Daily write-up - Dec 10th

There are 4 NH meetings today: Warwick, Taunton and Newcastle in the UK – plus Punchestown in Ireland.

Finding anything to tip at the moment, is a bit of a struggle…

It’s the same old issues: very tight prices; extremely fragile markets; and uncertainty over the weather/ground.

I could easily go a week at the moment, and find only one or two horses that I want (and am able) to tip.

It takes a lot of stamina to keep ploughing through races, knowing that’s the case.

However, options are limited.

I either do what I’m doing; tip regardless of the issues; or just have more days off !

I think one of my biggest concerns, is that it creates huge expectations (and consequently pressure) for the weekends.

I feel like I need to find something every Saturday – and yet there are Saturdays (like last Saturday), when finding one isn’t easy…

Anyway, I’ll continue down my path – hopefully with your understanding and sympathy

So far as today is concerned, then 4 meetings – but little to get excited about.

I looked at all the meetings – but didn’t find anything that compelled (or even tempted) me to tip is.

The closest I got was at Warwick – but uncertainty over the weather has caused me to resist.

Here are my brief thoughts.

Warwick

On a pretty uninspiring card, the only race of interest is the handicap chase at 2:30.

Cyclop has been put in a very short price favourite on the back of an unlucky fall, last week at Market Rasen.

He had the race in the bag when coming down at the second last that day, and is virtually a winner without a penalty, today…

Certainly if he had stayed on his feet, he would be running off a 7lb higher mark today – and that’s also the amount by which the official handicapper has raised him.

In theory, he must have a great chance today – but last weeks race was very weak, and it was run in heavy ground – and he did fall ! So in the circumstances, I would be quite happy to take him on at 2/1.

The problem is, with what..?

There are question marks against all of his opponents – so finding one has to involve some compromise.

If the ground had been good, I would have been very keen on Georgie Lad.

However, he really seemed to struggle last time out at Exeter, in heavy ground.

I guess he might get away with it today, if the ground is only soft – but with rain in the air, it’s impossible to know what the situation will be, come the off.

In the circumstances, it therefore has to be a watching brief…

Taunton

The big race of the day, is the handicap chase off at 3:10.

Barrakilla stands out in this, and with a straight bat, he would almost look like a good thing.

He’s been competing with credit in much stronger company and on his penultimate outing, finished second in the class 1 Caspian Caviar Gold cup (when sent off favourite).

Simply, his form is much better than that of any of his rivals - and he looks a potentially very well handicapped horse.

However, a couple of things trouble me: firstly why is he running in a race worth just over £8K to the winner, when, for example, he would have a very good chance in Saturdays Caspian Caviar Gold Cup (worth nearly 10 times that amount); and secondly, why is he running over a trip of 2m2f, when he really needs a trip of 2m4f (possible further).

I might be wrong, but it smacks to me of getting a horse fit whilst not affecting its mark.

Ofcourse, if I’m wrong, then I would expect him to be backed – and properly backed – because he could have a stone in hand.

If he’s weak in the market however, I wouldn’t want to touch him.

That said, I would still have an issue finding something to win the race.

Dual course winner Caesar Milan looks the one with least question marks against him – but he hardly looks a rock solid option.

Another watching race…

I did think there might be a chance that I could tip Sidbury Hill in the novice handicap chase at 2:10.

He was pulled up last time out – but that doesn’t tell the story.

He was still tanking when slipping on landing after the cross fence at Newbury.

My hope was that others wouldn’t have picked up on that - but they have !

He opened at 11/2 (which seemed a little tight) – but was soon in to 3/1 !

People miss very little nowadays…

There is no value at that price – never mind the 11/4 he is now…

Newcastle

The only race of interest on the Newcastle card is the handicap chase at 2:50.

I spent a bit of time looking at it – but didn’t reach a firm conclusion.

There have a couple of non runners this morning – and it now looks a match between Oscar Lateen (the favourite) and Rupert Bear (the second favourite !).

The latter will love the ground - but is not guaranteed to stay the trip.
The former looks the solid option – but is an 5/4 shot !

That’s about it, really !

Punchestown

A couple of this seasons new friends, provide the main interest at Punchestown…

In the Hunter Chase at 1:25, Finny Maguire has possibly his first ride over fences, under rules…

He partners the David Christie trainer Not Before Eight – and whilst no world beater, his form entitle s his to go pretty close in todays company.

In the final race on the card, Repeater looks to avenge his unlucky defeat at Thurles last time out, when we were on him.

I think he has every chance of doing so – however, he is running off a mark 6lb higher today, in a stronger race – and is a best price of 11/2.

In those circumstances, it is difficult to tip him again…

Here’s hoping you have a great day if you do choose to get involved.

TVB.