Daily write-up - Mar 28th

There are 5 and a half NH meetings this afternoon: at Chepstow, Huntingdon, Market Rasen and Fakenham – plus Fairyhouse and half a meeting at Cork !

I know I’m sounding like a broken record – but the weather is ruining the racing again…

Having survived by the skin of its teeth yesterday, Plumpton had no such luck today – and has been washed away.

Chepstow is on - but only after passing an early morning inspection – and many of its fields have been decimated.

It’s a similar story at the other UK meetings – and it’s not as if there were particularly large field in the first place !

We are left with a raft of 3 and 4 runner races – which will be run on questionable ground.

Finding a bet/tip - particularly early - is almost impossible…

I guess I could have had a go at Fairyhouse, where the Irish National is being run this afternoon.

But again, I suspect there has been a lot of rain – so it’s anyones guess how the ground will be riding.

As a consequence, there are no tips – and not that many strong opinions.

However, there are 3 official eye catchers running, so they should at least give us something to look out for…

Market Rasen

2:25: I really wanted to tip Lucky Jim in this.

He was an eye catcher last time at Newbury, when running behind Mystifiable – and drops back in trip today (which is what I think he wants).

The handicapper has dropped him 5lb for his last time out run – which is very generous.

He opened up at 11/2 last night – which was a gift.

However, he is now a 3/1 shot – and that is tight…

I have 2 concerns with him: firstly the ground. I don’t know what it will be like at Market Rasen – but I do think Lucky Jim would prefer quick (ish) going.

Secondly, he takes on a couple of interesting rivals.
The biggest worry is Coozan George, who was as strong mention when running well on his chasing debut at Doncaster last time.

To a lesser extent, Neck or Nothing is also of interest.

I suspects that there might be a tiny bit of value in a quote of 3/1 about Lucky Jim – but it’s not easy to judge – and doesn’t feel worth the risk.

Hopefully a few of you secured the 11/2 last night, as I do think that was a very good bet.

Huntingdon

3:55: Dusky Lark is another who was an eye catcher last time: when running really well at Kempton.

He finished fourth in that race – but would have gone very close to winning if he hadn’t made a significant mistake at the third last.

I’m not quite as keen on Dusky Lark as I am on Lucky Jim - though I still would have been tempted to tip him at the 7/2 available last night.
By this morning however, he was a tight 11/4 – and you now can’t beat 9/4.

There are a couple of issues with him:

Firstly, he lacks consistency. Judged on his best form, I think he would be very hard to beat today. However, he doesn’t always run up to his best (and his poor runs have tended to come on soft ground).

Secondly, he faces a potential big improver, in the shape of Midnight Monty.

In truth, I think there is a danger that this one will be overbet – but all the same, I would be disinclined to take him on, unless I could get a price.

The reality is, that when you have a 5 runner field, you are never going to get much of a price on a fancied horse – but with doubt over the going and the opposition, I can’t see it makes sense to get involved.

Chepstow

3:30: The third official eye catcher running today, is Blanfords Gunner.

He caught the eye last time out, when finishing second to Fairy Rath at Sandown.

He looked that day as if he would appreciate a step up in trip - and he gets that this afternoon.

However, he also gets bottom-less ground at Chepstow – and it’s anyones guess whether he will be able to handle that.

His form suggests he might struggle – though you really only know when they try it…

Grey Gold has tried it before - and he handles it.
However, he is stepping up in trip this afternoon – and that will test his stamina.

He’s also not that well handicapped – though the booking of 5lb claimer, Ciaran Gethings will help in that regard.

Grey Gold normally runs in better races than this – so if he does stay the distance, I think he’s the one to beat.
That said, on heavy ground, any result is possible – particularly with a few interesting looking outsiders in the field...

4:40: This race has been decimated by Non runners.

My original fancy was Ned Stark – but he’s been scratched on account of the ground.

As with the previous race, no result would really shock me.

I would be prepared to take on Berea Boru, who is creeping up the handicap, though I’m not sure what with…

If the stable had rediscovered some form, I think Minella on Line could be a very good bet – but I would find it hard to support one of Rebecca Curtis’s at the moment.

Kayf Moss could be the one – but there is little margin in a best price of 3/1.

Another watching race, I’m afraid…

Fairyhouse

2:40: In the absence of Jers Girl, I think Rashaan could take this – if he is able to recapture his form of the autumn.
He’s been a little disappointing over the winter - though in truth, it now looks like he has been taking on some very good juveniles.

The other one that catches my eye, is Alterno.

There is a lot of guess work involved – but he won his only outing at Wexford on soft ground – and I like his connections.

It’s impossible to know how good he is – but the very fact he’s running in this race, suggests connections rate him.
At 25/1, he might be worth a tiny risk.

3:50: Seeing Ruby Walsh riding at 10st1lb in this, sets alarm bells ringing...
That’s his minimum weight, and you have to think he will struggle to make it.

Therefore, it seems fair to assume that his mount, Isleofhopendreams, has a good chance.

In truth, the horse is nearly impossible to assess – though it’s interesting that the market doesn’t seem quite so keen (it’s weaker than I would have expected),

If the money comes late (and it may well do), I suspect it will take the beating…

If money doesn’t materialise, then I would be most interested in the 2 Gigginstown horses.

Both are novices – and both have plenty of potential.

Dallas Cowboy is the obvious one, with Bryan Cooper on board – 14/1 seems a fair price.

However, I wouldn’t dismiss Just Cause, either. He has Jack Kennedy on board and could also offer a bit of value at 25/1.

5:00: The big race of the day is the Irish Grand National.

Two non runners still leaves a field of 27 – and its s bit of a minefield.

The defection of Cause of Causes, suggests that the ground is on the soft side.
I always felt his participation was a little odd – so soon after his Cheltenham win, for which he received a 12lb penalty in this.

I’ll be intrigued to see whether his jockey, Barry Geraghty, switches to Another Hero.

If he does, then he would be my selection for the race. In fact, if I knew now that he would be riding, I would tip him.

However, I don’t and I’m not prepared to take that risk.
Aside from Another Hero, then there are plenty in with a chance.

Needless to say, most are at the head of the market, so I won’t be telling you anything you can’t work out yourself, by listing their names.

If the ground was to ride on the quick side (and I think that’s very unlikely - but just in case !) – Jarob would be very interesting  at 33/1.

Whilst I would offer Kilford and Killer Crow as back to lay in running options.

The former has been transformed by front running tactics – and I could see him lasting quite a long time: whilst the latter will doubtless travel like the most likely winner for most of the race – but isn’t guaranteed to get home.

Best of luck if you do choose to get involved this afternoon.

TVB.

Advice Summary

Eye Catchers

Market Rasen 2:25 Lucky Jim

Huntingdon 3:55 Dusky Lark

Chepstow 3:30 Blanford Gunner