Thursday 31 December 2015

Review of the day

I little bit like at Market Rasen on Saturday, I felt we knew our fate after a couple of fences today…

In truth, I was fearful before the tapes even went up.
It’s rare that a front runner drifts on BF – yet Kerryhead Storm was available at just over 4/1 at the off.

He was 7/2 when I tipped him this morning – and 3/1 not long after – a drift like that was unlikely to be a good thing…

I guess in part, it was because some one knew that he wasn’t likely to get the uncontested lead I’d hoped for.

As it turned out, he barely managed to lead at all – with Moscow Me and Gold Ingot hassling him throughout the early stages of the race.

That wasn’t how it was supposed to be.
He was supposed to be bossing the field – not competing for the lead.

By half way, he was struggling in third place and whilst he stuck to his task as best he could, he was always fighting a losing battle.

He eventually came home a well beaten fourth – behind Moscow Me and Gold Ingot.

Again, it was disappointing stuff – and I need to think about whether I should be tipping in these small field, relatively low grade races…

In the other handicap chase on the Leicester card, I anticipated the pace a bit more successfully.
Valadom did get the better of the ‘battle’ with Noble Legend – but he was unable to withstand Mystifiable late on.
As I said this morning, that one always had the potential to be the joker in the pack – and backed down from 10/1 early to 9/2 at the off, I wasn’t too surprised to see him come home in front.

Valadom ran a very honest race – and on better ground, with no competition for the lead, he will take a lot of beating from his current mark.

In the final race on the Leicester card, I was most interested in Arkaim. However, Tara Flow was one of the ones I feared – if strong in the betting.
He was sent off a well backed 9/4 fav and duly came home an easy winner…

Over in Ireland, Don Poli won the Lexus – but only just…
As expected, On His Own put the pace to the race – and was still in with a chance turning for home.
However Don Poli was within striking distance - and if that’s the case, he normally manages to get there.

I would still be a bit concerned about him in the Gold Cup – though you do have to admire his battling qualities.

Certainly a narrow defeat of First Lieutenant, Fox Rock and On His Own, is at least a stone below what will be required to win in March.

Bryan Cooper seemed to get his fractions about right in the Christmas hurdle - but couldn’t withstand the late challenge of the Gigginstown owned Prince of Scars.
That one had won handicaps on his 2 latest runs, so was stepping up markedly in class to land the grade 1 prize.
It will be interesting to see how far he can go – but in the relatively weak staying hurdle division, it might be prudent not to underestimate him.

In the handicap hurdle on the card, Forever Gold got he better of Russian Bill.
Malt Gem ran a reasonable, race – but was left behind from the second last.

Finally, the beginners chase was won by Zabana, in quite impressive style.
He could well develop into a contender for the JLT chase at the festival.

TVB.

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