take a  risk on Tea for Two in the Kauto Star novice chase at 2:00. He has only run once over fences and come up short the twice he’s tried 3 miles – so I thought he might be a price.

However, you can’t beat 5/2 on him – and at that price, I’m half tempted to take him on !

The trouble is, I can’t find anything else in the race that I feel comfortable with.

Southfield Royale might be the one – and 13/2 seems a fair enough price – but he doesn’t grab me quite enough.

The other one of interest, is  L’Unique.
It seems significant that Alan King is persisting with running her in these high quality novice chases and at 20/1+ she could be worth a tiny interest…

The final race on the Kempton card is another fiercely competitive handicap…

If it wasn’t quite so competitive, I would be interested in Billy No Name.
He ran really well last time at Newbury, behind a very progressive horse.

The trouble is, he could easily run into a few very progressive horses, again today…

Sugar Brown, Bells ‘N’ Banjos and Gunner Fifteen, all have the potential to be much better than their current marls.

Of the 3, I would be most interested in Gunner Fifteen on his second run for Harry Fry.

However, it’s guesswork – and we want to be minimising that as much as possible…

Wincanton

1:40

I quite liked the look of Alcala in this – however, I didn’t like his price of 7/2 !

I guess that won’t stop him winning – but it will stop me supporting him.

Instead, I’ve switched my allegiance to Aerlite Supreme.

He ran at Haydock, just last Saturday, in a decent handicap hurdle.

He was well supported in the market that day – and approaching the second last, looked the most likely winner. However, he then stopped as if shot.

I actually found that a bit disconcerting – so was initially surprised to see him out again today.

On closer inspection however, I see that he will be fitted with a tongue strap this afternoon, which puts a different comlexion on things…

Almost certainly, the horse swallowed his tongue at Haydock, which explains why he finished as he did.

Clearly there is a risk with such an animal – but at a price of 20/1, I think it’s a risk worth taking.

The other thing that draws me in, is that his trainer, Evan Williams had also declared Buywise for this race.

He was vying for favouritism but has been withdrawn, leaving Aerlite Supreme as the sole stable representative…

Whether there is anything in that, I don’t know – but it certainly struck me as ‘interesting’…

0.25pt win Aerlite Supreme 20/1

The handicap chase at 3:25, is a real puzzle…

There are 4 horses running in it, who have caught my eye recently:

Morning Reggie, Quite by Chance, Key to the West and Minella Defintiely.

I would expect todays 2 mile trip to be a bit too short for the first 2 named – but if the going is bottomless, their stamina could be a key factor.

I couldn’t discount Une Majeur Aulmes, Bullet Street or Paddy the Stout either, so it has to be a watching race…

Huntingdon

12:15

Aviador caught my eye last time out.

That was on his seasonal debut in a fair race at Kempton, at the end of last month.

He was never really in the hunt that day, but he stayed on very nicely in the closing stages, to finish fifth behind a progressive winner.

Pyrshan finished just in front of him in that race and then went on to finish fourth in a decent race at Ascot, last Saturday (when I tipped him).

Todays race doesn’t look as good as the race which Pyrshan contested, so I’m hopeful that Aviador will be able to at least match his achievement.

It also adds to Aviadors case, that he is trained by Lucy Wadham – and she has been in scintillating form, recently.

There are plenty of potential dangers in the race – though most of the runners do look fairly exposed.

On his return to hurdles Crack of Thunder is probably the one I fear most – but hopefully Aviador will have his measure.

0.25pt win Aviador 11/1

Ratify is yet another who caught my eye last time out…

Again it was on his seasonal debut – this time at Uttoxeter.

He travelled through the race really nicely that day and looked sure to play a hand in the finish, until weakening close home.

He’s been given over a month to recover from that run, so I would expect him to be at his peak today.

I would probably have preferred him to be running over fences today – as he is almost certainly better in that discipline.

He has won 5 times from 15 over fences – but is yet to strike over hurdles.

However, to balance that out, his mark is 13lb lower over hurdles  – and the Uttoxeter run was over hurdles (and it suggested he is handicapped to almost win).

As with Aviador, there are plenty of possible dangers – but nothing that I am particularly fearful of.

It seems significant that Richard Johnson is riding at Huntingdon, so maybe his mount, Being Global, is the one to beat…

0.25pt win Ratify 12/1

Market Rasen

2:45

When I first looked at this race, I was quite keen to be on Chestnut Ben.

He won the corresponding race 12 months ago, from a 3lb higher mark. He also represents the Winks – a combination that I’m particularly keen on – especially as Ryan had chosen to go to Market Rasen is preference to Wetherby (where they should also have had a couple of runners).

However, watching Chestnut Bens latest outing, left me with no option other than to tip Money for Nothing !

The 2 of them ran in the same race at Bangor, and Money for Nothing destroyed Chestnut Ben.

Ultimately, he ‘only’ finished 30 lengths in front of him – but if Money for Nothing hadn’t weakened close home, it would have been double that.

Chestnut Ben gets 1lb in the weights to help him over come that deficit – but simply, that shouldn’t be anywhere near enough…

It is true that Chestnut Ben is likely to be sharper today – however, on only his second run for new connections, I suspect the same will be true of Money for Nothing.

In a pretty weak looking race, the only one I really feared, was Ulbaltique.

At his peak he was rated 137 over hurdles – and he runs off just 117 today.
He even looked initially as if he might be a better chaser than hurdler – so he has to be a danger.

He’s not shown much in his 2 runs this season – but he is the type who could bounce back today.

In the circumstances, I felt he was worth putting up as a saver.

0.375pt win Money for Nothing 7/1 (pre R4)

0.125pt win Ubaltique 4/1 (pre R4)

Leopardstown

There is some interesting racing at Leopardstown - but not much in the way of betting opportunities…

In the handicap hurdle at 1:50, I am very attracted to Dollar and a Dream

He was sent off favourite on his last run, in a really hot handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Paddy Power meeting.

He only finished fourth in that race – but I suspect that would still be good enough to win todays contest.

The booking of 7lb claimer, Donagh Myler is an additional bonus – the only problem is the price, considering the field size.

He’s a 7/2 shot – though in truth that’s probably fair enough.

I certainly wouldn’t put off anyone form supporting him…

In the handicap chase at 2:20. I like the look of A Sizing Network – but again, I’m not so keen on the price.

You’ll struggle to beat 4/1 about him – and I do think that’s a bit short, as he’s not likely to have much in hand of his rivals (unlike Dollar and a Dream).

Finally, there may only be 4 runners in the Racing Post novice chase at 2:55 – but it still promises to be quite some contest.
A case of sorts can be made for all 4 – but I think it will come down to whether Ttebbob can put sufficient pressure on the jumping of Douvan.

Nobody has any idea on that score – but it will be fascinating to find out !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !!

TVB.