There are 3 NH meetings this afternoon: at Haydock,
Carlisle and Newton Abbot.
The
final Saturday of the TVB season – and I really was hoping that I could go out
with a bang.
However, after over 2 weeks without rain, the heavens are
going to open today.
In a
way, it seems very appropriate.
I’ve
absolutely no idea what he ground will be like this afternoon – and that’s a
position I’ve been in many time before this season.
It
is currently described as ‘good’ at Haydock – but it’s drizzling.
If
there is just a bit of drizzle, it will probably stay good – and suit fast
ground horses.
However, the forecast is for heavy rain later - and if
that materialises, mud larks could be in their element.
Such
uncertainty makes tipping nearly impossible.
Like
I say, I’ve been here many times before this season – but it remains very
frustrating (maybe I should switch to the AW – if it weren’t for the painfully
dull racing !)
As a
consequence, you have my thoughts for the day – but not much in the way of
tips.
Such
is life…
Haydock
1:25: Hannahs Princess and Midnight Jazz are the
two I like most in this.
They
met in the qualifier for this race, run at Exeter last month.
Hannah’s Princess came out on top that day – but is 6lb
worse off today. That should make things close between the 2 – though Hannah’s
Princess has a marked preference for decent ground, so if the rain does come,
that won’t suit her.
Midnight Jazz is also double the price: and has some
other decent form to her name.
Most
notably, her fourth to Lily Waugh at Cheltenham in December, when she was bang
there in contention and only weakened up the hill.
If
there is an issue with Midnight Jazz, it’s that she has few secrets from the
handicapper – but I think she will run a big race.
Of
the others, then Taweyla has a fair bit of potential – as too, at a bigger
price, does Bella.
Whilst Woodland Walk could be interesting, though her
stable has been badly out of form this winter.
The
other one worth a mention, is Lady of Longstone.
She
could be a good back to lay in running option, as she tends to front run – and
often lasts longer than expected.
2:00: Raktiman, Ballybolley and The Cobbler Swayne
are the 3 that interest me most in this – though unfortunately, they are the 3
market leaders…
I
would probably have a slight preference for Ballyboley – though he has quite a
hard race last Saturday, so I would be a little fearful that may have left a
mark.
Raktiman was very impressive last time at Catterick – and
looks like he has been aimed at this race.
However, he was given a 9lb rise for that win – and steps
up in grade this afternoon.
The
Cobbler Swayne was well behind Raktiman at Catterick - but Lucinda Russell was
struggling for form at that time.
He
came out next time and won at Ayr – and remains a horse of some
potential.
Any
rain that falls, will improve the chances of Cloudy Bob; whilst market support
for Dartford Warbler would definitely make him of interest…
2:35: Petethepear is the one that interests me
most in this.
He
has only run 6 times in his life: once in an Irish bumper last season: and 5
times for current trainer Stuart Edmunds, this season.
He
was very well supported on his stable debut at Chepstow in September - but could
only finish third in a bumper,
That
was followed by 3 reasonable runs in novice hurdles, before he made his handicap
debut in a competitive race at Ascot, last moth.
He
ran really well that day, looking the most likely winner, until tiring close
home.
He
drops 2 furlongs in trip today – and that should help; whilst the handicapper
has only raised him 1lb for what was a very good run.
He
faces some talented rivals today – but his main rivals have all been hit hard by
the handicapper for recent wins.
Emerging Market is up 12lb for his narrow win at
Doncaster: whilst Fingeronthepulse is a
stone higher than when a comfortable winner at the same course.
Such
significant rises in the handicap will make life very difficult for both of them
and may mean that the biggest challenges to Petethepear come from
elsewhere.
Sykes has operated at a consistent level all year and I
would expect him to run his race; whilst Alzammaar would be a real danger, if
the rain stayed away.
3:10: Leo Luna is potentially the most interesting
one in this.
He
bounced back to form at Warwick last time, with a comfortable defeat of No
Duffer.
He’s
8lb worse off today, which in theory should make it very close between the two.
However, Leo Lunar is still well handicapped on old form – and as the
potentially the only front runner in the race, could get an uncontested
lead.
If that does happen – and he gets into the same rhythm he got into at
Warwick, I think he will be tough to peg back.
By
this point in the afternoon, there has to be a fair chance that the ground will
have deteriorated – which would suit Auldthunder (and not Thinger
Licht).
The
other one worth mentioning at a big price, is Sands Cover.
He
ran well on his penultimate outing at Kempton, before disappointing last time at
Sandown.
If
he bounces back to form today, then he could run into a place – and at 25/1 is
maybe worth a small risk.
