Cheltenham - Day 4

Day 4 of the Cheltenham festival.

Once more into the breach…

It’s been a tough 3 days – though that’s pretty much what I expected.

Generally speaking, the handicaps have been unfathomable (full of plots): and the conditions races too simple.

It makes tipping winners tricky, for a ‘value bettor’ ! (particularly, if you don’t get that bit of luck)

Still, I’ve got one more day to try – and I’m optimistic I’ll go out with a bang !

I’ve got tips in 4 of the races – and thoughts on the other 3.

Fingers crossed !

Cheltenham

1:30: Following last months Spring juvenile hurdle at Leopardstown, I was quite keen on Let’s Dance for the Triumph hurdle.

I made her an official eye catcher - and considered tipping her for the race on a couple of occasions.

However, I resisted – and the closer the race has got, the less keen I’ve become on her chances...

Part of that is because Willie Mullins seems adamant that Footpad is his number one hope (the booking of Ruby Walsh seems to confirm this) – and I’m not so keen on him.

Having thought some more, I reckon the is race more like to be won by a British trainer – with Paul Nicholls or Alan King the most likely to deliver.
Having said that, as they train 7 of the runners between them, it still only halves the field !

Of the 7, then the one I like most is Zubayr.
He is trained by Nicholls and won his only hurdle start to date, at Kempton, last month.

His lack of experience is a worry – but with only 15 runners, I suspect he can overcome it.

I thought quite hard about tipping him – but I eventually decided not to.

I do think he’s the most likely winner – but it’s a very tough race to weigh up – and there is no margin in a best price of 9/2.

The way things have gone this week, makes it difficult not to get drawn into backing a horse, simply because you think it the most likely winner.

But price has to be a key factor when deciding on a bet – and simply, I think the price of Zubayr is too short.

Of the others: then I think that Nicholls’ Connetable also has a chance – and his price of 16/1 looks very fair.

Of the Alan King trained trio, I would slightly favour Who Dares Wins – though it’s not easy to split his representatives.

2:10: The first of the days unfathomable handicaps !
I’d like to make a short-list – but I fear it wouldn’t be that short !

I’ve decided to take just one stab at the race, in the shape of the David Pipe trained Starchitect.

He will be having just his second run for Pipe, having made his debut for the stable in the equally competitive Betfair hurdle.

He ran an absolute screamer in that race, finishing second to Agrapart.

Ultimately he finished quite well beaten – but a shocking blunder at the last exaggerated the winning margin.

He’s been raised 6lb for the run – but that seems fair enough.

Clearly he was sufficiently fit to do himself justice – but there must still be a chance he will improve a little for it.
Furthermore, the form looks rock solid, as the third place horse, Flying Angel, came out next time and won the Imperial Cup.

Starchitect has festival form as well, having finished a good fourth in last years Fred Winter hurdle, when in the care of Donald McCain.
In short, he has a lot going for him – and will hopefully give us a good run for our money.

Whether he will be god enough to win however, is a different matter…

The opposition he faces is quite scary – and not always easy to quantify.

Top of the list of dangers are Great Field and Blue Hell.

Both trained in Ireland – and relatively unexposed – so really could be anything.

Blue Hell has already shown himself a horse of serious ability. On his only outing so far this season, he comfortably beat Diamond King - and whilst the handicapper has had his say, he could still have plenty of improvement in him.

The English trained novices, Wait for Me and Modus, are two others, with significant potential; whilst the Dan Skelton trained Superb Story has clearly been layed out for this race.

At longer prices, I could give Mad Jack Mytton and Hawk High chances, on ground they should both relish.

Whilst I wouldn’t completely dismiss official eye catcher, Kayf Blanco.

Everything is in place for him to run a big race – I would just be concerned that the company might be a little too hot (though at 50/1, 5 places, he could be worth a small risk).

For those of you with a back to lay in running penchant, then Sternrubin could be your boy.

He was disappointing last time out, for no apparent reason  - and it’s disconcerting that Dickie has deserted him – but he’s still likely to go off in front – and trade a fair bit lower in running than his BSP.

2:50: I’m a little surprised that Barters Hill can be backed at 9/2 for this.

He’s been much shorter for most of the season – though I guess the expectation was that the ground wouldn’t be quite so quick.

In truth, I do think he could struggle a bit in the prevailing conditions – and whilst I expect him to run his normal gallant race, I have a feeling that something will outspeed him, close home.

