Daily write-up - Dec 17th

There are just the 2 NH meetings this afternoon: at Exeter and Towcester.

Pretty uninspiring stuff it is as well…

Exeter has actually put on some decent races – but the fields have cut up badly, with the main 4 races only drawing 20 runners between them.

The heavy ground is doubtless a big factor - plus the proximity of Christmas.
Whatever the reasons, they aren’t really races which encourage betting…

The Towcester card is better from that perspective – but it is low grade and therefore comes with it’s own issues.

I’ve made the decision that I won’t tip early in anything lower than class 3 – and as class 4 is the highest on the Towcester card, there were never going to be any early tips from there.

I don’t think any of us can afford to be betting in the low grade events, early in the day.
As has been discussed on the forum, doing so, invariably results in account closures.

Simply, it isn’t worth it, if you take your betting seriously (and I’m guessing most of you do !).

Despite all this, we have ended up with one small tip on the day.

It’s not one I feel strongly about – but I do think it represents a bit of value (and is likely to continue to do so, because of the opposition it faces).

Here is the rationale – and a few other brief thoughts…

Towcester

2:10

The sizes of the fields and the competitiveness of the races, meant that this was the only race on the day, in which I could realistically consider tipping…

When I first looked at it, I was drawn to Glenwood Star, who was a fair hurdler last season and has the scope to make a better chaser.

Unfortunately, the recent upturn in the fortunes of the Rebecca Curtis stable means that everyone else has been drawn to it as well – which is a shame.

Certainly I wouldn’t put anyone off backing it – but 4/1 is tight enough in a race in which most have a chance…

Instead, I’ve switched allegiance to Like Sully.

I had a sneaky fancy for him last time he ran, in a better race than this, at Sandown.

He was backed that day – and ran a fair race to finish fifth.

That was his chasing debut – and on ground quicker than he would ideally want, I thought he performed with credit.

He’ll need to step up a bit on that run to win today – but I think he might well do just that.

Certainly the slightly longer trip will help – as will the softer ground.

The fact he was dropped 2lb for the run, won’t harm his chances either.

However, as I said earlier, the race is quite open.

The chances of market leaders Monderon and St Johns Point, are there for all to see.

I also quite like Iora Glass as a horse and could see him running better than his odds suggest.

I’m hoping that Waldorf Salad will need the run: whilst Chicoria ran lamentably last time and couldn’t be supported on the back of that.

Golan Dancer is the only other runner in the race – and whilst I wouldn’t completely dismiss him, he is held by Like Sully on hurdles form from last season.

This isn’t a race where I would be categoric about the outcome – but I think Like Sully has a chance and offers some value.

Glenwood Star is the one I fear – but all of the value has been squeezed from his price…

0.25pt win Like Sully 8/1

I’ll be a bit surprised if the handicap chase at 1:10 isn’t won by one of the market principals…

Smart Exit has been unlucky to bump into 2 big improvers on his last 2 runs – and has gone up 6lb for finishing second twice.

He deservers to get his head in front – and I think he might just do that, this afternoon.
Newton Thistle is the danger. Already twice a winner over course and distance, he is likely to improve on his seasonal debut run at Chepstow (where he still had half a chance, when falling).

My feeling is that Smart Exit is the more talented animal – but if serious money came for Newton Thistle, I would be concerned.

Tea Caddy is the other one in the race, worthy of a mention, as she caught my eye travelling well, last time out.

However, that was over a month ago and I would have liked to see her out sooner.

The handicap hurdle at 1:40 is a pretty desperate affair…

Burgundy Betty is the winner by default – but how she can be 2/1 any race, is beyond me !

In the circumstances, I was hoping I could make a case for Kavanaghs Corner.

He was quite well supported on his seasonal/handicap debut last time out – but was pulled up.

I watched the race again last night, hoping to find some positives – and whilst it is true that he raced prominently and maybe needed the run. The way he dropped out of things when headed, was quite alarming.

Too alarming to be recommending him as a wager, that’s for sure !

Exeter

There is very little to get excited about at Exeter…

The handicap hurdle at 1:20 should be taken by the favourite, For Good Measure.
He was massively impressive last week at Uttoxeter – and is turned out under a 7lb penalty before his 17lb weight rise kicks in.

Assuming he’s over last weeks ‘exertions’, he should take todays race with the minimum of fuss.

The graduation chase at 1:50 is the most valuable race of the day.

With the ground unlikely to suit Dunraven Storm (and that’s ignoring his ongoing jumping issues!); and Cash and Go likely to improve for the run; this looks to be between Solar Impulse and Kylemore Lough.
I’d have a slight preference for the former – so as he’s 3/1 and the latter 6/4, it’s an easy choice to make…

I would expect Bitofapuzzle to take the mares chase at 2:20 – but you are not going to get rich, backing her at 4/9.

Finally, I would consider taking Our Cat against he market principals in the handicap chase at 2:50.

He was a good winner on this card 12 months ago – and whilst he has done nothing since, he’s only had 3 goes…

That said, his price of 9/2 doesn’t leave a lot of margin for error…

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.