3:45: There are 3 previous TVB winning tips
running in this, in the shape of Vendor, Baby King and Mr Fitzroy.
Of the 3,
I would be most interested in Vendor – but only if the ground is on the soft
side.
I
tipped him last time at Newcastle believing he would be running on soft ground –
but it had dried up and that just didn’t suit him.
He’s
been dropped 2lb for that run – and can be competitive off his current mark –
provided conditions are right…
If
the ground is still riding quick, then I would probably opt for El Beau – but
not with a great deal of conviction.
For
those of you interested in back to lay in running options; then Johnny Delta
could be the one.
He
ran well at Musselburgh last time, leading to the final flight.
If
he races in the same way today, I could see him trading quite low in
running.
4:20: There are some seriously out of form sorts
running in this.
6 of
the 9 runners were pulled up last time – which says it all, really.
In
truth, there is a fair chance that one of them will bounce back this afternoon –
but it would be guesswork as to which one.
A
safer bet, would be Achimota – as he’s run consistently all season and could
benefit from stepping up in trip this afternoon.
The
downside is a price of 7/2 – which doesn’t make any appeal.
If
the going gets really heavy, then it will suit Woodford County – and he would
probably become my selection for the race.
The
other one of potential interest, is William Money.
He
won this race 12 months ago – and whilst he’s shown no form since, is 3lb lower
in the handicap today.
If he bounces back to form, he is clearly handicapped
to win.
Newton Abbot
3:15: I think it is worth taking a small risk on
Keel Haul in this…
We
were on him earlier in the season, when he won at the Cheltenham November
meeting; and then when he ran well to be fourth, at the same course in
December.
He’s
disappointed in his 2 runs since then – but has dropped 3lb in the handicap as a
result.
My
suspicion is that Keel Haul is a bit of a ‘thinker’.
He
won last season, at Wincanton, when cheek pieces were applied for the first
time; and his win at Cheltenham this season, was when they were re-applied (they
had been left off on his seasonal debut).
He
wears a visor for the first time today – and I’m pretty sure connections are
hoping that it will make him take more interest in the race.
He was declared
earlier in the week to run at Ludlow, but withdrawn due to the quick ground.
Assuming the forecast rain hits Newton Abbot this afternoon, then I’m
optimistic that he will bounce back to form this afternoon.
Carlisle
3:30: Blakemount was an official eye catcher last
time out, when he ran at Newcastle on the back of a 4 month break.
My
feeling was that he probably needed the run that day – and would therefore be of
interest next time out.
However, I thought he would be given more of a
stamina test than he gets today, so would temper my enthusiasm.
That
said, it doesn’t seem to have tempered the enthusiasm of many !
He
was 3/1 last night – but you can’t beat 6/4 now.
I
find that a little odd – particularly as Sean Quinlan is in the saddle (Danny
Cook tends to ride most of Sue Smiths well backed runners).
In
truth, this race should take little winning – so maybe that accounts for the
confidence behind him.
Run
Ructions Run was installed at 6/4 last night – which on the back of her
lamentable run last week, must have been the worst value of all time.
She’s drifted to 3/1 this morning – which will have been
a factor in the shortening of Blakemount.
Tactics in the race could be interesting, as I suspect
that Blakmount will try to make all – but Top Billing is generally a front
runner (over hurdles).
This
might all work in the favour of Irish raider, Captian Hox – but I think it’s a
race which I’m most likely to just watch.
4:40: I had hoped I’d be able to take a risk on
Carrigdhoun in this.
He
really caught my eye last time out, when travelling very strongly in the
conditions race won by Many Clouds.
He
finished ahead of a number of much higher rated horses that day – but the
handicapper has chosen to ignore the form.
He
might be right to do so, as Carrigdhoun is an exposed horse – and the apparent
‘improvement’ doesn’t really make sense.
However, there is also a chance that the horse is simply
in very good form.
I
honestly thought that the market would be dismissive of him – and expected him
to be available at 5 or 6/1.
However, he’s been put in at just 11/4 – and
that’s too short a price to be taking a risk on.
Certainly, if that was just a flash in the pan, then
there are a few others in the race of interest.
If
Carrighoun does drift out to around 5/1 close to the off, then I’ll take a risk
on him - otherwise, I’ll just be watching.
Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !
TVB.
Advice Summary
Tips
Haydock 2:35 Petethepear 0.25pt win 9/1
Newton Abbot 3:15 Keel Haul 0.25pt win
10/1
Eye Catchers
Carlisle 3:30 Blakemount