The question is what…

The betting suggests it is most likely to be Shantou Vilage – and that is understandable.

He was a good winner over the course in November – and whilst he was well beaten by Yanworth on his return in  January, there was little disgrace in that.

The faster ground should suit him much better – and he is unlikely to have an issue with the extended trip.

Willie Mullins runs 7 in the race – and whilst the betting suggests his best chances are with Long Dog and Gangster, I prefer Bleu et Rouge and Up for Review.

The former was a good winner of the grade 1 Deloitte novice hurdle last time out – and whilst he’s not guaranteed to stay the trip, if he does, I think he’s the most likely winner.

The latter was well fancied to beat Barters Hill at Doncaster last time – but ran no sort of a race. I would expect him to bounce back and show that running all wrong…

Unowhatimeanharry is also worthy of a mention, as he’s the highest rated horse in the race. However, I suspect that he might be biting off a little too much in this company.

There is an official eye catcher running in the race, in the shape of West Approach.

He was made an eye catcher in the expectation that he would be running in handicaps (off a fair rating). He may well run OK today – but I suspect he will ultimately be outclassed.

In short, I expect Barters Hill to try and make all – but think that either Shantou Village or Bleu et Rouge, will pick him off, close home.

3:30: Whilst this is still a fascinating Gold Cup – it’s not going to be quite the classic that everyone was hoping for…

Injury, early in the season, robbed us of seeing Coneygree defend his crown: whilst the late switch of Vautour, Road to Riches and Valseur Lido to yesterdays Ryanair chase, means that this is effectively a 5 horse race…

That said, they are 5 horses from the very top drawer – and choosing between them isn’t easy…

The weakest of the quintet is probably Smad Place.
He was a hugely impressive winner of the Hennessy – and whilst he disappointed in the King George, he bounced right back to form when taking the Cotswold Chase, on his most recent run (from Many Clouds).

There is a chance he will get an uncontested lead today – and if that is the case – and he gets into a rhythm up front, he won’t be easy to pass.

That said, I do think something will pass him…

Based on his gallant second placing in last years Gold Cup, Djakadm could be the one.

However he has fallen on two of his 3 runs at Cheltenham – and would probably prefer softer ground.

I’m not totally convinced that today will be his day…

I’m not convinced that it will be Don Polis day, either.

His form comes up short, when compared to the other principals - and whilst the has plenty of improvement in him – and an attitude to die for – I just think he could find himself too far out of his ground, when the pace quickens…

And then there were two…

Don Cossack or Cue Card – that is the question…

I can’t believe the season that Cue Card has had – it just goes to show the impact that a trapped epiglottis can have !

With it released, he’s been a revelation - and I would love to see him win this afternoon.

He has the form to do so – and I’m sure he will be tuned to the minute.
However, I’m just not 100% sure about him coming up the hill…

I think Don Cossack will come up the hill.

It’s yet to be proven – but he looks a stayer to me.

He’s tough as well – and very classy.

His Achilles heal is his jumping (at least around Cheltenham) – but I think the quick ground and small field will help with that.

I don’t really see him as a betting proposition – the race is too strong and the price too short - but I do see him as the most likely winner.
That might not stop me from cheering on Cue Card though !!

4:10: Like her or loathe her, it’s good for the game that Victoria Pendleton has a ride in this.

It will get racing on the front pages of the paper, for the right reasons – and in week when equine fatalities have been worryingly high, that has to be a positive.

And in truth, she should have every chance. Her ride, Pacha Du Polder, is certainly good enough to feature (assuming its stamina holds out) – the question is, is she…?!
My feeling is that she’s more likely to fall off than win – but I hope I’m wrong…

Either way, I’m taking Current Event to beat her (and the other 22 runners !).
He was quite well fancied in this race 12 months ago (sent off 8/1), but finished well beaten behind On the Fringe.

However, he should be much better suited by todays quicker ground – and both he and the winner are now a year older.

In the case of Current Event, that means he’s now 9 (and therefore should be at his peak); whilst On the Fringe is now 11 (and possibly a little past his best).

The other positive for Current Event is that his inexperienced jockey from last year, has been replaced by the far more experienced Will Biddick.

Whether all this will be sufficient for him to get the better of On the Fringe is a different matter – but at the respective odds (20/1 and 3/1), I think it’s worth a risk to find out…

As you would expect, most of the others of interest, are near the top of the market.

