Daily write-up - Dec 18th

There are 2 NH meeting this afternoon: at Ascot and Uttoxeter.

Apologies for messing around with the tip timings this morning – ‘real life’ intervened…

I’ve got an infection in my finger – and the only time I could get to see a nurse was 8:30.

It seemed wrong to say no because I needed to issue some tips !

Ideally I would have liked to wait a little longer before sending them out (due to the fragility of the markets) – but hopefully most of you got the odds (or pretty close).

Here’s the rationale for the tips – and a few other thoughts…

Ascot

3:05

The market for this race, is dominated by the Gordon Elliot trained Woodford Island.

He was a bit of an eye catcher last time out – and Elliot is developing such a reputation, that it is no surprise to see him heading the market.

However, whilst I respect his chance, I do think that 3/1 is pretty short for a relatively exposed horse, in what is a hot handicap.

I’ve therefore decided to take him on with a couple…

The first is the Jonjo O’Neill trained Sebastian Beach.

A decent flat horse (rated 84), he made a promising transition to hurdles last season – and at one point, looked like he might be Triumph hurdle class.

That proved not to be the case, and he ran in the Fred Winter at the festival, instead.

He didn’t cut much ice in that race – nor in his only subsequent run over hurdles last season – or indeed his 2 runs on the flat in the spring.

However, he showed distinct promise on his return to action, in a 3 mile hurdle at Chepstow a fortnight ago.

He travelled with purpose there – but didn’t quite get home.

Whether that was a lack of peak fitness - or him finding the trip too far, I don’t know, but I expect to see better this afternoon.

It will help a little that the handicapper dropped him 2lb for that run – but even more that he’s got Patrick Cowley claiming 8lb for the saddle (up against other amateurs).
Depending on how you view it, he can be considered very well handicapped…

That said, I do think he’s a handicapper – and I think there is a chance that Duke Des Champs may be better than that level.
After just 2 runs over hurdles, it is impossible to be adamant – but if he is, then he will laugh at a rating of 128.

In addition to Woodford Island, you have to respect the chances of Shadarpour and Pithivier: but in Sebastian Beach and Duke Des Champs, I think we have a well handicapped horse and a potential graded hurdler.
Between them, I hope they are good enough to win the day.

0.25pt win Sebastian Beach 14/1

0.125pt win Duke Des Champs 6/1

There are some really interesting races on the Ascot card – but betting opportunities are thin on the ground…

The nearest I got to another tip, was Ink Master, who runs in the novice handicap chase at 1:20.
He is making his fencing debut today, so his ability to jump has to be taken on trust.
However, he has impressed me as a hurdler, so if he does jump round OK, I think he is the one to beat.
That said, the opposition today, isn’t weak.

Ozzy Thomas has some excellent form in the book – and definitely sets the standard; whilst Dusky Lark also ran with credit last time out.
There is also our old friend, Blades Lad, who has travelled a long way for this race.

I’m sure he is better than his current mark – though whether he can demonstrate that at Ascot, is a different matter (I would prefer to support him in a lesser race, at a small northern track).

Yanworth is a very short priced favourite for the novice hurdle at 1:55 – too short, if you ask me…

Yes, he’s the most likely winner – but up against 3 decent rivals, I don’t think he’s a 4/11 shot. He has been priced up, primarily on reputation.

If he is to be beaten, All Set to Go is probably the most likely: though victory for either Charbel or Aqua Dude, wouldn’t completely shock me.

The Noel novice chase at 2:30, is an absolute cracker.

Thomas Brown heads the market, with Le Mercurey second best.

Both of them are potential top class chasers – so we should really learn something this afternoon.

In terms of form in the book, then Junction Fourteen just about sets the standard. However, he has to give weight to the rest of the field and there is a suspicion that he’s not from the very top draw.

If there s to be a shock, then I would nominate Out Sam as the one most likely to cause it.

He makes his chasing debut today – but I expect him to have been well schooled.

He cost £145K when sold in May, so connections will have high hopes.
Certainly, if he isn’t up to the job today, I would expect him to start repaying their investment pretty soon.

Uttoxeter

2:55

There is very little of interest on the Uttoxeter card – the exception being the handicap chase at 2:55…

I suspect that the ground at Uttoxeter will be very heavy - and that is not going to suit all of the runners.

One horse who will like it, is Brave Buck.
He has shown himself very well suited to heavy ground, with his 3 career wins coming in desperate conditions.

The most recent of those was at Hexham just over a year ago, when he battled through the mud for a tenacious victory.

That win was a achieved off a mark of 100, so it’s a little surprising to see him back on that rating just 2 runs later.

His only other run last season, was when disappointing at Warwick.

However, there didn’t look much wrong with him when he reappeared at Wetherby last month.

He ran a perfectly respectable race that day: in the firing line until the second last, it was only after jumping that fence, that he weakened.
It’s reasonable to think he will have come on for that run – and it was very generous of the official handicapped to drop him 4lb on the back of it.

Brave Buck is only 7 years old, so should have plenty of improvement in him. He gets his ideal conditions today –and is running off a mark he’s won from before.
In short, there are plenty of positives…

The concern is the opposition, as this is quite a strong race for the grade.

That said, Don’t Hang About, Bus Named Desire and Mr McGregor are all unproven in very heavy ground, so that would be a worry for all 3.
Armedanddangerous is proven on the ground – and is potentially well handicapped.
However he doesn’t have the scope of Brave Buck.

0.375pt win Brave Buck 13/2

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.