Paint the Clouds, Aupcharlie, Marito, It Came to Pass and Mendip Express are all possible dangers – but between them, they form the top half of the market.

Of those 5, Aupcharlie, under Jamie Codd, is probably the one I would fear most – though On the Fringe and Nina Carberry, is almost certainly the one to beat.

4:50: 24 horses, many of them unexposed novices; all ridden by conditional jockeys – but there is only one that I ever wanted to be on (and it looks like I’m in good company !).

Those of you with good memories, will recall the race that Squouateur ran in last time out…

That was a very hot handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse last month.

In truth, whilst the race looked hot beforehand – it looks even hotter now !

Total Recall finished sixth in the race and I made him an official eye catcher on the back of it.

He subsequently came out and won another very decent looking handicap at Naas.

Mall Dini finished third in the race – and he came out yesterday and won the Pertemps final !

However, it isn’t just the fact that it was a very hot race – it’s the manner in which  Squouateur won it.

He may only have got home by a couple of lengths – but it really could have been a dozen.

Mark Walsh rode a brilliant race to keep the winning margin respectable – and prevent the horses from taking a massive hike in the ratings.

As a consequence, he gets to run today from a mark 13lb higher.
That sounds quite a lot – but in reality, the British handicapper puts 6lb or so, on the Irish ratings anyway, so he’s really only around 7lb higher.

He would have won from a 7lb higher mark last time – and I suspect it won’t stop him today.

The icing on the cake, is the booking of Jack Kennedy.

He has been a revelation this season – and is definitely a star of the future.

Gordon Elliot has already shown twice this week – with Diamond King and Cause of Causes - what he can do if he has a well handicapped horse on his hands.

And I am, very hopeful that Squouateur will get up his handicap hatrick in this.

5:30: The final race of the 2016 festival – and what a way to end things !

The handicaps are getting fiercer and fiercer each year – maximum fields in them all and virtually non that can be easily eliminated.

That is certainly the case in this – and once again, any short list, wouldn’t live up to its name.

I’ve taken two against the field.
The first is the Nicky Henderson trained Lough Kent.

Any horse trained by Henderson is of particular interest in this race, as it is run in memory of his father.

It’s therefore very interesting that Lough Kent is his only representative (he often comes to the race mob handed).

More than that, Lough Kent has a run which makes him very interesting indeed.
That was his seasonal debut back in November, when he finished unplaced in a 2 mile handicap chase over this course.

Superficially, it looks a nothing run – but Lough Kent was bang in contention that day, when he made a shocking blunder at the second last.

His rider lost his irons and so the horse did very well to finish as close as he did.

His only subsequent run this season, was on unsuitable soft ground at Newbury in November – so that can safely be ignored.

There can be little doubt that Lough Kent will have been targeted at this race – and his first time out run suggests he can go very close.

He’s relatively unexposed, so still has plenty of scope for improvement – and I tink that he represents a fair bet at 14/1.

The other one I want on side, is Savello…

He won this race in 2014, off mark of 147 – when trained by Tony Martin.

He is now trained by Dan Skelton – and gets to run off a mark of 150.

With his riders claim, that actually reduces to 145 – though in truth, I would rather have Davy Russell and an extra 5lb, than Bridget Andrews !

Still, we are where we are…

The bottom line is, that Savello is handicapped to go very close – and clearly has no issue with course and distance.

Skelton has been gradually bringing him to the boil this season – and he will get the quick ground today which is absolutely vital to him.

I think he has a live chance – and I think odds of 25/1 under-estimate him…

In fairness, there are hosts of dangers.

The Irish novices Velvet Maker and Rock the World are the most obvious – but it really is a long list.

I know plenty of you are already on Next Sensation (including me !) – and I’m sure he will give you a good run for your money.

Chris Pea Green, Ravens Tower and Red Spinner are 3 others who I gave consideration to – but ultimately I decided that two darts were enough !

Here’s hoping for a great day ahead !

TVB.

 

Tips

Cheltenham 2:10 Starchitect 0.25pt win 14/1

Cheltenham 4:10 Current Event 0.25pt win 20/1

Cheltenham 4:50 Squouateur 0.5pt win 5/1

Cheltenham 5:30 Lough Kent 0.25pt win 14/1

Cheltenham 5:30 Savello 0.125pt win 25/1

Eye Catchers

Cheltenham 1:30 Let’s Dance

Cheltenham 2:10 Kayf Blanco

Cheltenham 2:50 West Approach